CrowdStrike Odds Board
$CRWD
Current Oddsmaker Reading
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Oddsmaker Score | -190 |
Market Average | +40 |
Percentile Rank | Bottom 2% |
Business Quality | Elite |
Valuation Risk | Extreme |
Multiple Risk | Extreme |
Crowdstrike double topped at 40x sales
Average software stocks
It is:
Cisco (2000)
Zoom (2021)
Snowflake (2021)
Datadog (2021)
Shopify (2021)
CrowdStrike (2021 peak)
Nvidia (selected periods)
Adobe (2021)
The common trait:
Exceptional businesses purchased at extraordinary valuations.
Our Odds & Probability of Beating the S&P Investing In Crowdstrike @ $780
Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Beat S&P 500 | 18% |
Underperform S&P 500 | 82% |
Beat S&P by 25%+ | 8% |
Beat S&P by 50%+ | 3% |
Positive Absolute Return | 42% |
Negative Absolute Return | 58% |
Probability Distribution
Moonshot Outcome
AI spending explodes.
CrowdStrike becomes cybersecurity infrastructure.
Valuation remains elevated.
Probability:
10%
Return:
+50% to +100%
Target:
$1,150–1,500
Bull Outcome
Company executes perfectly.
Growth remains above 20%.
Probability:
20%
Return:
+10% to +40%
Target:
$850–1,100
Base Outcome
Business wins.
Stock disappoints.
Multiple contracts.
Probability:
35%
Return:
-10% to -30%
Target:
$550–700
Bear Outcome
Growth slows.
Software multiples reset.
Probability:
25%
Return:
-30% to -50%
Target:
$350–550
Crash Outcome
Market abandons hyper-premium software.
Probability:
10%
Return:
-50% to -75%
Target:
$175–350
Expected Return Calculation
Scenario | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|
Moonshot | 10% | +75% |
Bull | 20% | +25% |
Base | 35% | -20% |
Bear | 25% | -40% |
Crash | 10% | -65% |
Expected Return:
= (0.10×75)+(0.20×25)+(0.35×-20)+(0.25×-40)+(0.10×-65)
Expected Return = -11%
Capital Destruction Dashboard
Event | Probability |
|---|---|
-20% Loss | 52% |
-30% Loss | 41% |
-40% Loss | 28% |
-50% Loss | 18% |
-60% Loss | 11% |
-70% Loss | 5% |
Multiple Compression Dashboard
Current EV/NTM Revenue:
30.8x
Historical Average:
19.1x
Future Multiple | Probability |
|---|---|
Below 25x | 80% |
Below 20x | 65% |
Below 15x | 40% |
Below 10x | 18% |
Odds of Various Outcomes
Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Great Company | 90% |
Great Product | 95% |
Positive Return | 42% |
Beat S&P | 18% |
50%+ Gain | 13% |
30%+ Decline | 41% |
50%+ Decline | 18% |
Multiple Compression | 80% |
The CrowdStruck Conclusion
The Oddsmaker is not saying CrowdStrike is a bad company.
The Oddsmaker is saying:
The market has already priced in the good news.
A -190 score places CrowdStrike among the most unfavorable risk/reward setups in the market despite being one of the highest-quality businesses in cybersecurity.
The odds suggest:
The company is likely to continue succeeding.
The stock is more likely than not to disappoint.
That distinction is the essence of CrowdStruck.
Investors are not buying cybersecurity.
They are buying perfection.
And historically, perfection has been one of the most expensive assets on Wall Street.