State of the Shorts
The Top 25 shorts are a near-pure bet against expensive, cash-burning technology — 22 of 25 names are Information Technology, and all seven strict-pass shorts (AEHR, HUT, ALAB, NVTS, WULF, AXTI, CRWD) sit there too. The book averages a −118.6 Oddsmaker Score and −230 Super Multiple, and the fundamentals underneath explain the conviction: the IT shorts trade at roughly 18.9x forward EV/Sales — about 6x the ~3.1x multiple on the IT longs — while generating an average ROIC of −44.6%, carrying Multiple Compression Risk of 81.8, Behavioral Dislocation Risk of 87.8, and Volatility/Squeeze Risk of 78.9. This is the crowded AI-infrastructure and crypto-miner complex specifically: AI-silicon and data-center names (AEHR, ALAB, NVTS, AXTI, MRAM, MXL, CEVA, AMBQ), high-multiple software (CRWD, DDOG, VRNS), and bitcoin miners pivoting to AI hosting (HUT, RIOT, WULF, CORZ, APLD). The only non-IT shorts — HIMS and BFLY in Health Care, BE in Industrials — share the identical fingerprint: unprofitable, story-driven names priced for perfection. What this shows macro-wise is that the model reads the biggest risk in the market as valuation-and-quality dislocation at the top of the AI trade, not broad economic weakness — the shorts are stretched growth names whose prices have run far ahead of profitability (hence the elevated behavioral-dislocation scores), and the fact that they got hit hardest in this week's rotation into Dow cyclicals confirms the thesis is already playing out. In short, the short book is the mirror image of the long book: where the longs express "cheap, profitable, under-owned," the shorts express "expensive, loss-making, crowded," and together they position for a continued unwind of the concentrated AI/semiconductor leadership that drove the first-half melt-up.
The Top 1% Shorts (25 Worst Stocks Right Now)
THE SHORT BOOK IN ONE LINE: 22 of 25 are Information Technology, split between AI-silicon/data-center hardware, high-multiple software, and crypto-miners-turned-AI-hosts — all priced for perfection, most losing money (average ROIC deeply negative).
AEHR — Aehr Test Systems (IT — Strict Pass, OM2s 95.0). The story: a tiny semiconductor test-equipment maker repositioned as an AI/silicon-carbide picks-and-shovels play. Why investors are excited: leverage to SiC and AI-chip burn-in testing, a small float that moves violently on any order news. Why the model hates it: worst-ranked short in the book — Score −179, SMP −382, 26.6x fwd EV/Sales, 451x EV/EBITDA, −8.2% ROIC, and a 2.5% Trifecta Ratio (near-lowest FCF-margin/ROIC/growth composite anywhere). Bull case: (1) SiC/AI test demand inflects; (2) 12.7% short interest + 4.87 beta = squeeze fuel; (3) niche monopoly-ish position in wafer-level test. Bear case: (1) trades at 26x sales on negative returns; (2) price is 1.68x the OM target, 1.02x SS — no margin of safety; (3) 96 volatility/squeeze score cuts both ways and revisions are weak. Verdict: the model's highest-conviction short — a lottery-ticket valuation on an unprofitable micro-cap; size for the squeeze risk.
HUT — Hut 8 Corp. (IT/crypto-miner — Strict Pass, OM2s 91.8). The story: a bitcoin miner pivoting into AI/HPC data-center hosting. Why investors are excited: the "miner-to-AI-hosting" re-rate narrative plus bitcoin beta. Why the model hates it: Score −146, SMP −345, 32.6x EV/Sales, −18.1% ROIC, −0.19 FCF/EV (burning cash), CAS just 10. Bull case: (1) AI-hosting contracts could re-rate the multiple; (2) bitcoin upside; (3) 11.8% short interest + 3.78 beta squeeze potential. Bear case: (1) 32x sales for a capital-intensive, negative-return business; (2) negative free cash flow; (3) price 1.49x OM target. Verdict: strict-pass short on valuation and cash burn; the AI-pivot hope is doing all the work holding the price up.
ALAB — Astera Labs (IT/AI-silicon — Strict Pass, OM2s 91.3). The story: the marquee AI connectivity-silicon name (retimers, smart cabling) for data-center scale-up. Why investors are excited: pure-play AI-infrastructure exposure with real growth and 90 EQS/20.8% ROIC — this one is actually profitable. Why the model hates it: valuation, not quality — Score −175, SMP −355, 39.0x fwd EV/Sales, 100x EV/EBITDA, a 100 Behavioral Dislocation score, and price 1.65x both OM and SS targets. Bull case: (1) best fundamentals of any short (99% Trifecta Ratio, 20.8% ROIC); (2) secular AI-connectivity tailwind; (3) high-quality growth that can grow into the multiple. Bear case: (1) 39x sales is priced for flawless execution; (2) 100 behavioral-dislocation — the most stretched-vs-targets name here; (3) any AI-capex wobble compresses it hardest. Verdict: the highest-quality short and therefore the most dangerous — this is a valuation short on a good company, best paired against a long, not held naked.
AIP — Arteris (IT/semi-IP — Near Pass, OM2s 90.6). The story: a network-on-chip IP licensor levered to custom-silicon and AI SoC design. Why investors are excited: royalty-model optionality as more chips get designed. Why the model hates it: −640% ROIC, 3,466x EV/EBITDA (effectively no earnings), 16.4x sales, CAS 13. Bull case: (1) IP royalties scale with design wins; (2) small-cap re-rate potential; (3) AI-SoC proliferation. Bear case: (1) deeply negative returns on capital; (2) 1.35x OM target; (3) 88 compression + 92 dislocation risk. Verdict: near-pass short on an unprofitable IP story priced well ahead of economics.
MXL — MaxLinear (IT/semis — Near Pass, OM2s 89.9). The story: a communications/broadband chipmaker pitched on infrastructure and connectivity recovery. Why investors are excited: cyclical rebound hopes and content-gain stories. Why the model hates it: Score −137, SMP −239, −21.2% ROIC, 12.1x sales, 99 Behavioral Dislocation, price 1.45x OM / 1.49x SS. Bull case: (1) chip-cycle recovery lifts estimates; (2) 3.06 beta squeeze potential; (3) 62 FRM hints at a growth inflection. Bear case: (1) negative ROIC at 45x EBITDA; (2) among the most stretched vs targets; (3) weak capital allocation (CAS 26). Verdict: near-pass short — a loss-making cyclical priced for a recovery that hasn't shown up in returns.
NBIS — Nebius Group (IT/AI-cloud — Near Pass, OM2s 89.7). The story: the ex-Yandex "neocloud" renting GPU capacity for AI. Why investors are excited: one of the purest AI-compute-capacity plays with explosive revenue growth. Why the model hates it: −0.44 FCF/EV (heavy cash burn on GPU capex), 10.5x sales, 94 Volatility/Squeeze, 19.9% short interest, 2.98 beta. Bull case: (1) AI-compute demand is real and NBIS has capacity; (2) huge short interest = squeeze risk; (3) sovereign/enterprise AI contracts. Bear case: (1) massively negative free cash flow funding capex; (2) 1.31x OM target; (3) commodity-GPU-rental economics under pressure as supply grows. Verdict: near-pass short on cash burn and valuation — but the 19.9% short interest makes it the single most squeeze-prone name; handle with care.
NVTS — Navitas Semiconductor (IT/GaN-SiC — Strict Pass, OM2s 89.2). The story: gallium-nitride/silicon-carbide power chips pitched on AI-datacenter power and EVs. Why investors are excited: an NVIDIA power-partner narrative and electrification tailwind. Why the model hates it: worst Score in the book (−254), SMP −394, 70.3x fwd EV/Sales (highest here), −34.6% ROIC, negative EBITDA, price 2.35x OM target. Bull case: (1) AI-power-delivery design wins; (2) 15.3% short interest + 4.18 beta; (3) GaN adoption curve. Bear case: (1) 70x sales on deeply negative returns is extreme; (2) 2.35x OM target — furthest above target in the book; (3) tiny profits, big losses. Verdict: strict-pass short — the most valuation-detached name; a violent squeeze risk wrapped around a broken income statement.
DDOG — Datadog (IT/software — Near Pass, OM2s 89.0). The story: the premium cloud-observability platform, a quality SaaS compounder. Why investors are excited: durable growth, high retention, AI-observability upside. Why the model hates it: 96 Multiple Compression + 95 Behavioral Dislocation — 77x EV/EBITDA, 19.6x sales, only 2.7% ROIC despite an 88.9% Trifecta Ratio; FRM is a weak 33. Bull case: (1) best-in-class SaaS with 72 EQS; (2) AI-monitoring TAM expansion; (3) low beta (1.18) makes it a "safer" short-hedge. Bear case: (1) 19.6x sales for decelerating growth (FRM 33); (2) 1.21x OM target; (3) among the highest compression-risk scores here. Verdict: near-pass short — a great company at a multiple the model reads as unsustainable; a valuation-normalization short, not a broken-business short.
RIOT — Riot Platforms (IT/crypto-miner — Composite, OM2s 88.8). The story: a large bitcoin miner with an AI/HPC data-center pivot. Why investors are excited: bitcoin beta plus AI-hosting optionality. Why the model hates it: Score −49, −25.4% ROIC, −0.08 FCF/EV, EQS 22, CAS 10, 6.1% Trifecta Ratio (near-bottom). Bull case: (1) bitcoin rally + halving dynamics; (2) 14.7% short interest, 3.34 beta squeeze; (3) power/site assets have AI-hosting value. Bear case: (1) cash-burning, negative-return miner; (2) 13.5x sales; (3) dilution history. Verdict: composite short — lower Score than the strict names but the same burn-plus-hope profile; a bitcoin/AI-narrative fade.
BE — Bloom Energy (Industrials — Near Pass, OM2s 88.5). The story: solid-oxide fuel cells pitched as AI-datacenter on-site power. Why investors are excited: 91 FRM (strong forward growth) and the data-center-power thesis. Why the model hates it: ~0% ROIC, 89x EV/EBITDA, 18.9x sales, 96 Behavioral Dislocation, 4.60 beta, price 1.39x OM target. Bull case: (1) genuine data-center power demand (best FRM in the short book at 91); (2) 10.5% short interest + high beta squeeze; (3) energy-transition policy support. Bear case: (1) barely breakeven at 89x EBITDA; (2) capital-intensive with thin returns (CAS 38); (3) among the most stretched-vs-target names. Verdict: near-pass short — the only non-tech name with a real growth story, which makes it the riskiest short here; the 91 FRM is a genuine warning against pressing it.
WYFI — WhiteFiber (IT/AI-infra — Near Pass, OM2s 88.4). The story: an AI/HPC data-center and connectivity infrastructure name. Why investors are excited: AI-buildout exposure, small float. Why the model hates it: Score −96, −9.1% ROIC, −0.15 FCF/EV, EQS 21, CAS 9, 4.71 beta. Bull case: (1) AI-infra demand; (2) small-cap re-rate potential; (3) high beta squeeze fuel. Bear case: (1) cash-burning with weak returns; (2) 8.6x sales, 1.28x OM target; (3) 93 dislocation risk. Verdict: near-pass short — a small, unprofitable AI-infra name priced on narrative; low quality (33% Trifecta).
WULF — TeraWulf (IT/crypto-miner — Strict Pass, OM2s 87.6). The story: a bitcoin miner leaning into AI/HPC hosting with nuclear-adjacent power. Why investors are excited: the AI-hosting pivot and power-asset value. Why the model hates it: EQS 11 and CAS 8 (near-lowest in the book), −34.8% ROIC, −0.28 FCF/EV (heaviest burn), 25.6x sales, 21.9% short interest. Bull case: (1) AI-hosting contract catalysts; (2) 21.9% short interest — big squeeze risk; (3) low-cost power assets. Bear case: (1) worst earnings-quality/capital-allocation scores here; (2) deeply negative free cash flow; (3) 25x sales. Verdict: strict-pass short on fundamentals, but the 21.9% short interest makes it a squeeze magnet — a fundamentals-vs-positioning tug-of-war.
LSCC — Lattice Semiconductor (IT/FPGA — Near Pass, OM2s 87.4). The story: a low-power FPGA maker with a quality reputation and edge/AI exposure. Why investors are excited: high-margin franchise, design-win momentum, 88.5% Trifecta Ratio. Why the model hates it: valuation — 94 Multiple Compression, 63x EV/EBITDA, 23.4x sales on just 2.6% ROIC; Score −56. Bull case: (1) genuinely high-quality FPGA franchise; (2) edge-AI content growth; (3) low short interest (4%) — less squeeze risk to a short. Bear case: (1) 23x sales for modest current returns; (2) 1.15x OM target; (3) FRM only 40 — growth has cooled. Verdict: near-pass short — a good chip company the model fades purely on multiple; a mean-reversion short.
VPG — Vishay Precision Group (IT/sensors — Near Pass, OM2s 87.3). The story: precision measurement/sensor components. Why investors are excited: niche industrial-tech exposure. Why the model hates it: 97 Behavioral Dislocation (price far above targets — 1.32x SS), 38x EV/EBITDA on 1.6% ROIC, Score −51. Bull case: (1) diversified sensor end-markets; (2) reasonable 4.45x sales (cheapest of the shorts on that metric); (3) recovery optionality. Bear case: (1) price stretched 1.32x vs SS target; (2) low returns at a high EBITDA multiple; (3) weak momentum/quality. Verdict: near-pass short — more a "price ran ahead of a mediocre business" fade than a broken-model short.
HIMS — Hims & Hers Health (Health Care — Near Pass, OM2s 86.8). The story: the DTC telehealth/GLP-1 growth story. Why investors are excited: viral consumer growth and weight-loss/compounded-drug TAM. Why the model hates it: FRM just 19 (growth decelerating in the model), 28.3% short interest (highest in the book), −1.2% ROIC, 97 Behavioral Dislocation, price 1.35x SS. Bull case: (1) huge consumer brand + GLP-1 demand; (2) 28.3% short interest = extreme squeeze fuel; (3) subscription stickiness. Bear case: (1) regulatory risk to compounded-GLP-1 revenue; (2) decelerating forward growth (FRM 19); (3) stretched 1.35x vs target. Verdict: near-pass short with the single highest squeeze risk in the book — thesis is regulatory/valuation, but 28% short interest means never press it into strength.
AXTI — AXT, Inc. (IT/compound-semi materials — Strict Pass, OM2s 86.7). The story: a maker of compound-semiconductor substrates (GaAs/InP) tied to AI/photonics. Why investors are excited: AI-optical and datacenter-photonics substrate demand. Why the model hates it: Score −169, SMP −345, 22.4x sales, 122x EV/EBITDA, −3.9% ROIC, 11.9% short interest. Bull case: (1) photonics/optical-AI substrate tailwind; (2) squeeze potential (11.9% SI, 3.0 beta); (3) China-listing/subsidiary optionality. Bear case: (1) negative returns at 122x EBITDA; (2) 1.62x OM target; (3) weak capital allocation (CAS 14). Verdict: strict-pass short — an unprofitable materials name riding the photonics narrative well past its economics.
CRWD — CrowdStrike (IT/software — Strict Pass, OM2s 86.7). The story: the premier endpoint/cloud-security platform and a market darling. Why investors are excited: security-platform consolidation, strong retention, AI-security upside. Why the model hates it: 31x fwd EV/Sales, 102x EV/EBITDA, −0.6% ROIC, 97 Behavioral Dislocation, price 1.41x OM / 1.11x SS — priced for perfection. Bull case: (1) best-of-breed platform with an 84.2% Trifecta Ratio; (2) low 3% short interest and 1.49 beta (a "cleaner" short); (3) durable growth into the multiple. Bear case: (1) 31x sales is one of the richest valuations in the market; (2) negative current ROIC; (3) 89 compression risk. Verdict: strict-pass short — a top-tier company at a multiple the model won't defend; a valuation short best expressed vs a cheaper software long.
WOLF — Wolfspeed (IT/SiC — Near Pass, OM2s 86.6). The story: a silicon-carbide pure-play for EVs and power, post-severe-drawdown. Why investors are excited: SiC secular demand and a potential turnaround/restructuring bounce. Why the model hates it: 53.8% short interest (by far the highest), −10.7% ROIC, negative EBITDA, CAS 6, 96 Volatility/Squeeze. Bull case: (1) SiC demand recovery; (2) 53.8% short interest = enormous squeeze risk; (3) restructuring/refinancing catalysts. Bear case: (1) balance-sheet and dilution overhang; (2) negative returns and free cash flow; (3) 1.35x OM target. Verdict: near-pass short on fundamentals, but 53.8% short interest makes it the most dangerous squeeze in the entire book — the model's bearish, but this is not one to short naked.
MRAM — Everspin Technologies (IT/memory — Near Pass, OM2s 86.6). The story: a niche MRAM (persistent memory) maker. Why investors are excited: specialty-memory demand and defense/industrial niches. Why the model hates it: micro-cap (~$449M), ~0.4% ROIC, 22x EV/EBITDA, 93 Behavioral Dislocation, Score −66. Bull case: (1) defensible MRAM niche; (2) 9.6% short interest + 3.20 beta; (3) design-win optionality. Bear case: (1) negligible returns at a high multiple; (2) 1.15-1.17x targets; (3) thin liquidity cuts both ways. Verdict: near-pass short — a stretched micro-cap with barely-there profitability.
VRNS — Varonis Systems (IT/security software — Near Pass, OM2s 86.5). The story: a data-security software vendor mid-transition to SaaS. Why investors are excited: data-security TAM and SaaS-transition margin story. Why the model hates it: −12.4% ROIC, 156x EV/EBITDA, 96 Behavioral Dislocation, Score −78, price 1.19-1.21x targets. Bull case: (1) SaaS-transition inflection; (2) very low 0.86 beta (a low-volatility short); (3) data-security demand. Bear case: (1) negative ROIC through the transition; (2) 156x EBITDA; (3) stretched vs targets. Verdict: near-pass short — a transition story priced ahead of the payoff; low beta makes it a calmer short.
BFLY — Butterfly Network (Health Care — Near Pass, OM2s 86.3). The story: handheld point-of-care ultrasound with an AI-imaging angle. Why investors are excited: democratized-imaging vision and AI diagnostics. Why the model hates it: Score −146, −32.0% ROIC, negative EBITDA, 15.3x sales, 99 Behavioral Dislocation, price 1.49x OM / 1.27x SS. Bull case: (1) disruptive imaging TAM; (2) AI-software attach; (3) small-cap re-rate potential. Bear case: (1) deeply negative returns, cash burn; (2) among the most stretched vs targets (99 dislocation); (3) commercialization has repeatedly disappointed. Verdict: near-pass short — a story stock priced far above a loss-making reality.
CORZ — Core Scientific (IT/crypto-AI — Near Pass, OM2s 86.3). The story: a bitcoin miner turned AI/HPC hosting landlord (the CoreWeave-hosting narrative). Why investors are excited: long-term AI-hosting contracts and data-center asset value. Why the model hates it: −130.2% ROIC (near-worst), −0.06 FCF/EV, CAS 8, EQS 36, 23.5% short interest, 95 Volatility/Squeeze. Bull case: (1) contracted AI-hosting revenue visibility; (2) 23.5% short interest squeeze risk; (3) power/site asset value. Bear case: (1) catastrophic current returns on capital; (2) 10.9x sales; (3) execution/financing risk on the buildout. Verdict: near-pass short on fundamentals, tempered by heavy short interest — the AI-hosting story is holding up a very weak income statement.
AMBQ — Ambiq Micro (IT/ultra-low-power semis — Near Pass, OM2s 86.3). The story: ultra-low-power chips for edge-AI and wearables (recent IPO). Why investors are excited: edge-AI/tinyML exposure and IPO momentum. Why the model hates it: worst-ish Score (−214), −24.2% ROIC, negative EBITDA, 13.8x sales, price 1.93x OM target (2nd-furthest above target). Bull case: (1) edge-AI power-efficiency niche; (2) IPO/growth narrative; (3) small float re-rate potential. Bear case: (1) 1.93x OM target — extreme; (2) negative returns and cash flow; (3) CAS 6. Verdict: near-pass short — a freshly-public edge-AI story priced nearly 2x above the model's target.
CEVA — CEVA, Inc. (IT/semi-IP — Composite, OM2s 86.2). The story: a wireless/edge-AI IP-licensing house (DSP, connectivity). Why investors are excited: royalty exposure to edge-AI and IoT proliferation. Why the model hates it: Score −43 (mildest here), −3.7% ROIC, 41x EV/EBITDA, 92 Behavioral Dislocation, CAS 27. Bull case: (1) IP-royalty leverage to unit growth; (2) cheapest-Score short (least extreme); (3) edge-AI licensing tailwind. Bear case: (1) negative returns at 41x EBITDA; (2) 7.3x sales; (3) stretched vs targets. Verdict: composite short — the softest-conviction name in the book; a valuation/quality fade rather than a broken model.
QUIK — QuickLogic (IT/FPGA — Near Pass, OM2s 85.9). The story: a micro-cap embedded-FPGA and IP company with defense/eFPGA exposure. Why investors are excited: eFPGA design wins and defense-program optionality. Why the model hates it: micro-cap (~$292M, smallest here), −41.0% ROIC, 11.3x sales, Score −112, price 1.34x OM / 0.71x SS. Bull case: (1) eFPGA/defense contract catalysts; (2) tiny float can rip on news; (3) IP-licensing optionality. Bear case: (1) deeply negative returns on capital; (2) micro-cap execution/liquidity risk; (3) 85 compression risk. Verdict: near-pass short — a loss-making micro-cap priced on program hopes; the SS target below price (0.71x) is the one crumb of relative support.
Thank you for reading. Come back next week for a new round of the 1% Worst Stocks in the market.
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