The Oddsmaker Take
Where the best opportunities lie — Energy and the "old-economy cash machines." The long book's center of gravity is unmistakably Energy and value-cyclicals: five of the 25 longs are Energy names (LPG, RRC, IMPP, PARR, CNX), and the bucket screens at an extraordinary average forward EV/EBITDA of just 4.3x with RAVG 92 and FRM 89 — meaning the cheapest multiples in the market are simultaneously the ones with estimates being revised up fastest. That's not an accident: across the full 2,876-name universe, Energy carries the highest conviction of any cyclical sector — a median OM Score of 63.2 (vs. 34.8 for IT) with 91.6% of energy names posting a positive Score. The model is finding torque through two energy paths — natural-gas earnings inflections (RRC at +122% EBITDA, CNX at a staggering +1,010%) and shipping/refining cash gushers (LPG and IMPP throwing off 0.23x FCF/EV, ESEA at 0.29x). The same value logic pulls in Consumer Discretionary (5 longs: BWMX, AFYA, EXPE, GCT, LAUR) and Materials via CF, where the standout is Financials: it's the single strongest sector in the entire universe (median Score 75.9, 95.5% positive), and DLO carries that flag at the top of the book with a perfect 100th-percentile Holy Trinity and +56% forward revenue. The message for these sectors: the market is structurally under-pricing profitable, cash-returning, fundamentally-accelerating businesses — the model sees the best risk-adjusted return in unglamorous places where price hasn't yet caught up to earnings (the cohort's TRS averages just 46).
Where the worst opportunities lie — Information Technology, specifically AI/crypto infrastructure. The short book is a near-monolith: 24 of 25 shorts are Information Technology, which is no surprise given IT screens dead last among growth sectors in the full universe — a median OM Score of just 34.8 and the lowest share of positive-Score names at 67.5%.* But the model isn't shorting "tech" broadly — it's surgically targeting the most speculative corners: AI-infrastructure semis priced for perfection (ALAB at 99x EBITDA, NVTS at 106x sales on revenue falling 45%, AEHR at 663x EBITDA) and crypto miners wearing AI costumes (HUT, RIOT, CORZ, WULF, CLSK, CIFR, APLD), which collectively burn cash — the short cohort averages −40% ROIC, 24x sales, 239x EBITDA, trading at 141% of OM fair value. Critically, the model's own long book also holds seven IT names (ADSK, ADBE, INTU, NVDA, ZM, NTAP, ITRN) — but those are profitable, cash-generative compounders trading at 6–16x EBITDA, the polar opposite of the shorts. That split is the whole story for the sector: IT is the most bifurcated group in the market — the model is long the cheap, durable, cash-rich franchises and short the expensive, unprofitable, high-beta speculation, with the danger flagged in the data (short-cohort beta 3.06, short interest 11.7%, with CLSK at 33% and APLD at 27%). The takeaway for IT as a whole: this isn't a sector to own or avoid wholesale — it's one where dispersion has blown out so far that the same eleven letters of the alphabet contain both the safest longs and the most fragile shorts, and the recent AI/chip sell-off is the market beginning to price exactly that divergence.
The Oddsmaker Top 25 Best Stocks In Data
Want to see why? Click Below.
Rank | Ticker | June 26 Close | Price/SS Target | OM Score | Super Multiple Predictor | Trifecta Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | MU | $1,183.53 | 0.79x | 86.3 | -33.3 | 98.3% |
2 | BWMX | $17.70 | 0.63x | 134.2 | 25.7 | 98.1% |
3 | LPG | $36.44 | 0.71x | 108.8 | -12.4 | 92.0% |
4 | CF | $106.16 | 0.85x | 105.2 | -9.3 | 97.3% |
5 | AFYA | $14.92 | 0.90x | 140.0 | 23.9 | 89.3% |
6 | ADSK | $ 195.08 | 0.61x | 104.4 | -11.9 | 98.7% |
7 | FRO | $ 36.58 | 0.83x | 87.3 | -27.6 | 99.3% |
8 | RRC | $ 37.42 | 0.80x | 110.2 | -5.8 | 96.4% |
9 | DELL | $ 393.15 | 0.79x | 81.9 | -34.4 | 93.6% |
10 | GRND | $ 14.04 | 0.77x | 96.0 | -20.1 | 99.2% |
11 | GCT | $ 31.72 | 0.56x | 131.5 | 16.2 | 92.6% |
12 | ITRN | $ 61.03 | 0.83x | 88.5 | -26.7 | 97.2% |
13 | PARR | $ 53.90 | 0.70x | 89.8 | -28.5 | 84.7% |
14 | IMPP | $ 4.87 | 0.54x | 155.9 | 46.9 | 97.8% |
15 | ESEA | $ 67.61 | 0.75x | 104.9 | -19.8 | 76.8% |
16 | LAUR | $ 36.80 | 0.91x | 82.2 | -34.1 | 96.8% |
17 | CNX | $ 34.53 | 0.89x | 105.6 | -23.5 | 72.0% |
18 | JBL | $ 364.12 | 0.81x | 86.2 | -29.9 | 91.8% |
19 | ADBE | $ 200.03 | 0.71x | 114.1 | 0.9 | 98.4% |
20 | KYIV | $ 15.28 | 0.84x | 110.0 | -6.7 | 95.8% |
21 | NTAP | $ 151.06 | 0.86x | 71.1 | -47.8 | 96.1% |
22 | UBER | $ 74.11 | 0.69x | 88.8 | -28.1 | 95.3% |
23 | DAVE | $ 321.72 | 0.94x | 80.5 | -37.7 | 98.7% |
24 | KTB | $ 82.32 | 0.86x | 96.7 | -34.3 | 57.4% |
25 | ABX | $ 9.52 | 0.68x | 112.0 | -10.2 | 92.1% |
The Oddsmaker Top 25 Worst Stocks In Data
Want to see why? Click Below.
Rank | Ticker | June 26 Close | Price/SS Target | OM Score | Super Multiple Predictor | Trifecta Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | AEHR | $ 92.37 | 1.29x | -209.8 | -435.0 | 2.5% |
2 | ALAB | $ 383.59 | 1.46x | -126.7 | -309.6 | 99.1% |
3 | NBIS | $ 239.89 | 0.93x | -88.7 | -237.4 | 66.2% |
4 | HUT | $ 117.43 | 0.90x | -157.4 | -371.2 | 30.3% |
5 | RIOT | $ 28.15 | 0.97x | -80.5 | -259.2 | 6.0% |
6 | MRAM | $ 21.86 | 1.21x | -64.3 | -208.5 | 43.1% |
7 | NVTS | $ 17.12 | 1.18x | -250.3 | -390.3 | 32.3% |
8 | WYFI | $ 36.29 | 0.99x | -113.8 | -268.3 | 32.8% |
9 | AXTI | $ 68.38 | 0.71x | -172.1 | -359.2 | 38.7% |
10 | WULF | $ 25.27 | 0.70x | -104.6 | -301.3 | 25.2% |
11 | AIP | $ 42.62 | 1.12x | -156.9 | -320.0 | 71.0% |
12 | BE | $ 271.42 | 0.97x | -88.7 | -250.3 | 83.0% |
13 | CORZ | $ 26.65 | 0.81x | -154.3 | -300.5 | 79.8% |
14 | AAOI | $ 131.33 | 0.82x | -83.8 | -232.8 | 37.7% |
15 | MXL | $ 94.98 | 1.40x | -125.6 | -276.9 | 57.2% |
16 | VPG | $ 124.89 | 1.27x | -29.5 | -165.7 | 58.7% |
17 | VECO | $ 70.11 | 1.16x | -34.5 | -169.2 | 64.4% |
18 | LSCC | $ 138.38 | 0.94x | -57.0 | -222.2 | 88.4% |
19 | APLD | $ 40.07 | 0.51x | -26.8 | -208.6 | 36.7% |
20 | QUIK | $ 17.89 | 0.76x | -146.8 | -296.4 | 66.7% |
21 | CLSK | $ 15.90 | 0.74x | -42.4 | -211.3 | 0.7% |
22 | VSH | $ 55.16 | 1.62x | -75.7 | -212.0 | 41.8% |
23 | DDOG | $ 231.22 | 0.93x | -43.5 | -192.0 | 88.9% |
24 | UCTT | $ 114.99 | 1.07x | -50.2 | -188.8 | 34.3% |
25 | INTC | $ 129.65 | 1.35x | -76.6 | -236.2 | 26.3% |
Thank you for reading. Come back next week for a new report on the market.
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