The 2× ETF Illusion: Twice the Return Is Not What You Think
That Will Make You a Better Investor and Why to Follow The Oddsmaker
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
Volatility is not risk. Permanent loss of capital is.
Great companies can be terrible investments at the wrong price.
Buy probabilities, not predictions.
When everyone agrees, ask what is already priced in.
You don't need to trade every opportunity.
Revenue growth without returns on capital can destroy value.
The best investment thesis should survive a 30% stock decline.
Free cash flow eventually exposes accounting stories.
Debt looks harmless until the business disappoints.
The market can stay irrational longer than your leverage can survive.
Don't confuse a rising stock with a good business.
Buybacks create value only when shares are repurchased below intrinsic value.
Dilution is an expense, even when it doesn't appear on the income statement.
High short interest is information—not an investment thesis.
Momentum matters, but valuation determines how much you're risking.
The best investors change their minds when the facts change.
Your biggest edge is often knowing what you don't know.
Don't ask whether a stock will rise. Ask whether the odds justify the price.
You don't need to be right every time. You need the expected value to be positive.
I have a baby crush on Christina. It is based on her kindness, personality, brains, and ability to probably beat me up Bald Mountain. But I had a GREAT time and cant wait to hike with her again. She is super sweet, smart, and kind. How did i get so lucky. Next time I WON’T forget the cream cheese.
The Oddsmaker
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