Welcome to this week’s Oddsmaker Top 25 Best and Worst. First, a brief update on the recently weekly performance of the Oddsmaker Top 25 Best and Worst Picks:
Average weekly long/short spread of +10.0%, positive in 10 of 14 weeks. Across the 14 scored weeks the average is +10.8%. Of those, 10 were positive, one was flat (7-20 at 0.0%) and two were negative (8-31 at −4%, 9-7 at −6%).
The long book was up in 11 of 13 scored weeks, in a range of −2% to +11%. It was flat on 8-31 and down 2% on 9-7.
Longs outperformed SPY in 11 of 13 scored weeks, averaging +3.4% excess, and trailed on 8-31 (−1%) and 9-7 (−3%). The stated long hit rate is 54%.
Widest spread: 6-15 at +28% (longs +5%, shorts −24%), followed by 6-22 at +27% and 6-8 at +25%.
The short book's contribution is concentrated in June. Shorts returned −24%, −23% and −14% in the 6-15, 6-22 and 6-8 weeks. They were positive in four weeks, including both of the two most recent scored weeks: 7-20 (+8%), 7-27 (+3%), 8-31 (+4%) and 9-7 (+4%).
Top 25 Best Stocks In The Market Now
MU, Micron Technology, OM Score 102.8, SMP 203.9, OM2 89.6, Near Pass, 5/5 signature. FRM 98.6, TRS 95.4, CAS 88.0, RAVG 86.8, EQS 85.3, Trifecta Ratio 0.981, ROIC 57.3%, fwd EV/EBITDA 5.4x, fwd FCF/EV 10.3%, forward revenue growth 167%, 0.84x OM target and 0.67x sell-side target. Micron makes DRAM, NAND and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the memory stacked next to AI accelerators. The market sees it as the purest large-cap way to own the AI memory upcycle, but still prices it like a cyclical at peak margins. The bull case is that HBM supply constraints keep pricing firm longer than past cycles, and a 5.4x forward multiple doesn't reflect that. The bear case is that memory has always mean-reverted, and capacity additions across the industry eventually crush pricing. Biggest upside factor: FRM at 98.6, the strongest revenue and margin momentum in the book. Risks: a memory pricing rollover, AI capex digestion by hyperscalers, and implied-margin data flagged above 70%.
SLDE, Slide Insurance Holdings, OM Score 119.0, SMP 250.6, OM2 87.4, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. EQS 98.0, TRS 92.9, CAS 88.1, OLI 78.4, Trifecta Ratio 0.997, ROIC 51.8%, net cash 41.1% of market cap, fwd EV/EBITDA 2.3x, trailing FCF margin 65.9%, 0.82x OM target. Slide is a Florida-focused homeowners and condo insurer that grew rapidly by assuming policies from the state insurer of last resort and underwriting with its own technology. The market treats it as a newly public, catastrophe-exposed carrier and values it at a steep discount. The bull case is that Florida's tort reforms structurally improved underwriting economics, and Slide is compounding at 50%+ ROIC. The bear case is that one major hurricane resets the thesis overnight. Biggest upside factor: EQS at 98.0, the highest earnings quality in the book. Risks: hurricane losses, reinsurance cost increases, and no analyst revision data, with the EBITDA multiple falling back to trailing figures (TTM flag).
IMPP, Imperial Petroleum, OM Score 146.3, SMP 244.6, OM2 87.4, the only Strict Pass in the long universe, 3/5 signature. RAVG 99.4, CAS 95.4, TRS 87.7, Trifecta Ratio 0.730, ROIC 16.8%, net cash 95.7% of market cap, fwd EV/EBITDA 0.07x, forward revenue growth 89%, 0.79x OM target and 0.64x sell-side target. Imperial Petroleum owns and charters product tankers and dry bulk vessels out of Greece. The market treats it as a governance-discounted micro-cap with a controlling shareholder and a history of dilutive equity raises. The bull case is that net cash covers nearly the entire $256M market cap while the fleet earns a 17% return, so the operating business is effectively free. The bear case is that the discount has persisted for years, and cash may go to fleet expansion or insiders rather than shareholders. Biggest upside factor: RAVG at 99.4, the top revision read in the book. Risks: dilution, related-party transactions, and weakness in tanker rates.
SM, SM Energy, OM Score 101.5, SMP 219.8, OM2 83.5, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. RAVG 94.7, FRM 92.4, TRS 83.1, OLI 79.8, EQS 61.1, Trifecta Ratio 0.985, fwd EV/EBITDA 3.0x, fwd FCF/EV 12.3%, forward revenue growth 65%, trailing FCF margin 29.7%, 0.84x OM target. SM is an oil-weighted exploration and production company (E&P) with core acreage in the Permian's Midland Basin, plus Uinta and South Texas positions. The market views it as a levered, mid-cap oil beta name trading at a discount to larger Permian peers. The bull case is a 12% free-cash-flow yield with estimates rising sharply, which funds deleveraging and buybacks. The bear case is that net debt equals 77.5% of market cap, so oil price declines hit the equity disproportionately. Biggest upside factor: RAVG at 94.7, with analysts revising estimates upward aggressively. Risks: crude price downside, leverage (CAS only 41.9), and execution on integrating newer acreage.
STNG, Scorpio Tankers, OM Score 103.3, SMP 206.5, OM2 83.4, Near Pass, 5/5 signature. CAS 92.9, FRM 86.9, TRS 84.2, RAVG 80.8, EQS 79.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.984, ROIC 17.6%, net cash 28.0% of market cap, fwd EV/EBITDA 5.9x, fwd FCF/EV 9.1%, forward revenue growth 32.7%. Scorpio operates one of the largest fleets of product tankers, carrying refined fuels such as diesel and jet fuel. The market sees it as a high-quality operator in a volatile, rate-driven business, and it tends to discount peak rates. The bull case is that Scorpio has already moved from net debt to net cash, so strong refined-product tanker rates now flow straight to buybacks and dividends. The bear case is that product tanker rates are cyclical, and newbuild deliveries could soften them into 2027. Biggest upside factor: CAS at 92.9, reflecting the balance-sheet turnaround. Risks: falling tanker rates, fleet oversupply, and geopolitical route normalization shortening voyage distances.
EVER, EverQuote, OM Score 107.5, SMP 207.2, OM2 83.0, Near Pass, 5/5 signature. CAS 96.8, EQS 84.7, RAVG 84.9, TRS 79.9, FRM 78.3, Trifecta Ratio 0.945, ROIC 53.0%, net cash 23.3% of market cap, fwd EV/EBITDA 5.0x, fwd EV/Sales 0.74x, fwd FCF/EV 15.5%. EverQuote runs an online insurance marketplace that sells consumer auto and home insurance leads to carriers and agents. The market treats it as a cyclical lead-gen business tied to carrier ad budgets, which are volatile. The bull case is that carriers are profitable again and spending on customer acquisition, while EverQuote converts that spend into a 15% free-cash-flow yield on a net-cash balance sheet. The bear case is that carrier budgets can be cut abruptly, as they were in 2023. Biggest upside factor: CAS at 96.8, the highest capital-allocation score in the book. Risks: concentrated carrier spending, short interest of 19.2%, and competition from Google and comparison sites.
HCI, HCI Group, OM Score 127.8, SMP 240.4, OM2 82.6, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. EQS 95.2, CAS 86.5, TRS 78.9, Trifecta Ratio 0.974, ROIC 27.7%, net cash 34.5% of market cap, fwd EV/EBITDA 3.5x, trailing FCF margin 44.4%, 0.81x OM target and 0.77x sell-side target. HCI is a Florida homeowners insurer with a technology arm that builds underwriting and claims software. The market views it as a well-run but catastrophe-exposed insurer, and it applies a conglomerate discount to the tech segment. The bull case is that post-reform Florida underwriting is highly profitable and the tech unit could be valued separately. The bear case is the same as for every Florida carrier: one landfall event can erase a year of earnings. Biggest upside factor: EQS at 95.2, with a clear Score gate pass at 127.8. Risks: hurricane losses, reinsurance renewal costs, and TTM-fallback data plus missing revision data.
EOG, EOG Resources, OM Score 102.7, SMP 207.9, OM2 81.7, Near Pass, 5/5 signature. RAVG 92.5, FRM 76.9, EQS 76.4, CAS 74.8, Trifecta Ratio 0.975, ROIC 12.7%, near-zero net debt, fwd EV/EBITDA 4.8x, fwd FCF/EV 9.7%, trailing FCF margin 16.8%, 0.84x OM target. EOG is one of the largest US independent E&Ps, with premium acreage in the Delaware Basin and Eagle Ford and growing gas exposure in the Dorado and Utica plays. The market regards it as a best-in-class operator and a low-drama way to own oil. The bull case is that a fortress balance sheet and 10% free-cash-flow yield support returns through the cycle, and estimates are rising. The bear case is that it's a large-cap commodity producer with limited growth, and the stock follows crude. Biggest upside factor: RAVG at 92.5. Risks: oil price declines, weaker gas realizations, and middling price momentum (TRS 55.0).
MGY, Magnolia Oil & Gas, OM Score 116.0, SMP 231.7, OM2 80.6, Near Pass, 5/5 signature. RAVG 93.6, EQS 80.1, CAS 77.3, OLI 72.4, Trifecta Ratio 0.985, ROIC 12.4%, fwd EV/EBITDA 3.2x, fwd FCF/EV 16.0%, trailing FCF margin 22.5%, 0.82x OM target and 0.74x sell-side target. Magnolia is an Eagle Ford and Giddings-focused E&P known for low reinvestment rates, little debt and steady buybacks. The market sees it as a disciplined, shareholder-return story but has sold it off with crude. The bull case is a 16% free-cash-flow yield at 3.2x EBITDA, which shrinks the share count every year. The bear case is that Giddings well results have been mixed, and the growth runway is limited. Biggest upside factor: fwd FCF/EV at 16.0%, the highest free-cash-flow yield among the book's energy names. Risks: oil price downside, weak price momentum (TRS 20.9), and implied-margin data flagged above 70%.
AII, American Integrity Insurance Group, OM Score 122.7, SMP 254.6, OM2 79.7, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. TRS 94.4, EQS 93.7, CAS 86.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.996, ROIC 19.3%, net cash 49.3% of market cap, fwd EV/EBITDA 2.2x, fwd EV/Sales 0.55x, trailing FCF margin 82.4%. American Integrity is a Florida homeowners insurer that went public in 2025 and grows partly by taking policies out of the state-run Citizens insurer. The market treats it as a small, under-followed IPO in a sector investors distrust. The bull case is that half the market cap is net cash, the stock trades at 2.2x EBITDA, and momentum is top-decile. The bear case is that a $518M single-state carrier has limited ability to absorb a major storm. Biggest upside factor: the highest SMP in the book at 254.6. Risks: catastrophe exposure, thin liquidity and institutional ownership (OLI 9.9), and TTM-fallback data with no revision data.
MNTN, MNTN Inc., OM Score 103.4, SMP 201.9, OM2 79.6, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. CAS 95.3, FRM 85.7, EQS 84.5, TRS 81.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.951, ROIC 19.7%, net cash 28.1% of market cap, fwd EV/EBITDA 5.2x, fwd FCF/EV 17.1%, forward EBITDA growth 449%, 0.62x sell-side target. MNTN runs a self-serve connected-TV (CTV) advertising platform that lets small and mid-sized businesses buy streaming ads measured on performance, much like search ads. The market sees it as a 2025 IPO with real growth but a crowded ad-tech field. The bull case is that CTV budgets keep shifting from linear TV, EBITDA is inflecting, and the stock trades at 5x forward EBITDA with a 17% free-cash-flow yield. The bear case is that competitors like The Trade Desk and Amazon could compress take rates. Biggest upside factor: fwd FCF/EV at 17.1%, the highest in the book. Risks: SMB ad-budget cyclicality, competition, and no revision data.
VFF, Village Farms International, OM Score 128.3, SMP 189.6, OM2 78.2, Near Pass on Score alone, 2/5 signature. TRS 81.9, CAS 77.0, FRM 70.3, OLI 63.4, Trifecta Ratio 0.595, ROIC 6.5%, fwd EV/EBITDA 5.7x, forward EBITDA growth 290%, 0.81x OM target and 0.49x sell-side target. Village Farms operates large greenhouses producing cannabis for the Canadian and European medical markets, plus produce and a legacy tomato business. The market treats it as a penny-priced cannabis stock with a history of losses. The bull case is that Canadian cannabis margins have turned, European export licenses scale, and US rescheduling is an option on top, all at roughly half the sell-side target. The bear case is that cannabis pricing is brutal and profitability is recent. Biggest upside factor: the 0.49x price-to-sell-side-target discount. Risks: cannabis price deflation, regulatory delays, and a weak signature, including a 0.595 Trifecta Ratio and 47.7 EQS.
DLO, DLocal, OM Score 97.6, SMP 202.2, OM2 78.1, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. CAS 92.0, FRM 87.7, EQS 80.7, TRS 69.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.996, ROIC 26.3%, net cash 19.3% of market cap, fwd EV/EBITDA 8.2x, forward revenue growth 57%, trailing FCF margin 30.0%. DLocal processes cross-border payments into emerging markets, letting global merchants like Amazon and Microsoft collect local payment methods across Latin America, Africa and Asia. The market remembers the 2022 short report and ongoing take-rate compression, so it gives the stock a skeptical multiple. The bull case is that payment volume growth outruns the take-rate decline, the business is net cash and highly profitable, and the stock trades at 8x EBITDA. The bear case is that merchant concentration and pricing pressure keep margins declining. Biggest upside factor: Trifecta Ratio at 0.996. Risks: emerging-market currency shocks, take-rate compression, and no revision data.
YOU, Clear Secure, OM Score 121.0, SMP 226.6, OM2 77.7, Near Pass, 5/5 signature. CAS 93.3, RAVG 87.3, EQS 84.5, FRM 84.1, Trifecta Ratio 0.995, ROIC 31.4%, net cash 21.7% of market cap, fwd EV/EBITDA 7.5x, fwd FCF/EV 14.9%, trailing FCF margin 41.8%, 0.61x sell-side target. Clear runs biometric identity verification, best known for airport security lanes and now expanding into healthcare, hiring and TSA PreCheck enrollment. The market worries about airport contract renewals and regulatory pressure, which is why the stock trades at 0.61x the sell-side target. The bull case is 42% FCF margins, net cash and rising estimates, with a platform that could grow well beyond airports. The bear case is that TSA or airport policy changes could impair the core business. Biggest upside factor: CAS at 93.3. Risks: airport and regulatory contract risk, broken price momentum (TRS 4.5, the lowest in the book), and short interest of 12.4%.
KYIV, Kyivstar Group, OM Score 105.0, SMP 201.5, OM2 77.6, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. FRM 85.7, CAS 74.0, EQS 73.3, OLI 55.9, Trifecta Ratio 0.920, ROIC 9.0%, fwd EV/EBITDA 4.1x, fwd FCF/EV 10.5%, forward EBITDA growth 165%, 0.84x OM target. Kyivstar is Ukraine's largest mobile operator, majority-owned by VEON, and listed in the US in 2025. The market applies a heavy war discount and treats it as a geopolitical option. The bull case is that the business is profitable and growing through the war, trades at 4x EBITDA, and any ceasefire or reconstruction scenario re-rates it sharply. The bear case is that infrastructure damage, capital controls and sovereign risk make the cash flows hard to extract. Biggest upside factor: FRM at 85.7. Risks: war escalation, currency and repatriation controls, and a sell-side target ratio of 0.016, which looks like a currency artifact and should not be used.
CHRD, Chord Energy, OM Score 114.7, SMP 217.3, OM2 77.2, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. RAVG 93.9, FRM 70.8, TRS 61.4, CAS 58.4, EQS 56.3, Trifecta Ratio 0.924, ROIC 5.8%, fwd EV/EBITDA 3.1x, fwd FCF/EV 15.3%, trailing FCF margin 16.1%, 0.83x OM target. Chord is the largest Williston Basin oil producer, formed from the Oasis and Whiting merger and later expanded through the Enerplus acquisition. The market sees it as a mature basin with limited inventory depth and prices it accordingly. The bull case is a 15% free-cash-flow yield at 3x EBITDA, with most cash returned to shareholders and estimates rising. The bear case is that Bakken inventory depletes faster than Permian inventory, so the cash flow is shrinking over time. Biggest upside factor: RAVG at 93.9. Risks: oil price declines, inventory depth, and low ROIC at 5.8%.
AUGO, Aura Minerals, OM Score 100.7, SMP 218.2, OM2 76.0, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. FRM 95.5, EQS 86.5, TRS 85.7, CAS 77.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.999, the highest in the book, ROIC 14.4%, fwd EV/EBITDA 5.0x, forward revenue growth 89%, trailing FCF margin 31.3%. Aura is a mid-tier gold and copper producer with mines in Brazil, Mexico and Central America, now listed in the US. The market views it as a lesser-known gold producer levered to the bullion rally. The bull case is that record gold prices plus production growth drive near-90% revenue growth, while the stock trades at 5x EBITDA. The bear case is that it's a leveraged bet on gold with jurisdictional risk. Biggest upside factor: FRM at 95.5. Risks: a gold price reversal, operating risk in Latin America, and RAVG at 3.8, meaning analysts are revising estimates down despite the rally.
CMCL, Caledonia Mining, OM Score 136.2, SMP 247.2, OM2 75.9, Near Pass (clears Score ≥125), 4/5 signature. CAS 85.1, EQS 74.8, TRS 72.4, OLI 64.3, Trifecta Ratio 0.960, ROIC 11.7%, net cash 11.8% of market cap, fwd EV/EBITDA 2.8x, 0.80x OM target and 0.54x sell-side target. Caledonia operates the Blanket gold mine in Zimbabwe and is developing the larger Bilboes project. The market applies a steep Zimbabwe discount, which is why it trades under 3x EBITDA. The bull case is a Score gate pass, a mine throwing off cash at record gold prices, and a 46% discount to the sell-side target. The bear case is that Bilboes capex drives forward FCF/EV negative (-20.4%) and Zimbabwe's policy risk is real. Biggest upside factor: OM Score at 136.2, second highest in the book. Risks: Zimbabwe currency and royalty policy, Bilboes execution, and RAVG at 1.9, the weakest revision read in the book.
PGY, Pagaya Technologies, OM Score 94.7, SMP 200.7, OM2 75.5, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. TRS 93.0, CAS 85.5, EQS 69.6, FRM 64.8, Trifecta Ratio 0.931, ROIC 8.8%, net cash 22.4% of market cap, fwd EV/EBITDA 2.7x, forward EBITDA growth 125%, beta 3.32. Pagaya uses AI underwriting to approve consumer loans that partner banks and lenders decline, then funds them through asset-backed securities (ABS). The market sees it as a volatile fintech that finally turned profitable but is still tied to credit-market appetite. The bull case is that GAAP profitability has arrived, EBITDA is doubling, and the stock trades under 3x forward EBITDA with top-decile momentum. The bear case is that a credit cycle or ABS market freeze would hit volumes and fair-value marks at the same time. Biggest upside factor: TRS at 93.0. Risks: consumer credit deterioration, ABS funding risk, and short interest of 12.5% on a very high-beta stock.
DEC, Diversified Energy, OM Score 131.4, SMP 203.8, OM2 75.4, Near Pass, 2/5 signature. RAVG 94.1, FRM 91.7, OLI 62.3, EQS 44.6, CAS 37.9, Trifecta Ratio 0.667, ROIC 9.8%, fwd EV/EBITDA 4.1x, fwd FCF/EV 9.8%, forward revenue growth 60.5%, 0.64x sell-side target. Diversified buys mature, low-decline natural gas and oil wells, mainly in Appalachia and increasingly in the Southwest, and runs them for cash. The market is skeptical of its leverage and long-dated well-plugging liabilities. The bull case is a Score gate pass, sharply rising estimates after recent acquisitions, and a 36% discount to the sell-side target. The bear case is that net debt is roughly 3x the market cap, so the equity is a thin slice of the capital structure. Biggest upside factor: RAVG at 94.1. Risks: leverage, retirement-obligation liabilities, and weak earnings quality with negative trailing FCF margin.
GPOR, Gulfport Energy, OM Score 125.0, SMP 212.1, OM2 73.9, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. FRM 83.3, EQS 71.9, OLI 66.3, CAS 62.3, Trifecta Ratio 0.824, ROIC 18.9%, fwd EV/EBITDA 3.8x, fwd FCF/EV 13.8%, forward EBITDA growth 56%, 0.70x sell-side target. Gulfport is a natural gas-weighted E&P in the Utica and SCOOP plays that emerged from bankruptcy in 2021 with a clean slate. The market sees it as a small-cap gas producer that has been aggressively shrinking its share count. The bull case is that LNG export demand and data-center power needs lift gas prices, and Gulfport's buybacks compound per-share cash flow at a 14% free-cash-flow yield. The bear case is that gas is the most volatile commodity in energy, and a warm winter hits realizations. Biggest upside factor: OM Score right at the 125 gate. Risks: gas price weakness, weak momentum (TRS 20.2), and middling revisions (RAVG 40.1).
NEXA, Nexa Resources, OM Score 95.9, SMP 205.5, OM2 73.7, Near Pass, 3/5 signature. RAVG 92.1, FRM 78.8, EQS 59.0, Trifecta Ratio 0.957, ROIC 6.7%, fwd EV/EBITDA 3.1x, fwd EV/Sales 0.99x, fwd FCF/EV 11.0%, forward revenue growth 24.3%, beta 3.05. Nexa is one of the largest zinc producers in the world, with mines in Peru and Brazil and smelters in both countries, and is majority-owned by Votorantim. The market prices it as a levered, controlled, single-commodity miner. The bull case is that zinc and silver by-product prices lift a heavily indebted business whose equity is small relative to EV, and estimates are rising fast. The bear case is that net debt of 87% of market cap and a controlling shareholder limit minority returns. Biggest upside factor: RAVG at 92.1. Risks: zinc price volatility, leverage (CAS 39.8), and political and permitting risk in Peru.
FIS, Fidelity National Information Services, OM Score 112.9, SMP 212.4, OM2 72.6, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. RAVG 75.8, OLI 74.7, FRM 73.8, EQS 60.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.979, ROIC 7.8%, fwd EV/EBITDA 6.6x, fwd FCF/EV 7.1%, trailing FCF margin 21.7%, 0.71x sell-side target. FIS provides core banking software, payments processing and capital markets technology to banks, and has restructured by exiting Worldpay and buying Global Payments' issuer business. The market views it as a turnaround that has repeatedly disappointed, and the stock sits near multi-year lows. The bull case is a $35 stock at 6.6x EBITDA with sticky bank clients, rising estimates and a 29% discount to the sell-side target. The bear case is that integration of the issuer business adds execution risk, and leverage is high. Biggest upside factor: RAVG at 75.8. Risks: deal integration, net debt at 1.1x market cap, and broken momentum (TRS 11.2).
REPX, Riley Exploration Permian, OM Score 88.5, SMP 207.0, OM2 71.7, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. TRS 86.8, FRM 78.9, EQS 67.4, CAS 56.9, Trifecta Ratio 0.987, ROIC 9.7%, fwd EV/EBITDA 3.3x, fwd FCF/EV 9.6%, trailing FCF margin 28.0%, 0.86x OM target. Riley is a small-cap, oil-weighted E&P focused on the Northwest Shelf of the Permian in New Mexico and Texas, with a newer power-generation initiative. The market treats it as an under-followed micro-cap E&P with a high dividend. The bull case is that it's a cash-generative, dividend-paying operator at 3x EBITDA with top-quintile price momentum. The bear case is that scale is small, the inventory is concentrated, and it carries the lowest OM Score in the book at 88.5. Biggest upside factor: TRS at 86.8. Risks: oil price declines, liquidity (OLI 22.9), and no revision data.
EXE, Expand Energy, OM Score 121.6, SMP 213.3, OM2 70.9, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. FRM 90.1, OLI 68.6, EQS 65.5, CAS 63.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.886, ROIC 8.7%, fwd EV/EBITDA 4.2x, fwd FCF/EV 12.4%, forward revenue growth 42.8%, 0.68x sell-side target. Expand is the largest US natural gas producer, formed from the Chesapeake and Southwestern merger, with Haynesville and Appalachian scale positioned near LNG export capacity. The market views it as the bellwether large-cap gas name. The bull case is that LNG export growth and power demand tighten gas markets, and Expand has the scale and the balance sheet to capture it at a 12% free-cash-flow yield. The bear case is that gas prices are volatile and supply responds quickly to price. Biggest upside factor: FRM at 90.1. Risks: gas price weakness, RAVG at 3.6 as analysts cut estimates, and weak momentum (TRS 23.2).
Top 25 Worst Stocks In The Market Now
SPCE, Virgin Galactic, OM Score −144.1, SMP −216.4, OM2 95.4 (#1 short), Near Pass, 5/5 signature. VSR 98.5, MCR 92.1, BDR 89.0, EQS 1.9, FRM 0.7, Trifecta Ratio 0.001, ROIC −35.2%, fwd FCF/EV −51.4%, fwd EV/Sales 8.1x, forward revenue growth −38.9%, 1.36x OM target, short interest 23.8%, beta 3.76. Virgin Galactic flies suborbital space-tourism missions and has paused commercial flights while it builds its next-generation Delta-class ships. The market treats it as a cash-burning option on a 2026–27 relaunch. The bear case is that the company burns cash equal to roughly half its EV every year with shrinking revenue, so more dilution is nearly certain. The bull case is that a successful Delta test flight re-rates the stock on a restarted revenue ramp. Biggest downside factor: fwd FCF/EV at −51.4%. Risks: a Delta flight-test milestone squeezing 23.8% short interest, a very high beta, and a low share price that attracts retail momentum.
AI, C3.ai, OM Score −162.8, SMP −221.4, OM2 93.9, Near Pass, 3/5 signature. VSR 94.6, BDR 91.6, MCR 85.3, FRM 1.7, EQS 30.8, Trifecta Ratio 0.158, ROIC −55.3%, fwd FCF/EV −12.0%, forward revenue growth −37.5%, 1.43x OM target and 1.20x sell-side target, short interest 29.0%. C3.ai sells enterprise AI application software to industrial, energy and government customers. The market sees it as an early AI name that lost momentum through leadership changes and repeated guidance cuts. The bear case is a shrinking top line in the middle of an AI spending boom, with the stock still above both the OM and sell-side targets. The bull case is that net cash of 35.1% of market cap makes it a plausible takeover target. Biggest downside factor: trading at 1.20x the sell-side target, so even analysts see it as expensive. Risks: M&A speculation, 29.0% short interest crowding the trade, and a cash cushion that limits the downside.
SDGR, Schrödinger, OM Score −218.4, SMP −287.4, OM2 93.7, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. BDR 99.8, the highest in the book, VSR 91.3, MCR 78.2, EQS 12.6, Trifecta Ratio 0.031, ROIC −12.2%, fwd EV/Sales 7.9x, fwd FCF/EV −7.9%, forward revenue growth 8.9%, 1.67x OM target and 1.35x sell-side target, stock price change +52.6%. Schrödinger licenses physics-based computational drug-discovery software and runs its own clinical pipeline. The market has re-rated it sharply on AI-drug-discovery enthusiasm. The bear case is that a 53% rally has left the stock 35% above the sell-side target on single-digit software growth and ongoing losses. The bull case is that a pipeline readout or partnership validates the platform and justifies the premium. Biggest downside factor: BDR at 99.8, the most behaviorally stretched name in the book. Risks: binary clinical or partnership catalysts, strong momentum, and net cash at 14.1% of market cap.
COIN, Coinbase Global, OM Score −58.0, SMP −126.3, OM2 93.4, Near Pass, 3/5 signature. BDR 96.5, MCR 92.6, VSR 89.0, EQS 55.4, Trifecta Ratio 0.344, ROIC −5.4%, fwd EV/EBITDA 29.1x, fwd EV/Sales 8.7x, fwd FCF/EV 2.1%, forward revenue growth −9.2%, 1.12x OM target and 1.01x sell-side target, stock price change +16.5%, beta 2.39. Coinbase is the largest US crypto exchange and custodian, and it also earns stablecoin (USDC) interest and staking revenue. The market treats it as the regulated, blue-chip proxy for crypto adoption. The bear case is that revenue is shrinking at 29x forward EBITDA, and trading volume collapses whenever crypto prices cool. The bull case is that friendlier US crypto regulation and stablecoin growth diversify earnings away from trading fees. Biggest downside factor: MCR at 92.6 on declining revenue. Risks: a bitcoin rally, a $51B market cap with strong institutional support, and positive regulatory headlines.
SMR, NuScale Power, OM Score −173.2, SMP −309.1, OM2 93.0, Strict Pass, 4/5 signature. MCR 99.2, VSR 96.5, EQS 3.3, FRM 0.3, Trifecta Ratio 0.002, ROIC −33.0%, fwd EV/Sales 40.0x, fwd FCF/EV −13.5%, forward revenue growth −81.0%, 1.47x OM target, short interest 15.8%, beta 3.99. NuScale designs small modular reactors and holds the first NRC-approved SMR design, but it has no operating plants. The market prices it as a leading nuclear-renaissance ticker tied to data-center power demand. The bear case is 40x forward sales on revenue that is falling 81%, with commercial deployment years away and dilution likely. The bull case is that a firm utility or hyperscaler order turns the design approval into a real backlog. Biggest downside factor: MCR at 99.2. Risks: nuclear policy tailwinds and order announcements, beta near 4, and net cash at 31.4% of market cap funding the runway.
ASST, Strive, OM Score −141.0, SMP −281.0, OM2 92.6, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. VSR 97.9, BDR 94.4, MCR 72.7, EQS 29.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.255, ROIC −141.5%, the worst in the book, fwd EV/Sales 280.5x, 1.35x OM target, short interest 23.1%, beta 3.40. Strive is a bitcoin treasury company built from Strive's asset manager, which merged into a public shell and then acquired Semler Scientific, which is why it's classified as Health Care. The market values it on bitcoin held per share and its ability to keep issuing equity. The bear case is that the operating business barely exists at 280x sales, and the premium to bitcoin holdings depends on continued dilution. The bull case is that a bitcoin rally plus accretive capital raises compound bitcoin per share. Biggest downside factor: ROIC at −141.5%. Risks: bitcoin price upside, 23.1% short interest, and retail and meme ownership.
PI, Impinj, OM Score −38.4, SMP −204.3, OM2 92.0, Composite tier (enters on eligibility), 2/5 signature. MCR 91.6, BDR 90.6, VSR 88.1, EQS 55.8, Trifecta Ratio 0.549, ROIC −5.5%, fwd EV/EBITDA 57.8x, fwd EV/Sales 13.2x, fwd FCF/EV 0.2%, forward revenue growth 3.5%, 1.08x OM target and 1.00x sell-side target, beta 2.99. Impinj makes RAIN RFID chips and readers used to tag and track retail apparel, logistics and supply-chain items. The market treats it as a secular IoT winner priced for sustained high growth. The bear case is that 58x forward EBITDA on 3.5% revenue growth leaves no room for inventory corrections at retail customers. The bull case is that new endpoint chips and adoption in food and logistics restart growth. Biggest downside factor: MCR at 91.6. Risks: only a Composite tier with the weakest OM Score in the book (−38.4), a positive earnings quality read, and a stock already at the sell-side target.
NVTS, Navitas Semiconductor, OM Score −222.4, SMP −351.2, OM2 92.0, Strict Pass, 3/5 signature. MCR 99.0, VSR 96.6, FRM 1.2, EQS 34.6, Trifecta Ratio 0.146, ROIC −52.1%, fwd EV/Sales 39.5x, forward revenue growth −46.4%, 1.69x OM target, short interest 15.3%, beta 4.63. Navitas makes gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC) power chips and is positioned for 800V data-center power architectures. The market prices it on AI power partnerships rather than current results. The bear case is nearly 40x forward sales on revenue that is falling 46%, with the lowest OM Score in the book outside MAC. The bull case is that GaN design wins in AI server power scale into real volume by 2027. Biggest downside factor: MCR at 99.0. Risks: partnership headlines triggering squeezes, beta of 4.63, and net cash at 18.5% of market cap.
FCEL, FuelCell Energy, OM Score −123.8, SMP −186.6, OM2 91.6, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. VSR 93.1, BDR 90.2, MCR 78.9, EQS 8.8, Trifecta Ratio 0.026, ROIC −18.1%, fwd EV/Sales 4.6x, fwd FCF/EV −12.8%, forward revenue growth 1.1%, 1.30x OM target, short interest 25.1%, stock price change +11.8%. FuelCell builds carbonate fuel cell power plants and sells distributed generation and hydrogen solutions. The market treats it as a perennial clean-energy money-loser that trades on data-center power headlines. The bear case is decades of losses, flat revenue and a steady cycle of dilution. The bull case is that data centers adopt on-site fuel cells for fast power access. Biggest downside factor: EQS at 8.8. Risks: 25.1% short interest, net cash at 34.0% of market cap, and power-demand hype cycles.
OKLO, Oklo, OM Score −97.1, SMP −237.1, OM2 91.5, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. VSR 96.8, MCR 94.8, EQS 8.8, Trifecta Ratio 0.030, ROIC −7.7%, fwd EV/Sales 914x, pre-revenue, fwd FCF/EV −11.8%, 1.22x OM target and 0.50x sell-side target, short interest 17.3%, beta 3.65. Oklo is developing Aurora fast-fission microreactors to sell power directly to data centers and industrial customers. The market values it as a $7B nuclear-for-AI option with no revenue. The bear case is that NRC licensing and first-plant construction are years out, while the valuation already assumes success. The bull case is that a license approval and signed power contracts justify the analysts' target, which is twice the current price. Biggest downside factor: MCR at 94.8 with effectively no revenue. Risks: analysts see 2x upside, federal nuclear support, and net cash at 34.8% of market cap.
QBTS, D-Wave Quantum, OM Score −97.5, SMP −237.5, OM2 91.4, Near Pass, 3/5 signature. MCR 99.5, the highest in the book, VSR 97.9, FRM 0.8, EQS 33.0, Trifecta Ratio 0.308, ROIC −26.7%, fwd EV/Sales 90.2x, forward revenue growth −44.2%, 1.22x OM target and 0.48x sell-side target, short interest 19.2%, beta 4.32. D-Wave builds annealing quantum computers and sells access via the cloud. The market treats it as a leading pure-play quantum stock in a speculative sector. The bear case is 90x forward sales on shrinking revenue, with commercial quantum advantage still unproven. The bull case is that government contracts and a quantum-advantage milestone make it a strategic asset. Biggest downside factor: MCR at 99.5. Risks: quantum-sector hype squeezes, beta of 4.32, and a sell-side target at 2x the current price.
MSTR, Strategy Inc., OM Score −131.7, SMP −371.7, OM2 90.9, Strict Pass, 5/5 signature. MCR 90.9, VSR 86.3, BDR 78.9, EQS 17.1, CAS 37.4, Trifecta Ratio 0.065, ROIC −56.7%, fwd EV/Sales 151x, 1.32x OM target, stock price change +26.6%, beta 2.74. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, is the largest corporate bitcoin holder, and it funds purchases with equity, convertibles and preferred stock. The market values it on bitcoin exposure and its premium to net asset value (NAV). The bear case is that the premium to NAV is compressing, preferred dividends are rising, and the operating software business is immaterial at 151x sales. The bull case is that bitcoin keeps rising and Strategy's issuance machine compounds bitcoin per share. Biggest downside factor: SMP at −371.7, the second worst in the book. Risks: a bitcoin rally, a $59B market cap with passive-index demand, and Saylor-driven retail momentum.
AEHR, Aehr Test Systems, OM Score −155.5, SMP −340.2, OM2 90.4, Strict Pass, 2/5 signature. MCR 98.1, VSR 95.5, FRM 12.0, EQS 41.1, Trifecta Ratio 0.443, ROIC −3.9%, fwd EV/EBITDA 121.7x, fwd EV/Sales 21.6x, forward revenue growth −15.2%, 1.40x OM target, short interest 13.3%, beta 4.69. Aehr makes wafer-level burn-in and test systems, originally for SiC electric-vehicle chips and now for AI processors. The market prices it on the AI-test pivot after EV-related demand faded. The bear case is 122x forward EBITDA on revenue that is declining 15%, with lumpy customer concentration. The bull case is that AI processor burn-in orders from a major hyperscaler customer create a new growth leg. Biggest downside factor: MCR at 98.1. Risks: single large-order announcements, beta of 4.69, the highest in the book among Strict Passes, and a 2/5 signature (Trifecta Ratio only 0.443).
KEEL, Keel Infrastructure, OM Score −113.0, SMP −234.4, OM2 90.4, Near Pass, 5/5 signature. VSR 96.2, MCR 85.7, BDR 73.3, EQS 5.8, CAS 30.0, Trifecta Ratio 0.002, ROIC −41.2%, fwd EV/Sales 32.8x, fwd FCF/EV −10.4%, net debt 13.0% of market cap, short interest 20.3%, stock price change +13.4%. Keel is a data center and digital infrastructure developer building capacity for AI compute demand. The market prices it on its announced megawatt pipeline rather than delivered earnings. The bear case is that it has bottom-decile earnings quality with a 0.002 Trifecta Ratio, and it is funding a speculative build-out on a levered balance sheet. The bull case is that signed hyperscaler leases convert the pipeline into contracted cash flow and re-rate the stock as infrastructure. Biggest downside factor: EQS at 5.8 with CAS at 30.0. Risks: lease announcements, 20.3% short interest, and AI-infrastructure sector momentum.
RBRK, Rubrik, OM Score −73.8, SMP −232.4, OM2 89.8, Near Pass, 2/5 signature. BDR 94.7, FRM 89.7, VSR 80.5, MCR 79.2, EQS 37.0, Trifecta Ratio 0.739, ROIC −40.6%, fwd EV/EBITDA 221x, fwd EV/Sales 11.6x, fwd FCF/EV 1.7%, forward revenue growth 42.4%, stock price change +29.3%. Rubrik sells cyber-resilience and data-backup software as a subscription. The market views it as a high-growth security winner with an AI data angle. The bear case is 221x forward EBITDA after a 29% run, with losses on a GAAP basis. The bull case is that 42% growth and a 31% trailing FCF margin show the model already works, and the multiple compresses naturally as the business scales. Biggest downside factor: BDR at 94.7. Risks: a strong FRM at 89.7, a high Trifecta Ratio for a short (0.739), and software M&A premiums. This is the weakest-conviction short by signature (2/5).
CLSK, CleanSpark, OM Score −74.3, SMP −208.9, OM2 89.5, Near Pass, 5/5 signature. VSR 96.5, MCR 85.9, CAS 13.5, EQS 20.8, Trifecta Ratio 0.155, ROIC −37.5%, fwd FCF/EV −71.1%, the worst in the book, fwd EV/EBITDA 40.0x, net debt 42.6% of market cap, short interest 30.3%, beta 2.60. CleanSpark is a US bitcoin miner that is repositioning its sites for AI and high-performance computing (HPC). The market treats it as a bitcoin-price proxy with an AI-hosting option. The bear case is that capex consumes cash equal to 71% of EV, while the post-halving economics compress margins. The bull case is that an HPC lease at one of its power sites re-rates the stock as a data-center company. Biggest downside factor: fwd FCF/EV at −71.1%. Risks: 30.3% short interest, a bitcoin rally, and HPC lease headlines.
MAC, Macerich, OM Score −410.8, the lowest in the book, SMP −432.0, OM2 89.5, Strict Pass, 4/5 signature. BDR 89.9, MCR 88.8, CAS 14.7, EQS 50.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.365, ROIC −4.4%, fwd EV/EBITDA 16.5x, fwd EV/Sales 11.2x, net debt 72.9% of market cap, 4.09x OM target and 3.56x sell-side target. Macerich is a REIT that owns Class A regional malls in coastal US markets and is executing a turnaround plan built on asset sales and deleveraging. The market sees it as a recovering mall REIT with improving leasing. The bear case is that the stock trades at 3.6x the sell-side target on a heavily levered balance sheet, and mall NOI growth is slow. The bull case is that asset sales cut debt quickly and occupancy gains lift funds from operations (FFO). Biggest downside factor: price at 4.09x the OM target. Risks: low beta (0.68) makes it a slow grind, rate cuts help REITs, and the dividend creates carry cost.
MARA, MARA Holdings, OM Score −116.9, SMP −162.3, OM2 89.2, Near Pass, 5/5 signature. VSR 94.1, EQS 2.6, CAS 13.0, MCR 78.5, BDR 78.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.001, ROIC −59.2%, fwd EV/EBITDA 10.4x, fwd FCF/EV −9.8%, net debt 40.0% of market cap, short interest 28.5%, stock price change +12.4%. MARA is one of the largest bitcoin miners and also holds a large bitcoin treasury funded by convertibles. The market treats it as a levered bitcoin proxy. The bear case is bottom-tier earnings quality, rising debt and a flat hashprice, with the held bitcoin masking operating losses. The bull case is that a bitcoin rally lifts both mining margins and treasury value at once. Biggest downside factor: EQS at 2.6. Risks: bitcoin upside, 28.5% short interest, and an implied-margin data flag above 70%.
WGS, GeneDx Holdings, OM Score −101.4, SMP −259.1, OM2 89.1, Near Pass, 4/5 signature. BDR 98.5, VSR 75.6, MCR 74.8, EQS 25.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.221, ROIC −26.5%, fwd EV/EBITDA 86.8x, fwd EV/Sales 5.7x, forward revenue growth 25.4%, 1.23x OM target and 1.12x sell-side target, short interest 20.1%, stock price change +18.6%. GeneDx provides exome and genome sequencing for rare-disease diagnosis, mainly in pediatric and NICU settings. The market views it as a genomics turnaround that has become profitable on rising test volumes. The bear case is 87x forward EBITDA and a price above the sell-side target after a large run, with reimbursement risk. The bull case is that newborn and NICU sequencing adoption keeps volume growth at 25%+. Biggest downside factor: BDR at 98.5. Risks: strong fundamental momentum, 20.1% short interest, and the possibility of guidance raises.
RIOT, Riot Platforms, OM Score −68.8, SMP −245.2, OM2 89.1, Near Pass, 5/5 signature. VSR 92.1, MCR 81.3, BDR 77.7, EQS 11.4, CAS 37.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.139, ROIC −36.6%, fwd EV/EBITDA 99.8x, fwd EV/Sales 13.1x, fwd FCF/EV −15.3%, short interest 13.8%, beta 2.40. Riot is a Texas-based bitcoin miner that is converting its Corsicana site into AI and HPC data-center capacity. The market prices it on the value of its power capacity for AI hosting. The bear case is 100x forward EBITDA with negative free cash flow, heavy capex and no signed hyperscaler lease. The bull case is that a large HPC tenant signs and the stock re-rates to data-center valuations. Biggest downside factor: fwd EV/EBITDA at 99.8x. Risks: HPC lease announcements, a bitcoin rally, and AI-infrastructure sector momentum.
VOYG, Voyager Technologies, OM Score −101.3, SMP −156.9, OM2 88.9, Near Pass, 5/5 signature. VSR 96.6, BDR 81.6, MCR 72.6, EQS 9.5, CAS 37.3, Trifecta Ratio 0.315, ROIC −18.8%, fwd EV/Sales 5.6x, fwd FCF/EV −12.0%, 1.23x OM target, short interest 15.0%, beta 4.80, the highest in the book. Voyager is a defense and space technology company developing the Starlab commercial space station alongside its defense and national security products. The market treats it as a 2025 space IPO riding space-economy enthusiasm. The bear case is that Starlab needs years of heavy capex before revenue, and the existing business burns cash. The bull case is that NASA commercial station awards and defense contracts de-risk the plan. Biggest downside factor: VSR at 96.6. Risks: beta of 4.80, government contract announcements, and space-sector momentum.
CIFR, Cipher Digital, OM Score −93.7, SMP −281.3, OM2 88.7, Near Pass, 5/5 signature. VSR 92.9, MCR 82.8, EQS 4.6, CAS 15.7, Trifecta Ratio 0.003, ROIC −31.5%, fwd EV/EBITDA 40.5x, fwd EV/Sales 21.8x, fwd FCF/EV −24.6%, net debt 62.5% of market cap, short interest 17.3%. Cipher, formerly Cipher Mining, is a bitcoin miner turned HPC data-center developer with signed leases to AI tenants. The market prices it as one of the more credible miner-to-AI transitions. The bear case is that debt-funded build-out burns 25% of EV per year before leases produce steady cash flow. The bull case is that contracted hyperscaler revenue ramps and justifies the analysts' target, which is well above the current price. Biggest downside factor: EQS at 4.6 with net debt at 62.5% of market cap. Risks: signed-lease credibility, a 0.59x sell-side target, and AI-infrastructure momentum.
BBAI, BigBear.ai, OM Score −80.9, SMP −141.1, OM2 88.5, Near Pass, 3/5 signature. VSR 98.3, MCR 89.8, FRM 3.8, EQS 34.1, Trifecta Ratio 0.216, ROIC −14.6%, fwd EV/Sales 6.9x, fwd FCF/EV −4.1%, forward revenue growth −13.7%, 1.18x OM target, short interest 30.3%, beta 3.20. BigBear.ai sells AI-driven decision intelligence and analytics, mainly to defense, border security and government customers. The market treats it as a low-priced AI and defense momentum stock. The bear case is shrinking revenue, persistent losses and a history of dilution, with a valuation driven by AI branding. The bull case is that defense budget increases and new government contracts restart growth. Biggest downside factor: VSR at 98.3. Risks: 30.3% short interest, tied for the highest in the book, net cash at 22.1% of market cap, and retail-driven squeezes.
ALMU, Aeluma, OM Score −173.1, SMP −313.1, OM2 88.4, Strict Pass, 3/5 signature. VSR 97.6, MCR 96.7, FRM 15.8, EQS 35.8, Trifecta Ratio 0.019, ROIC −23.5%, fwd EV/Sales 54.8x, 1.47x OM target, short interest 19.2%, beta 3.84. Aeluma develops semiconductor photodetectors and short-wave infrared (SWIR) sensors built on large-diameter wafers, targeting defense, AI data-center optics and quantum. The market prices it as a small-cap photonics story on government contracts. The bear case is 55x forward sales for a $245M company with minimal commercial revenue. The bull case is that defense and optical-interconnect contracts scale its wafer approach into real volume. Biggest downside factor: MCR at 96.7. Risks: micro-cap liquidity and borrow costs, a 0.56x sell-side target, and contract announcements.
HTFL, HeartFlow, OM Score −143.6, SMP −218.8, OM2 88.1, Near Pass, 3/5 signature. BDR 93.0, VSR 77.9, MCR 72.1, EQS 32.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.285, ROIC −61.4%, fwd EV/Sales 15.2x, forward revenue growth 42.8%, 1.36x OM target and 1.13x sell-side target, short interest 7.0%. HeartFlow uses AI to analyze coronary CT scans and compute FFRct, a non-invasive assessment of blood-flow blockages. The market views it as a 2025 med-tech IPO with a strong growth story. The bear case is 15x forward sales on a loss-making business trading above the sell-side target. The bull case is that reimbursement expansion and guideline adoption keep growth above 40%. Biggest downside factor: BDR at 93.0. Risks: strong revenue growth, reimbursement tailwinds, and low short interest that makes the stock a candidate for a squeeze on beats.
Thank you for reading this week’s issue of The Oddsmaker. If you would like to view more content like this, or access the Oddsmaker Universe and find every stock tracked by the Oddsmaker all in one place, visit our website:
See you next week.
- The Oddsmaker Team
Disclosure & Disclaimer
The Oddsmaker is a financial media and research publication provided for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or legal, tax, or accounting advice. The Oddsmaker, its affiliates, employees, contributors, related parties, and associated accounts may hold long, short, or other positions in securities discussed and may buy or sell such securities without notice. Any scores, rankings, ratings, probabilities, expected returns, forecasts, analytics, models, simulations, or backtested results are hypothetical analytical opinions based on assumptions and methodologies that may prove incorrect. They are not guarantees of future performance or outcomes. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, The Oddsmaker makes no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting qualified financial, legal, tax, and accounting professionals before making investment decisions.
© The Oddsmaker. All rights reserved.
