🎲 #1 — BEST NOW
Credit Acceptance Corporation (CACC)
Why it moves to #1
Still misunderstood + under-owned
Proven through multiple credit cycles
Elite unit economics + pricing power
Risk / Reward
Scenario | Price | Return | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
Bear | -20% | Credit cycle hit | 25% |
Base | +25–40% | EPS growth + steady multiple | 50% |
Bull | +80–120% | Full rerating | 25% |
👉 Expected Value: 9.0 / 10
Edge
Market fears credit losses → history shows counter-cyclical strength
🎲 #2
LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA)
Why
Structural shift: advisors → independent platforms
Recurring revenue + operating leverage
Consolidator in a fragmented industry
Risk / Reward
Scenario | Price | Return | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
Bear | -20% | Market-driven slowdown | 25% |
Base | +30–50% | EPS compounding | 50% |
Bull | +70–100% | Multiple + M&A upside | 25% |
👉 Expected Value: 8.8 / 10
Edge
“Boring compounder” that quietly outperforms most high-growth names
🎲 #3
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR)
Why this is sneaky top-tier
Global trading growth tailwind
Massive operating leverage
Best-in-class cost structure
Risk / Reward
Scenario | Price | Return | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
Bear | -15% | Lower trading activity | 25% |
Base | +25–35% | Earnings growth | 50% |
Bull | +60–80% | Retail + global expansion | 25% |
👉 Expected Value: 8.5 / 10
Edge
One of the highest-quality financial platforms globally trading below true intrinsic value
🎲 WHY THESE 3 WIN (KEY INSIGHT)
👉 They all share:
High ROE businesses
Recurring or repeat-driven revenue
Misunderstood by the market
Not dependent on macro perfection