State of the Longs

The Top 25 longs tell a coherent macro story: the model is positioned for a "Great Rotation" into value and cash flow, not a continuation of the momentum-growth leadership that defined the first half of 2026. The book averages a +105.2 Oddsmaker Score and +216.5 Super Multiple with four strict passes (BWMX, AFYA at Scores ≥134/SMP ≥273, plus DEC and RNW), and its defining trait is cheapness paired with quality — even the nine Information Technology longs (MU, JBL, SNX, KARO, PGY, PRGS, GEN, ADBE, NVDA) trade at just ~3.1x forward EV/Sales and ~7.6x forward EV/EBITDA, the profitable low-multiple minority rather than the expensive AI complex. The rest of the book leans into value cyclicals and international/consumer names: Communication Services (GRND, KYIV, CARG, MNTN, avg OM2 84.5), Consumer Discretionary (BWMX, AFYA, LAUR, LVS), Energy (PARR, DEC), and Financials (LC, HG) — a lineup that mirrors the full universe, where Financials (+68.7 avg Score), Energy (+57.1), and Consumer Discretionary (+44.8) rank highest and IT sits last at +13.5. Macro-wise, this reads as a market broadening out: a Goldilocks labor backdrop (June payrolls softening to ~57K, unemployment easing to 4.2%) and a dovish Fed (Warsh signaling eased inflation risk) that pushes yields lower and rewards rate-sensitive, reasonably-priced businesses, while stretched semis and mega-cap tech get sold on valuation. In short, the long book is betting that leadership rotates from crowded, richly-valued growth toward under-owned, profitable value across cyclicals and cheap tech — a late-cycle broadening trade rather than a defensive one, since the names skew toward economically-sensitive earnings power rather than bond-proxy safety.

The Top 1% Longs (25 Best Stocks Right Now)

THE SIX PATHS TO RETURN IN THIS BOOK

  1. Cheap Semis & Electronics Supply Chain (MU, JBL, SNX) — low-multiple hardware riding the memory/AI-infrastructure upcycle, all with near-perfect revision scores (RAVG 97-99) and strong momentum (TRS 79-99).

  2. De-rated Quality Software Compounders (ADBE, NVDA, GEN, PRGS) — elite earnings quality and capital allocation (EQS/CAS in the 80s-90s) where fundamentals are outrunning a compressed multiple.

  3. International / ADR Deep Value (KYIV, AFYA, BWMX, KARO, CPA, RNW) — foreign compounders with the book's highest raw Scores (up to 165) and Super Multiples (up to 318), at fractions of domestic peers.

  4. Digital Platforms & Consumer GARP (GRND, CARG, MNTN, LAUR, UBER, LVS) — profitable growth platforms with balanced fingerprints and strong forward revenue/margin scores (FRM 76-98).

  5. Value Cyclicals — Energy & Materials (PARR, CF, DEC) — capital-allocation and revision leaders (CAS 92-94, RAVG 95-98) levered to commodity/energy tailwinds.

  6. Fintech & Insurance Re-rating (PGY, LC, HG) — high Score/SMP financials the model reads as mispriced on normalizing earnings power.

In rank order:

  1. MU — Micron Technology (IT / Path 1 — Near Pass). Rank rationale: top OM2 (88.6) on a rare all-cylinders profile — Score +105.5, SMP +237, 99th-percentile FRM/RAVG/TRS, 57.3% ROIC, 98.3% Trifecta Ratio. What the market sees: a cyclical memory name that just ran hard, now sold on AI-valuation fears. What it is: the leading US maker of DRAM and NAND, a core beneficiary of AI-server HBM demand. Why it could explode: (1) HBM/DRAM pricing in a structural up-cycle with revisions still climbing; (2) 5.2x fwd EV/EBITDA and 0.66x SS target — cheap for the growth; (3) 57% ROIC shows the cycle is translating to real returns. Biggest risk: memory is famously cyclical — a demand air-pocket compresses estimates and multiple fast (weak OLI of 36). Verdict: highest-conviction long; the cleanest "cheap + accelerating" name in the book.

  2. GRND — Grindr (Communication Services / Path 4 — Composite). Rank rationale: #2 OM2 (88.1) on the most balanced fingerprint in the book — every factor 80-90 (EQS 88, CAS 90, RAVG 90). What the market sees: a niche dating app, small ~$2.9B cap, net debt (Net Cash/MC -13%). What it is: the largest LGBTQ social/dating platform, high-margin subscription model. Why it could explode: (1) 99.3% Trifecta Ratio — near-highest composite quality; (2) 18.8% ROIC with pricing power; (3) uniform 80s+ factors, no weak leg to break. Biggest risk: leverage plus single-app concentration; monetization missteps hit a small float hard. Verdict: quietly the most well-rounded name here — strong buy on breadth, not one hot factor.

  3. KYIV — Kyivstar Group (Communication Services / Path 3 — Near Pass). Rank rationale: Score +110, SMP +235, FRM 96, RAVG 93, TRS 89. What the market sees: a Ukrainian telecom with obvious war-zone risk. What it is: Ukraine's largest mobile/telecom operator, recently US-listed. Why it could explode: (1) 5.1x fwd EV/EBITDA for a dominant national carrier; (2) 96 FRM on reconstruction/ARPU tailwinds; (3) any de-escalation re-rates a deeply discounted asset. Biggest risk: existential geopolitical exposure — the discount is the war. Verdict: high-reward asymmetric ADR; size it as the risk-on bet it is (P/SS is a local-currency artifact).

  4. BWMX — Betterware de México (Consumer Discretionary / Path 3 — Strict Pass). Rank rationale: one of four strict passes — Score +134, SMP +293, RAVG 91, CAS 87, OLI 80. What the market sees: a small Mexican direct-to-consumer seller most US investors ignore. What it is: a home-goods and beauty direct-sales/catalog business in Mexico. Why it could explode: (1) clears every backtested hard gate — highest-confidence tier; (2) 91 revisions + 87 capital allocation; (3) 98.1% Trifecta Ratio on a sub-$1B cap. Biggest risk: FX and Mexican consumer cyclicality; the extreme Net Cash/MC (-606%) flags data-scaling noise — verify the balance sheet. Verdict: strict-pass conviction, but do the ADR/FX diligence before sizing.

  5. AFYA — Afya Limited (Consumer Discretionary / Path 3 — Strict Pass). Rank rationale: strict pass on Score +140 / SMP +274, with RAVG 90, CAS 84, OLI 77. What the market sees: a Brazilian for-profit education name with currency baggage. What it is: Brazil's leading medical-education group (med schools + digital physician tools). Why it could explode: (1) defensive, regulated, high-demand vertical with pricing power; (2) 7.8% ROIC and strong revisions; (3) clears all long gates at an 89.2% Trifecta Ratio. Biggest risk: Brazilian regulatory/FX risk and education-policy shifts. Verdict: strict-pass quality compounder; durable demand, not a trade.

  6. CARG — CarGurus (Communication Services / Path 4 — Composite). Rank rationale: OM2 82.8 on top-tier quality — EQS 90, CAS 94, 29.2% ROIC. What the market sees: an online auto marketplace facing a soft used-car cycle. What it is: the leading US auto-shopping marketplace (lead-gen + dealer SaaS). Why it could explode: (1) 94 capital allocation and 29% ROIC — best-in-class economics; (2) 96.6% Trifecta Ratio; (3) asset-light model with operating leverage as auto demand normalizes. Biggest risk: dealer-marketing budgets are cyclical; a used-car downturn pressures the core. Verdict: high-quality platform buy; the model is paying for return on capital, not momentum.

  7. MNTN — MNTN, Inc. (Communication Services / Path 4 — Composite). Rank rationale: OM2 82.0 driven by a 98 FRM plus 26% Net Cash/MC. What the market sees: a recently-public connected-TV ad-tech name with a short track record. What it is: a performance CTV advertising software platform. Why it could explode: (1) 98 forward revenue/margin — one of the fastest accelerators here; (2) net cash funds growth; (3) CTV ad-dollar migration is a secular tailwind. Biggest risk: lowest Trifecta Ratio in the top tier (63.2%) and a young, unproven public model. Verdict: growth call — buy the acceleration, but least "quality-proven" of the platforms.

  8. PARR — Par Pacific Holdings (Energy / Path 5 — Composite). Rank rationale: OM2 81.1 on CAS 94, RAVG 95, FRM 90 — a cyclical firing on revisions and capital returns. What the market sees: a small, complex refiner/logistics operator. What it is: Hawaii/Rockies refining, retail, and logistics with a growing renewables angle. Why it could explode: (1) 95 revisions + 94 capital allocation as crack spreads hold; (2) 4.0x fwd EV/EBITDA — cheap; (3) niche island-market pricing power. Biggest risk: refining margins are volatile and OLI is weak (39). Verdict: cyclical value with real capital-return support; a margins-and-buyback story.

  9. CF — CF Industries (Materials / Path 5 — Near Pass). Rank rationale: Score +101, SMP +233, CAS 92, 97.6% Trifecta Ratio. What the market sees: a commodity fertilizer producer at the mercy of nitrogen prices. What it is: a global leader in nitrogen/ammonia with a low-cost North American gas position. Why it could explode: (1) 92 capital allocation with aggressive buybacks; (2) cheap gas feedstock = margin advantage; (3) clean-ammonia optionality as a future demand leg. Biggest risk: nitrogen pricing and nat-gas cost swings drive the whole P&L. Verdict: near-pass cyclical compounder; buy the low-cost position and shareholder returns.

  10. LAUR — Laureate Education (Consumer Discretionary / Path 4 — Composite). Rank rationale: OM2 80.9 on broad strength — EQS 82, CAS 86, RAVG 88, 96.8% Trifecta Ratio. What the market sees: a slimmed-down education operator post-restructuring. What it is: private higher-ed universities concentrated in Mexico and Peru. Why it could explode: (1) 18% ROIC with strong revisions and capital discipline; (2) leading share in growing LatAm education markets; (3) 96.8% quality composite. Biggest risk: regulatory and FX exposure across two emerging markets. Verdict: high-quality EM education compounder; steady rather than explosive, but well-supported.

  11. JBL — Jabil (IT / Path 1 — Composite). Rank rationale: OM2 80.1 with RAVG 97 and TRS 79 — a supply-chain name riding AI-server builds. What the market sees: a low-margin contract manufacturer. What it is: one of the largest global electronics manufacturing/design partners, increasingly AI-infrastructure-levered. Why it could explode: (1) 97 revisions as AI hardware orders flow through; (2) 0.95x fwd EV/Sales — classic cheap-on-sales manufacturer; (3) 16.6% ROIC, high for the model. Biggest risk: thin margins mean customer concentration and any AI-capex pause bite hard. Verdict: cheap, revision-driven AI-supply-chain proxy — a value way to own the buildout.

  12. ADBE — Adobe (IT / Path 2 — Near Pass). Rank rationale: Score +109, SMP +238, EQS 92, CAS 96, RAVG 96 — elite fundamentals, but TRS just 9. What the market sees: a former darling punished on AI-disruption fear (the low momentum). What it is: the dominant creative/document software franchise (Creative Cloud, Acrobat). Why it could explode: (1) 39.5% ROIC and 96 capital allocation — a cash machine; (2) 6.8x fwd EV/EBITDA, historically cheap for Adobe; (3) 98.4% Trifecta Ratio with revisions still rising. Biggest risk: the market's whole worry — generative-AI competition to its creative moat (that 9 momentum score). Verdict: the book's best quality-value disconnect; a contrarian buy where fundamentals and price have diverged.

  13. UBER — Uber (Industrials / Path 4 — Composite). Rank rationale: OM2 79.6 on uniformly strong operating factors (EQS 84, FRM 88, CAS 88) but weak momentum (TRS 29). What the market sees: a maturing mega-cap that's stalled after a big run. What it is: the global rideshare + delivery platform, now consistently FCF-positive. Why it could explode: (1) 23.6% ROIC and 88 capital allocation as profitability compounds; (2) 95.3% Trifecta Ratio; (3) autonomy optionality plus advertising as new margin legs. Biggest risk: the low TRS says price has gone nowhere — needs a catalyst to re-rate. Verdict: high-quality mega-cap compounder waiting on momentum; buy the fundamentals, be patient.

  14. LVS — Las Vegas Sands (Consumer Discretionary / Path 4 — Near Pass). Rank rationale: Score +118, SMP +228, FRM 84, RAVG 82 — but TRS just 11. What the market sees: a Macau-levered casino stuck in a recovery that's tested patience. What it is: premium integrated resorts in Macau and Singapore. Why it could explode: (1) strong Score/SMP as Asian gaming revenue recovers; (2) Marina Bay Sands expansion adds a growth leg; (3) 94.4% Trifecta Ratio on improving revisions. Biggest risk: China/Macau policy and consumer softness — plus the weak 11 momentum. Verdict: near-pass recovery play on Asian gaming; fundamentals lead price here.

  15. KARO — Karooooo (IT / Path 3 — Near Pass). Rank rationale: the book's highest raw Score (+165) and SMP (+318), yet OM2 only 79.3 because RAVG is a weak 20. What the market sees: a thinly-covered South African telematics ADR. What it is: Cartrack's parent — fleet/vehicle telematics SaaS across emerging markets. Why it could explode: (1) extreme Score/SMP — deepest value signal in the book; (2) 97.4% Trifecta Ratio with recurring SaaS revenue; (3) 0.63x fwd EV/EBITDA screams mispricing. Biggest risk: the 20 revision score — estimates aren't yet moving up — plus EM/liquidity risk. Verdict: deepest-value ADR; huge Score but the low RAVG is why it's #15, not #1 — needs revisions to catch up.

  16. NVDA — NVIDIA (IT / Path 2 — Composite). Rank rationale: OM2 79.1 on pristine quality — EQS 92, FRM 96, RAVG 91, 104.9% ROIC, 99.7% Trifecta Ratio (highest in the book) — held back only by 42 momentum and a 10.75x fwd EV/Sales. What the market sees: the AI poster child, now the epicenter of the "is it a bubble" debate. What it is: the dominant AI/accelerated-computing GPU platform. Why it could explode: (1) unmatched 105% ROIC and 96 forward growth; (2) 99.7% Trifecta Ratio — the model's single best quality name; (3) revisions still positive (91). Biggest risk: the richest multiple in the book (10.8x sales) — the valuation the whole short book is fading. Verdict: elite business, priciest long; included on quality, but the one name where the bull and macro-bear theses collide.

  17. CPA — Copa Holdings (Industrials / Path 3 — Composite). Rank rationale: OM2 79.1 on RAVG 96 and TRS 82 — a well-run airline with rising estimates. What the market sees: a Latin American airline, historically a tough category. What it is: Panama-based hub carrier (Tocumen), one of the industry's most profitable operators. Why it could explode: (1) 96 revisions as LatAm travel demand holds; (2) best-in-class airline margins/discipline; (3) 6.0x fwd EV/EBITDA. Biggest risk: fuel costs and regional demand cyclicality; lower Trifecta Ratio (73.7%). Verdict: the rare quality airline; a revisions-and-execution buy in a skeptical sector.

  18. LC — LendingClub (Financials / Path 6 — Near Pass). Rank rationale: Score +91, SMP +211, FRM 93, EQS 82, plus 34.8% net cash. What the market sees: a digital consumer lender sensitive to rates and credit. What it is: a marketplace/bank consumer-lending platform. Why it could explode: (1) 93 forward growth as loan demand and marketplace funding recover; (2) strong net-cash position; (3) rate-cut expectations (the current macro) directly help originations. Biggest risk: consumer credit deterioration in a slowing labor market — plus the data-quality flag on this row. Verdict: promising fintech re-rating candidate, but verify the row before acting.

  19. PGY — Pagaya Technologies (IT/Fintech / Path 6 — Near Pass). Rank rationale: Score +101, SMP +232, RAVG 87, TRS 81 — but CAS a weak 44. What the market sees: an AI-credit-underwriting name with a complex ABS-funded model. What it is: an AI lending-network platform matching loans to institutional funding. Why it could explode: (1) strong Score/SMP with 93% Trifecta Ratio; (2) 22.5% net cash; (3) AI-underwriting scaling with lender partners. Biggest risk: the 44 capital-allocation score and funding-market dependence — credit spreads are the whole business. Verdict: high-signal but structurally riskier fintech; a momentum-plus-revisions trade, not a quality hold.

  20. HG — Hamilton Insurance Group (Financials / Path 6 — Near Pass). Rank rationale: Score +111, SMP +213, EQS 81, with 20.3% net cash. What the market sees: an under-followed Bermuda specialty insurer/reinsurer. What it is: a global specialty (re)insurance and Lloyd's underwriter with an investment-book angle. Why it could explode: (1) hard insurance-pricing cycle drives book-value growth; (2) 15.7% ROIC and strong balance sheet; (3) cheap at ~1.0x SS target with rising Score. Biggest risk: catastrophe losses and reserve volatility; lower Trifecta Ratio (70.6%). Verdict: solid specialty-insurance re-rating; buy the hard market and book-value compounding.

  21. PRGS — Progress Software (IT / Path 2 — Composite). Rank rationale: OM2 78.8 on RAVG 90, CAS 82 — a steady, cash-generative software roll-up. What the market sees: a low-growth "boring" infrastructure-software name. What it is: an acquisitive enterprise infrastructure/dev-tools software company. Why it could explode: (1) 90 revisions with disciplined M&A-driven cash flow; (2) 7.1x fwd EV/EBITDA — cheap software; (3) 86.5% Trifecta Ratio. Biggest risk: high leverage (Net Cash/MC -78%) and organic-growth skepticism. Verdict: durable cash-compounder at a value multiple; the classic "profitable, unloved software" the model favors.

  22. SNX — TD SYNNEX (IT / Path 1 — Composite). Rank rationale: OM2 78.6 on RAVG 99 and TRS 88 — top-decile revisions and momentum in IT distribution. What the market sees: a razor-thin-margin tech distributor. What it is: one of the largest global IT product/solutions distributors. Why it could explode: (1) 99 revisions as enterprise/AI hardware demand flows through the channel; (2) 0.30x fwd EV/Sales — extremely cheap on sales; (3) 88 momentum confirms the tape agrees. Biggest risk: wafer-thin margins amplify any demand or working-capital shock. Verdict: cheap, revision-and-momentum-driven channel play on the hardware cycle.

  23. DEC — Diversified Energy (Energy / Path 5 — Strict Pass). Rank rationale: strict pass — Score +138, SMP +234, FRM 97, RAVG 98 — but low TRS 27. What the market sees: a mature-well gas producer with a heavy debt/decommissioning profile. What it is: an operator of long-life, low-decline producing gas wells with a high-yield model. Why it could explode: (1) clears all long gates with 97-98 growth/revisions; (2) hedged cash flow supports a large distribution; (3) strengthening gas prices lift the whole thesis. Biggest risk: leverage and asset-retirement liabilities (extreme Net Cash/MC -274% flags this) — a balance-sheet story. Verdict: strict-pass income-and-revisions play; highest-conviction tier, but debt is the watch item.

  24. RNW — ReNew Energy Global (Utilities / Path 3 — Strict Pass). Rank rationale: strict pass — Score +140, SMP +231, RAVG 92, OLI 66 — though EQS a weak 22 and Trifecta Ratio low (45.6%). What the market sees: a capital-intensive Indian renewables developer with heavy project debt. What it is: one of India's largest wind/solar independent power producers. Why it could explode: (1) clears every hard gate at a +140 Score; (2) 92 revisions on India's renewable buildout; (3) secular EM clean-energy demand. Biggest risk: enormous leverage (the Net Cash/MC figure is a debt/data artifact) and weak earnings quality (22 EQS). Verdict: strict-pass by the rules, but the lowest-quality name in the top tier — own the growth, respect the balance sheet.

  25. GEN — Gen Digital (IT / Path 2 — Near Pass). Rank rationale: Score +99, SMP +208, FRM 86, TRS 77, 96.4% Trifecta Ratio — strong except a weak RAVG of 20. What the market sees: a mature consumer-cybersecurity roll-up (Norton/Avast) with modest growth. What it is: consumer cyber-safety and identity-protection subscriptions. Why it could explode: (1) 96.4% Trifecta Ratio with sticky, high-margin subscriptions; (2) 86 forward growth from identity/financial-wellness cross-sell; (3) reliable FCF funds buybacks. Biggest risk: the 20 revision score — estimates aren't rising — and leverage (Net Cash/MC -49%). Verdict: dependable subscription cash-compounder rounding out the book; buy the quality, but revisions need to turn for a real re-rate.

Thank you for reading. Come back next week for a new round of the 1% Best Stocks in the market.

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The Oddsmaker is a financial media and research publication provided for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or legal, tax, or accounting advice. The Oddsmaker, its affiliates, employees, contributors, related parties, and associated accounts may hold long, short, or other positions in securities discussed and may buy or sell such securities without notice. Any scores, rankings, ratings, probabilities, expected returns, forecasts, analytics, models, simulations, or backtested results are hypothetical analytical opinions based on assumptions and methodologies that may prove incorrect. They are not guarantees of future performance or outcomes. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, The Oddsmaker makes no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting qualified financial, legal, tax, and accounting professionals before making investment decisions.

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