The Oddsmaker Best & Worst 1%
One Objective: Best & Worst 1% Stocks Based on Data Driven Insights
The Oddsmaker is a 100+ factor model on each stock and creates points on a both linear and non-linear scoring basis to flag outliers both high and low. The model calculates over 6.7 million data points for the overall market to give contextual understanding grading out stocks by data points ranked in percentiles relative to all stocks.
The Oddsmaker focuses on three.
1. Oddsmaker Score: Looks at 100 factors relative to the rest of public equity. Larger + score (better risk/reward) and most negative means (least intrinsic value)
Measures the relationship between price and business fundamentals.
2. Super Multiple Predictor: Is the business's multiple to high or too low for the business quality? + means should expand (too cheap) - means to high should contract (too expensive)
Measures the probability of future multiple expansion or compression.
3. Trifecta Ratio: A percentile ranking out of all public companies on Free Cash Flow Margin, Returns on Invested Capital, and Revenue Growth.
Measures the intersection of:
Revenue Growth
ROIC
Free Cash Flow Margin
The highest conviction opportunities occur when all three systems agree.
🎲 The Oddsmaker Best & Worst 1%
June 5, 2026
One Objective: Identify the Best & Worst 1% Stocks Using Data-Driven Insights
The Oddsmaker is a 100+ factor model that evaluates every stock using both linear and non-linear scoring methodologies. The model analyzes over 6.7 million data points to identify statistical outliers across the public equity universe.
The framework focuses on three independent engines:
1. Oddsmaker Score
Measures the relationship between price and business fundamentals.
2. Super Multiple Predictor
Measures the probability of future multiple expansion or compression.
3. Trifecta Ratio
A percentile ranking of:
Revenue Growth
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
Free Cash Flow Margin
The highest conviction opportunities occur when all three systems agree.
OM Score= Multiple Scoring Factors on Best Estimate of Current Intrinsic value
Super Multiple= Creates a grading curve for % ranking then adjusts for is the multiple too high or low: large negative scores suggest the business is set for a lower valuation and large positive scores suggests the business is worthy of a higher valuation
Trifecta Ratio: Blended ratio of FCF margin, growth, and Return on Invested Capital
🟢 Best 1% Long Candidates
🟢 The Oddsmaker Best 1% Long Candidates
🟢 Top 25 Longs
Rank | Ticker | June 5 Close | Price/SS Target | OM Score | Super Multiple | Trifecta Ratio |
1 | SLDE | $16.72 | 0.66x | 173.7 | 348.8 | 99.9% |
2 | AII | $16.94 | 0.69x | 170.4 | 340.3 | 99.8% |
3 | AUGO | $61.06 | 0.55x | 137.4 | 300.5 | 99.9% |
4 | KARO | $47.11 | 0.05x | 165.0 | 331.8 | 98.7% |
5 | CMCL | $20.14 | 0.45x | 145.0 | 301.5 | 98.6% |
6 | IMPP | $5.03 | 0.56x | 154.1 | 316.1 | 97.9% |
7 | NEM | $102.05 | 0.72x | 123.0 | 264.9 | 99.4% |
8 | GRND | $10.80 | 0.59x | 127.6 | 251.9 | 99.2% |
9 | BWMX | $18.20 | 0.03x | 134.2 | 297.5 | 98.1% |
10 | DLO | $11.41 | 0.63x | 115.7 | 261.2 | 99.7% |
11 | AEM | $166.21 | 0.66x | 119.8 | 255.1 | 99.3% |
12 | HCI | $156.00 | 0.64x | 146.3 | 293.6 | 97.0% |
13 | PLMR | $106.21 | 0.68x | 109.4 | 235.5 | 99.5% |
14 | AU | $85.61 | 0.71x | 103.7 | 252.8 | 99.7% |
15 | INTU | $294.67 | 0.60x | 120.7 | 240.3 | 97.0% |
16 | VINP | $9.78 | 0.14x | 155.0 | 295.5 | 93.8% |
17 | TREE | $35.91 | 0.53x | 131.3 | 259.9 | 94.5% |
18 | HLNE | $79.94 | 0.57x | 105.1 | 224.0 | 98.8% |
19 | TMDX | $71.50 | 0.60x | 110.1 | 213.3 | 98.4% |
20 | CDE | $16.80 | 0.62x | 107.2 | 240.3 | 97.0% |
21 | STNE | $10.61 | 0.12x | 180.0 | 324.7 | 92.4% |
22 | DAVE | $263.43 | 0.77x | 104.5 | 222.3 | 98.6% |
23 | KYIV | $13.69 | 0.02x | 110.0 | 241.9 | 95.8% |
24 | EXE | $92.95 | 0.70x | 120.1 | 247.8 | 94.4% |
25 | ADBE | $251.90 | 0.77x | 103.1 | 226.8 | 98.2% |
🟢 Best 1% Long Basket Characteristics
Metric | Average |
Price/SS Target | 0.54x |
OM Score | 131.7 |
Super Multiple | 277.8 |
Trifecta Ratio | 97.2% |
Median Long Stock
Metric | Value |
Price/SS Target | 0.62x |
OM Score | 123.0 |
Super Multiple | 261.2 |
Trifecta Ratio | 98.4% |
Long Basket Characteristics
✅ Trading at 46% discount to sell-side targets
✅ Average Trifecta Ratio in the 97th percentile
✅ Average Super Multiple of 278
✅ Strong free cash flow generation
✅ High ROIC businesses
✅ Significant multiple expansion potentia
OM score= Multiple Scoring Factors on Best Estimate of Current Intrinsic value
Super Multiple= Creates a grading curve for % ranking then adjusts for is the multiple too high or low: large negative scores suggest the business is set for a lower valuation and large positive scores suggests the business is worthy of a higher valuation
Trifecta Ratio: Blended ratio of FCF margin, growth, and Return on Invested Capital
🔴 Worst 1% Short Candidates
🔴 Top 25 Shorts
Rank | Ticker | June 5 Close | Price/SS Target | OM Score | Super Multiple | Trifecta Ratio |
1 | AEHR | $106.55 | 1.59x | -274.4 | -511.4 | 2.6% |
2 | FCEL | $18.36 | 2.23x | -281.8 | -339.9 | 3.0% |
3 | ALOY | $12.50 | 0.66x | -141.3 | -281.3 | 0.2% |
4 | AI | $10.30 | 1.17x | -186.6 | -245.2 | 1.2% |
5 | AGL | $94.02 | 1.54x | -137.9 | -286.7 | 2.2% |
6 | INFQ | $15.04 | 0.72x | -210.9 | -350.9 | 12.8% |
7 | NN | $21.82 | 0.55x | -113.2 | -253.2 | 0.1% |
8 | SWMR | $60.01 | 1.00x | -191.9 | -331.9 | 12.8% |
9 | NUAI | $4.91 | 0.45x | -109.9 | -249.9 | 0.5% |
10 | UEC | $12.99 | 0.68x | -75.1 | -315.1 | 1.2% |
11 | ALMU | $23.79 | 0.79x | -162.6 | -302.6 | 14.7% |
12 | LANV | $1.50 | 1.18x | -131.5 | -185.6 | 2.0% |
13 | SLDP | $3.02 | 0.43x | -76.0 | -216.0 | 0.4% |
14 | KEEL | $5.12 | 0.89x | -76.7 | -203.9 | 0.1% |
15 | MRLN | $8.81 | 0.68x | -118.9 | -212.5 | 12.8% |
16 | RIOT | $24.67 | 0.91x | -77.8 | -253.3 | 6.3% |
17 | MBOT | $1.89 | 0.27x | -91.6 | -162.9 | 1.6% |
18 | CIFR | $22.59 | 0.71x | -63.3 | -277.1 | 6.3% |
19 | CDZI | $4.23 | 0.36x | -94.4 | -174.9 | 6.0% |
20 | CV | $7.34 | 0.73x | -148.8 | -228.1 | 18.5% |
21 | ASTL | $5.12 | N/A | -79.0 | -132.0 | 0.2% |
22 | BBAI | $4.33 | 0.81x | -161.4 | -224.0 | 18.6% |
23 | DMRC | $13.45 | 1.17x | -145.5 | -204.4 | 17.3% |
24 | MSTR | $118.37 | 0.34x | -56.7 | -296.7 | 14.1% |
25 | SDGR | $14.93 | 0.72x | -74.1 | -131.5 | 1.6% |
🔴 Worst 1% Short Basket Characteristics
Metric | Average |
Price/SS Target* | 0.90x |
OM Score | -133.8 |
Super Multiple | -255.8 |
Trifecta Ratio | 5.5% |
*Excludes ASTL (N/A)
Median Short Stock
Metric | Value |
Price/SS Target | 0.76x |
OM Score | -128.4 |
Super Multiple | -245.1 |
Trifecta Ratio | 2.3% |
Short Basket Characteristics
❌ Average Trifecta Ratio in only the 5th percentile
❌ Average Super Multiple of -256
❌ Severe multiple compression risk
❌ Weak capital efficiency
❌ Poor free cash flow economics
❌ Significant disconnect between valuation and business quality
🎲 The Oddsmaker Spread
Metric | Best 1% Longs | Worst 1% Shorts | Spread |
Price/SS Target | 0.54x | 0.90x | 0.36x |
OM Score | 131.7 | -133.8 | 265.5 |
Super Multiple | 277.8 | -255.8 | 533.6 |
Trifecta Ratio | 97.2% | 5.5% | 91.7% |
Key Insight
The biggest differentiator is not Price/SS Target.
The biggest differentiators are:
Super Multiple Predictor (+278 vs. -256)
Trifecta Ratio (97% vs. 5%)
OM Score (+132 vs. -134)
This suggests the model is primarily identifying business quality and valuation rerating opportunities, rather than simply following Wall Street consensus targets.
When valuation, business quality, and multiple expansion/compression potential align, the probability of identifying the market's most attractive and least attractive opportunities increases dramatically.