One Objective: Best & Worst 1% Stocks Based on Data Driven Insights

The Oddsmaker is a 100+ factor model on each stock and creates points on a both linear and non-linear scoring basis to flag outliers both high and low. The model calculates over 6.7 million data points for the overall market to give contextual understanding grading out stocks by data points ranked in percentiles relative to all stocks.

The Oddsmaker focuses on three.

1. Oddsmaker Score: Looks at 100 factors relative to the rest of public equity. Larger + score (better risk/reward) and most negative means (least intrinsic value)

Measures the relationship between price and business fundamentals.

2. Super Multiple Predictor: Is the business's multiple to high or too low for the business quality? + means should expand (too cheap) - means to high should contract (too expensive)

Measures the probability of future multiple expansion or compression.

3. Trifecta Ratio: A percentile ranking out of all public companies on Free Cash Flow Margin, Returns on Invested Capital, and Revenue Growth.

Measures the intersection of:

The highest conviction opportunities occur when all three systems agree..

This week's best ideas cluster in cash-generative value, with 44% sitting in Energy and Financials (GPOR, IMPP, CF, DAVE, SEZL, RELY), and even the Information Technology names (28%) skew toward already-profitable franchises like NVDA, DELL, and SNDK rather than story stocks. The common thread is strong free cash flow and ROIC paired with positive estimate revisions — durable quality the market is underpricing, reflected in an average ~22% implied upside and top-decile Trifecta percentiles.

The short list is overwhelmingly a speculative-technology trade — 60% Information Technology plus another 28% Industrials (~88% combined) — concentrated in pre-profit themes like quantum computing (QBTS, ATOM), eVTOL and space (SPCE, JOBY, ACHR, RDW), crypto miners and AI data centers (HUT, WULF, APLD, AI), and nuclear SMRs (SMR, FCEL). These names share deeply negative Oddsmaker Scores and Super Multiples, negative ROIC and free cash flow, and prices stretched well above target — hype-driven stocks the market is overcrowding, with an average ~34% implied downside.

A 268-point spread between the top and bottom OM cohorts (+105.6 vs. −162.8) puts the market squarely in a high-dispersion, quality-discrimination regime — the most fundamentals-driven of the five conditions, where capital is actively separating real businesses from stories rather than lifting everything together. In this environment the factors doing the heavy lifting are estimate revisions, free-cash-flow generation, and ROIC: the model is being rewarded for distinguishing cash quality, not chasing price. When the cohort spread is this wide, the long and short books carry their strongest signal of the cycle.

Roughly 88% of the short book is speculative technology — 60% Information Technology and 28% Industrials — concentrated in pre-profit themes like quantum computing, eVTOL and space, crypto miners, AI data centers, and nuclear SMRs (QBTS, SPCE, HUT, AI, SMR). Factor-wise these are the lowest-intrinsic-value names in the market: deeply negative Oddsmaker Scores and Super Multiples, negative ROIC and free cash flow, bottom-decile Trifecta percentiles, and prices stretched well above target — an average ~34% implied downside. This is where the market's attention and dollars are crowding, and where the model sees the least underlying worth.

By contrast, 44% of the long book sits in Energy and Financials, with even the 28% IT weighting skewing to already-profitable franchises (NVDA, DELL, SNDK). These are the names the market is least interested in — unglamorous, cash-generative, and cheap — yet they carry the most intrinsic value: strong FCF margins and ROIC, positive estimate revisions, top-decile Trifecta percentiles, and an average ~22% implied upside. The setup is a classic dispersion trade: durable cash flow being ignored on the long side while hype absorbs capital on the short side.

These are stocks we are tracking now that are close to being ranked in the Top 25 Best and Worst over the coming weeks.

Disclosure & Disclaimer

The Oddsmaker is a financial media and research publication provided for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or legal, tax, or accounting advice. The Oddsmaker, its affiliates, employees, contributors, related parties, and associated accounts may hold long, short, or other positions in securities discussed and may buy or sell such securities without notice. Any scores, rankings, ratings, probabilities, expected returns, forecasts, analytics, models, simulations, or backtested results are hypothetical analytical opinions based on assumptions and methodologies that may prove incorrect. They are not guarantees of future performance or outcomes. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, The Oddsmaker makes no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting qualified financial, legal, tax, and accounting professionals before making investment decisions.

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