Welcome to this week’s Oddsmaker Top 25 Best and Worst. First, a brief update on the recently weekly performance of the Oddsmaker Top 25 Best and Worst Picks:
Average weekly long/short spread of +11.9%, positive in 11 of 13 weeks. The remaining two weeks were 0.0%, not negative.
The long book was up in all 12 scored weeks, in a range of +1% to +11%.
Longs outperformed SPY in every scored week, averaging +4.2% excess. The stated long hit rate is 59%.
Widest spread: 6-15 at +28% (longs +5%, shorts −24%), followed by 6-22 at +27% and 6-8 at +25%.
The short book's contribution is concentrated in June. Shorts returned −24%, −23% and −14% in the 6-15, 6-22 and 6-8 weeks, and −3% to −2% in the two most recent scored weeks. Shorts were positive in two weeks (7-20 at +8%, 7-27 at +3%).
Top 25 Best Stocks In The Market Now
IMPP, Imperial Petroleum, OM Score 145.7. SMP 562.6, 5/5, the universe's only Strict Pass. RAVG 99.0, CAS 93.6, TRS 89.0, net cash 81% of market cap, 0.32x fwd EV/EBITDA. Greek product tanker and dry bulk owner the market writes off as an ungovernable micro-cap. Bull: $212M net cash against a $262M market cap plus 13% ROIC. Bear: the governance discount never closes. Biggest upside: RAVG 99.0, the top revision read in the book. Risks: related-party dealings, illiquidity, charter rates that can halve in two quarters.
SLDE, Slide Insurance, OM Score 119.5. SMP 571.8, 4/5. EQS 98.0, TRS 93.8, CAS 88.1, Trifecta 0.997, ROIC 51.8%, 2.28x fwd EV/EBITDA, net cash 41% of market cap. Florida homeowners insurer with a tech-driven pricing stack, discounted for hurricane exposure. Bull: tort reform lowered loss costs while book value compounds at 50%+ ROIC. Bear: one landfall resets the thesis. Biggest upside: EQS 98.0, the highest in the book. Risks: single-storm exposure, TTM flag on the multiple, no revision data.
MU, Micron, OM Score 107.8. SMP 506.6, 4/5. FRM 98.6, TRS 94.5, ROIC 57.3%, 167% forward revenue growth, 5.19x fwd EV/EBITDA, 0.63x sell-side target. DRAM/NAND maker and the key Western HBM supplier; the market now debates cycle length, not cycle existence. Bull: 167% growth at 5x EBITDA. Bear: 5x on peak memory earnings isn't cheap. Biggest upside: FRM 98.6, top of the universe. Risks: beta 2.94, RAVG only 46.0, margin>70% flag.
SNDK, Sandisk, OM Score 95.1. SMP 536.0, 4/5. FRM 99.0, EQS 95.6, Trifecta 0.999, ROIC 84.0%, 175% forward revenue growth, 5.91x fwd EV/EBITDA. The NAND business spun from Western Digital, still priced as commodity flash rather than AI storage. Bull: 84% ROIC and 175% growth under 6x EBITDA. Bear: NAND is more oversupplied than DRAM and the HDD cash cushion is gone. Biggest upside: FRM 99.0 with Trifecta 0.999. Risks: beta 3.82, the highest long, Samsung/Kioxia capacity control, margin>70% flag.
DAVE, Dave Inc., OM Score 96.6. SMP 488.7, 5/5. FRM 94.2, EQS 92.7, ROIC 57.9%, ROE 104.8%, 49% forward revenue growth, 56% forward FCF margin, short interest 18.9%. Neobank making small-dollar advances to consumers outside traditional credit. Bull: growth plus a 56% FCF margin most fintechs never reach. Bear: repayment rates untested through a downturn. Biggest upside: EQS 92.7 with 105% ROE — unit economics already proven. Risks: CFPB action on advance fees, 18.9% short interest, OLI 34.8.
NVDA, NVIDIA, OM Score 83.6. SMP 450.1, 5/5. FRM 96.3, RAVG 95.5, ROIC 98.3%, 83% forward revenue growth, 86% forward FCF margin, 14.82x fwd EV/EBITDA, 0.67x sell-side target. Supplies the accelerators and CUDA layer most AI runs on. Bull: 98% ROIC and 83% growth under 15x EBITDA. Bear: five customers set the entire demand curve. Biggest upside: RAVG 95.5 with FRM 96.3 — estimates and fundamentals moving together. Risks: hyperscaler concentration, export controls, TRS only 66.6.
HL, Hecla Mining, OM Score 89.5. SMP 359.3, 5/5. FRM 96.0, RAVG 92.2, OLI 81.0, Trifecta 0.816, 90% forward revenue growth, 180% EBITDA growth, 14.77x fwd EV/EBITDA. Largest US primary silver producer with gold exposure; the market expects operational disappointment. Bull: massive metal-price operating leverage on a clean balance sheet. Bear: 14.8x prices in a mean-reverting silver level. Biggest upside: FRM 96.0 — leverage not yet capitalized. Risks: commodity dependence, Lucky Friday concentration at beta 2.02, Trifecta 0.816, weakest of the top ten.
GRND, Grindr, OM Score 99.3. SMP 484.2, 4/5. EQS 88.9, FRM 88.3, ROE 108.7%, 32% forward revenue growth, 37% forward FCF margin, 12.36x fwd EV/EBITDA. Dominant LGBTQ dating and social app monetized through subscriptions and ads. Bull: network-effect asset with no real competitor in its niche. Bear: app-store fees and a single-demographic base cap terminal size. Biggest upside: EQS 88.9 with 109% ROE. Risks: Apple and Google take 30% and own distribution, no revision coverage, net debt 14% of market cap.
ADSK, Autodesk, OM Score 98.7. SMP 480.4, 5/5. RAVG 92.9, EQS 88.1, OLI 83.9, TRS 23.4, ROIC 26.2%, 40% trailing FCF margin, 11.96x fwd EV/EBITDA. AutoCAD and Revit into architecture, construction and manufacturing; seen as ex-growth with AI disruption risk. Bull: 40% FCF margin in a workflow monopoly at 12x EBITDA. Bear: 17.9% growth decelerating with no reacceleration path. Biggest upside: RAVG 92.9 on a written-off name. Risks: TRS 23.4, the worst momentum in the book, end-market cyclicality, generative design tools.
SM, SM Energy, OM Score 92.9. SMP 511.6, 4/5. TRS 92.4, RAVG 91.4, CAS 41.9, 65% forward revenue growth, 11.1% fwd FCF/EV, 3.08x fwd EV/EBITDA, net debt 75% of market cap. Midland, Eagle Ford and Uinta producer seen as over-levered after the Uinta deal. Bull: 65% growth and an 11% FCF yield at 3x EBITDA. Bear: $6.8B net debt leaves no room for weak oil. Biggest upside: TRS 92.4 with RAVG 91.4 on a deleveraging-failure price. Risks: leverage, CAS 41.9, lowest long, oil price dependence.
NUTX, Nutex Health, OM Score 118.3. SMP 410.6, 4/5. TRS 97.5, RAVG 81.7, Trifecta 0.728, ROIC 23.4%, 5.90x fwd EV/EBITDA, short interest 17.0%. Micro-hospital and freestanding ER operator earning heavily from No Surprises Act arbitration awards. Bull: IDR win rates have proven durable across quarters while the footprint expands. Bear: one regulatory change removes most of the earnings power. Biggest upside: TRS 97.5, highest momentum in the book. Risks: arbitration-regime dependence, 17% short interest, Trifecta 0.728, weakest validation in the book.
ADBE, Adobe, OM Score 89.6. SMP 481.6, 5/5. EQS 93.3, RAVG 86.5, OLI 81.7, ROIC 39.4%, 42% forward FCF margin, 7.52x fwd EV/EBITDA. Creative, Document and Experience Cloud; derated on the assumption generative AI commoditizes design tooling. Bull: 42% FCF margin and 39% ROIC at 7.5x EBITDA with Firefly monetization ahead. Bear: 12% forward growth says the disruption is already visible. Biggest upside: EQS 93.3 — cash generation intact regardless of narrative. Risks: cheap AI alternatives, FRM 67.3, 0.90x sell-side target.
HCI, HCI Group, OM Score 128.1 — second-highest OM Score in the book. SMP 531.6, 4/5. EQS 95.2, CAS 86.5, ROIC 27.7%, net cash 35% of market cap, 3.40x fwd EV/EBITDA. Florida homeowners insurer via TypTap and Homeowners Choice, discounted for catastrophe risk and holding-company complexity. Bull: 28% ROIC and $805M net cash at 3.4x EBITDA. Bear: same single-variable hurricane exposure. Biggest upside: EQS 95.2 plus a balance sheet that absorbs a bad season. Risks: landfall risk, TTM flag, no revision data.
MGY, Magnolia Oil & Gas, OM Score 106.1. SMP 519.2, 5/5. RAVG 91.0, EQS 80.0, 14.1% fwd FCF/EV, 64% forward FCF margin, 3.60x fwd EV/EBITDA, essentially debt-free. South Texas producer that caps growth and returns cash; the market won't pay for discipline. Bull: 14% FCF yield with no debt and a shrinking share count. Bear: 11% growth means returns depend entirely on buyback execution. Biggest upside: 64% FCF margin at 3.6x — the yield works without a commodity move. Risks: unhedged price exposure, TRS 42.4, margin>70% flag.
HRB, H&R Block, OM Score 99.6. SMP 450.7, 5/5. RAVG 94.9, TRS 86.4, FRM 34.1, ROIC 24.1%, 5.98x fwd EV/EBITDA, short interest 13.6%. Assisted and DIY tax prep across a large retail footprint; viewed as a melting ice cube. Bull: 24% ROIC and heavy buybacks at 6x EBITDA on annuity-like seasonal revenue. Bear: 4.9% growth and FRM 34.1 confirm structural decline. Biggest upside: RAVG 94.9 with TRS 86.4 — estimates and price both improving. Risks: weak FRM, 13.6% short interest, AI-assisted filing.
AU, AngloGold Ashanti, OM Score 85.4. SMP 503.2, 5/5. FRM 93.0, EQS 90.7, ROE 44.7%, 55% forward revenue growth, 6.10x fwd EV/EBITDA, 0.90x sell-side target. Large gold producer discounted for Ghana and Tanzania jurisdiction risk versus North American peers. Bull: 55% growth and 45% ROE at 6x EBITDA — a peer gap with no operational justification. Bear: the discount is permanent because the assets can't move. Biggest upside: FRM 93.0. Risks: resource nationalism, beta 1.97 on an elevated gold price, margin>70% flag.
AEM, Agnico Eagle, OM Score 86.8. SMP 475.8, 4/5. FRM 91.8, CAS 86.2, ROIC 19.5%, 50% forward revenue growth, 8.43x fwd EV/EBITDA, 0.93x sell-side target. Highest-jurisdiction-quality gold producer — Canada, Finland, Australia — and the most expensive metals name here. Bull: 50% growth and 19.5% ROIC with near-zero political risk. Bear: 8.4x already embeds the quality premium. Biggest upside: CAS 86.2, the best capital allocation of the three metals names. Risks: three precious metals longs is concentrated macro exposure, no revision data, 0.93x target.
RDDT, Reddit, OM Score 89.9. SMP 460.9, 5/5. FRM 96.3, EQS 93.2, CAS 92.8, TRS 41.2, 67% forward revenue growth, 444% EBITDA growth, 15.65x fwd EV/EBITDA. Largest forum platform, monetized via ads and AI data licensing. Bull: operating leverage arriving plus near-100%-margin licensing revenue. Bear: the richest multiple in the book on traffic Google controls. Biggest upside: FRM 96.3 with CAS 92.8 — inflecting to profit without consuming capital. Risks: Google algorithm dependence, TRS 41.2, beta 2.82.
XZO, Exzeo Group, OM Score 119.8. SMP 454.8, 4/5. EQS 94.6, FRM 87.5, ROIC 48.3%, 58% forward FCF margin, 10.32x fwd EV/EBITDA, 0.62x sell-side target — the largest discount in the book. HCI's separated insurance-software arm: underwriting, claims and policy administration. Bull: software-grade margins and 48% ROIC at 10x EBITDA. Bear: revenue concentration with HCI means it isn't really independent. Biggest upside: EQS 94.6 with 48% ROIC. Risks: parent concentration, no revision data, thin trading history at beta 2.06.
MNTN, MNTN Inc., OM Score 90.3. SMP 462.2, 5/5. CAS 95.1, TRS 87.7, OLI 16.9, 16.1% fwd FCF/EV, 449% EBITDA growth, net cash 27% of market cap, 1.68x fwd EV/Sales. Self-serve connected-TV ad platform for performance marketers. Bull: 16% FCF yield and net cash at 27% of market cap at 1.7x sales. Bear: ad-tech intermediaries get disintermediated by the platforms they resell. Biggest upside: CAS 95.1 — top-5% returns priced as a marginal operator. Risks: OLI 16.9, the weakest long, $885M float, ad budgets cut first.
STNG, Scorpio Tankers, OM Score 107.0. SMP 510.7, 4/5. CAS 93.1, FRM 87.0, 9.5% fwd FCF/EV, 5.65x fwd EV/EBITDA, net cash 29% of market cap, beta 0.18. Large product tanker fleet; the market treats every rate spike as the peak. Bull: 33% growth and a 9.5% FCF yield with net cash and genuinely uncorrelated cash flow. Bear: product tanker rates can halve in two quarters. Biggest upside: CAS 93.1 — the cycle already converted into balance sheet, not fleet expansion. Risks: rate volatility, RAVG 49.4, OLI 38.0.
EVER, EverQuote, OM Score 104.8. SMP 475.8, 4/5. CAS 96.7, TRS 86.0, ROIC 53.0%, 14.8% fwd FCF/EV, 0.78x fwd EV/Sales, net cash 23% of market cap, short interest 19.2%. Online insurance marketplace selling leads to auto and home carriers. Bull: 0.78x sales and a 14.8% FCF yield with 53% ROIC. Bear: zero switching costs — carriers can cut to zero in a quarter. Biggest upside: CAS 96.7, second-highest in the book, on a near-zero-capital model. Risks: 19.2% short interest on an $845M cap, OLI 18.1, single demand driver.
SBC, SBC Medical Group, OM Score 104.0. SMP 482.3, 5/5. RAVG 96.3, TRS 93.9, FRM 9.1, 4.27x fwd EV/EBITDA, net cash 30% of market cap, forward revenue growth −6.9%, forward FCF/EV −1.5%. Manages Japanese cosmetic surgery clinics on a royalty and service-fee model. Bull: capital-light royalties, net cash at 30% of cap, 4.3x EBITDA. Bear: forward revenue and FCF are both negative — fundamentals are contracting now. Biggest upside: RAVG 96.3 against FRM 9.1, the widest divergence in the book. Risks: weakest FRM among the longs, related-party economics, $459M SPAC-listed cap.
PATH, UiPath, OM Score 69.8 — the lowest in the book. SMP 414.9, 5/5. CAS 92.6, RAVG 92.2, OLI 84.8, TRS 81.9, ROIC 19.2%, 12.05x fwd EV/EBITDA, net cash 19% of market cap, short interest 19.8%. RPA software the market believes agentic AI makes obsolete. Bull: $1.3B net cash and 19% ROIC at 12x EBITDA, with RPA repositioned as the execution layer under AI agents. Bear: the disruption thesis is simply correct. Biggest upside: RAVG 92.2 with TRS 81.9 — estimates and price both turning. Risks: 19.8% short interest, weakest core signal in the book, unresolved disruption risk.
DLO, DLocal, OM Score 93.6. SMP 512.3, 5/5. CAS 91.9, FRM 87.8, Trifecta 0.996, ROIC 26.3%, 57% forward revenue growth, 8.63x fwd EV/EBITDA, net cash 19% of market cap. Cross-border payments into Latin America, Africa and Asia, discounted for FX risk and a prior short report. Bull: 57% growth and 26% ROIC at 8.6x EBITDA. Bear: take rates already compressing as large merchants gain leverage. Biggest upside: 57% growth with CAS 91.9 — fast growth while generating cash. Risks: EM currency devaluation, unresolved disclosure questions, OLI 25.3.
Top 25 Worst Stocks In The Market Now
NVTS, Navitas Semiconductor, OM Score −217.1. SMP −347.9, Strict Pass. MCR 99.1, VSR 96.6, ROIC −52.1%, revenue −46.4%, 40.4x fwd EV/Sales, beta 4.67, 1.66x the OM target — the widest overshoot in the book. GaN and SiC power chips, re-rated on an AI datacenter power partnership. Bear: 40x sales on revenue falling 46%. Bull: the design win is real and 2027 inflects. Biggest downside: MCR 99.1, effectively the universe top. Risks: beta 4.67, 15.3% short interest, headline re-rating risk.
AEHR, Aehr Test Systems, OM Score −201.2. SMP −387.2, the most negative in the book, Strict Pass. MCR 98.1, VSR 95.5, 123.3x fwd EV/EBITDA, 21.9x fwd EV/Sales, revenue −15.2%, beta 4.72, price +24.2%. Wafer-level burn-in test, repositioned from SiC toward AI and photonics. Bear: 123x EBITDA on shrinking revenue. Bull: AI packaging test is a genuine second act. Biggest downside: MCR 98.1 after a 24% run with no earnings follow-through. Risks: beta 4.72, highest in the book, 2/5 signature, Trifecta 0.443 fails the short threshold.
SPCE, Virgin Galactic, OM Score −123.4. SMP −195.1, 5/5. VSR 98.4, EQS 1.7, FRM 0.7, Trifecta 0.001, fwd FCF/EV −54.0%, revenue −38.9%, short interest 23.8%, beta 3.74. Suborbital spaceflight, currently in commercial pause pending Delta-class ships. Bear: almost no revenue, −54% FCF/EV, bottom-2% quality. Bull: Delta enters service before cash runs out. Biggest downside: EQS 1.7 and FRM 0.7 — the fundamental floor of the universe. Risks: 23.8% short interest on a $443M cap, flight-milestone catalysts, costly borrow.
QBTS, D-Wave Quantum, OM Score −101.3. SMP −241.3. MCR 99.5, VSR 98.0, FRM 0.8, ROIC −26.7%, 88.5x fwd EV/Sales, revenue −44.2%, short interest 19.2%, beta 4.63. Quantum annealing systems and cloud access, valued as a pure commercialization option. Bear: 88x sales with revenue down 44% on a narrower technical approach than gate-model quantum. Bull: policy-driven funding can deliver contracts regardless of revenue. Biggest downside: MCR 99.5 with no earnings denominator under a $6.3B cap. Risks: beta 4.63 plus 19.2% short interest, sector-wide news flow, 0.47x sell-side target.
ASST, Strive Inc., OM Score −106.7. SMP −246.7. BDR 84.3, VSR 97.3, ROIC −141.5%, 261x fwd EV/Sales, short interest 23.1%, beta 3.10. Asset manager merged into Semler Scientific, valued primarily as a bitcoin treasury proxy. Bear: 261x sales and the worst ROIC in the book on a leveraged claim to a volatile asset. Bull: bitcoin compounds NAV faster than the operating business burns. Biggest downside: BDR 84.3 — price detached from both model and sell-side anchors. Risks: this is a bitcoin short, not a business short, 23.1% short interest, FRM 69.4 improving.
AI, C3.ai, OM Score −159.3. SMP −218.5. MCR 85.6, VSR 94.8, FRM 1.6, ROIC −55.3%, revenue −37.5%, net cash 35% of market cap, short interest 29.0%, 1.18x the sell-side target. Enterprise AI applications into energy, defense and manufacturing. Bear: revenue down 37.5% with −55% ROIC while still carrying an AI premium. Bull: $592M net cash is a hard floor and an acquisition setup. Biggest downside: trading above both the OM and sell-side targets — rare and the strongest confirmation here. Risks: 29.0% short interest, cash floor, takeover speculation.
IE, Ivanhoe Electric, OM Score −92.2. SMP −232.2. MCR 99.3, FRM 1.4, 457x fwd EV/Sales, fwd FCF/EV −24.3%, beta 3.37, 0.49x the sell-side target. Pre-production copper explorer (Santa Cruz, Arizona) with a proprietary geophysics tool and the Friedland halo. Bear: 457x sales with no production and years of permitting and capital raises ahead. Bull: a US copper deposit is strategically valuable at nearly any cost. Biggest downside: MCR 99.3 — valuation rests entirely on a discounted future resource. Risks: copper strength re-rates all explorers, only 6.6% short interest, big consensus upside.
KEEL, Keel Infrastructure, OM Score −70.1. SMP −185.2, 5/5. VSR 96.9, EQS 5.6, CAS 29.1, Trifecta 0.002, ROIC −41.2%, 29.6x fwd EV/Sales, net debt 15% of market cap, short interest 20.3%, beta 3.17. Recently-public datacenter and digital infrastructure developer. Bear: bottom-6% earnings quality funding speculative buildout with debt. Bull: signed hyperscaler leases convert pipeline into contracted cash flow. Biggest downside: EQS 5.6 with CAS 29.1 — heavy capital consumption, nothing earned yet. Risks: one lease announcement can double it, 20.3% short interest, powerful theme sponsorship.
CLSK, CleanSpark, OM Score −66.6. SMP −96.6, 5/5. VSR 97.1, CAS 12.6, ROIC −37.5%, 38.4x fwd EV/EBITDA, net debt 45% of market cap, short interest 30.3%, beta 2.79. Southeast bitcoin miner pivoting capacity toward AI and HPC hosting. Bear: 38x EBITDA and −37.5% ROIC with heavy debt in a business whose revenue halves every four years. Bull: power capacity converts from a mining multiple to an infrastructure multiple. Biggest downside: CAS 12.6, the weakest capital allocation here. Risks: 30.3% short interest, bitcoin beta, binary AI-contract news.
HUT, Hut 8, OM Score −142.1. SMP −382.1, 5/5, Strict Pass. EQS 7.2, CAS 18.4, 220x fwd EV/EBITDA, 60.8x fwd EV/Sales, net debt 61% of market cap — the most levered in the book, revenue +129.5%, beta 3.06, price +11.9%. Bitcoin miner building out power and datacenter assets. Bear: 220x EBITDA with $7.4B net debt and bottom-decile quality. Bull: 129.5% forward revenue growth as capacity energizes. Biggest downside: 61% net debt under a 220x multiple — no earnings cushion. Risks: FRM 61.2 works against the short, already run 11.9%, violent conversion headlines.
FCEL, FuelCell Energy, OM Score −113.4. SMP −175.0. BDR 78.3, VSR 94.0, EQS 8.5, Trifecta 0.026, ROIC −18.1%, fwd FCF/EV −15.4%, revenue +1.1%, net cash 39% of market cap, short interest 25.1%. Carbonate and solid-oxide fuel cell platforms, repeatedly bid on hydrogen and datacenter power headlines. Bear: two decades of losses and flat revenue across every policy regime. Bull: datacenter power scarcity finally creates a paying customer. Biggest downside: EQS 8.5 with Trifecta 0.026. Risks: 25.1% short interest, net cash floor at 39%, policy headline risk.
SLDP, Solid Power, OM Score −85.7. SMP −225.7. MCR 99.3, Trifecta 0.004, ROIC −20.2%, 57.9x fwd EV/Sales, revenue −64.3%, net cash 41% of market cap, beta 1.32 — the lowest in the book, 0.37x sell-side target. Sulfide solid-state battery developer with BMW and Ford partnerships. Bear: revenue down 64% at 58x sales with repeatedly slipping timelines. Bull: $235M net cash funds years and an OEM milestone re-rates instantly. Biggest downside: MCR 99.3 with contracting revenue and no earnings anchor. Risks: hard cash floor, binary OEM catalysts, consensus models ~3x upside.
WULF, TeraWulf, OM Score −118.2. SMP −130.2, 5/5. EQS 2.4, CAS 15.8, ROIC −64.3%, ROE −1,212%, 40.1x fwd EV/EBITDA, fwd FCF/EV −30.7%, net debt 31% of market cap, short interest 24.5%. Lake Mariner bitcoin mining and HPC hosting with announced AI agreements. Bear: −64% ROIC and −31% forward FCF/EV, debt-funded. Bull: contracted AI hosting revenue is signed and beginning to flow. Biggest downside: EQS 2.4, second-lowest in the book, at 40x EBITDA. Risks: the AI conversion is actually ramping, 24.5% short interest, 0.47x sell-side target.
ALMU, Aeluma, OM Score −108.3. SMP −237.6. VSR 97.8, Trifecta 0.031, ROIC −20.0%, 37.9x fwd EV/Sales, revenue +43.2%, short interest 20.2%, beta 3.97, $245M market cap. Photonic and semiconductor materials on large-diameter silicon for sensing, comms and quantum. Bear: 38x sales on a $245M company with −20% ROIC. Bull: 43% growth with FRM 66.6 suggests the ramp is real. Biggest downside: VSR 97.8 with beta 3.97 — volatility is asymmetric against a short this small. Risks: micro-cap plus 20% short interest, positive FRM, expensive recallable borrow.
HTFL, HeartFlow, OM Score −114.3. SMP −189.7. BDR 88.6 — the highest in the book, ROIC −61.4%, 15.0x fwd EV/Sales, revenue +42.8%, short interest only 7.0%, 1.11x the sell-side target. AI-based non-invasive coronary CT analysis, recently public. Bear: −61% ROIC at 15x sales, trading above both targets. Bull: 43% growth with established reimbursement codes and guideline support. Biggest downside: BDR 88.6 — the most stretched price-versus-target read here, a behavioral rather than fundamental dislocation. Risks: 7% short interest means few share the thesis, FRM 59.1 improving, IPO momentum.
VOYG, Voyager Technologies, OM Score −65.7. SMP −121.3, 5/5. VSR 96.6, EQS 9.4, ROIC −18.8%, fwd FCF/EV −12.7%, forward EBITDA −$123M, beta 4.77 — the highest in the book, short interest 15.0%. Space infrastructure and defense tech, including the Starlab station concept. Bear: bottom-decile quality burning cash on a program dependent on NASA funding. Bull: a commercial LEO destinations award validates everything. Biggest downside: EQS 9.4 — cash burn with no demonstrated earnings capability. Risks: beta 4.77, binary NASA awards, sector-wide budget headlines.
SMR, NuScale Power, OM Score −152.5. SMP −289.6. MCR 99.3, EQS 3.2, FRM 0.3 — the floor of the universe, Trifecta 0.002, revenue −81.0%, 40.5x fwd EV/Sales, net cash 30% of market cap, beta 4.16, BDR 38.0, price −11.7%. Only NRC-approved SMR design; the purest listed nuclear renaissance play. Bear: revenue down 81% with the worst fundamental momentum in the universe. Bull: one utility or hyperscaler order creates a backlog. Biggest downside: FRM 0.3 with MCR 99.3. Risks: BDR 38.0 — the easy part of the move may be done, cash floor, policy squeezes at beta 4.16.
RIOT, Riot Platforms, OM Score −45.5 — the weakest core signal in the book. SMP −219.9, 5/5, the only Composite-tier name, entering on the composite rather than a gate. EQS 11.3, 90.7x fwd EV/EBITDA, fwd FCF/EV −18.3%, revenue +24.5%, 1.09x the OM target — the smallest overshoot here. Texas bitcoin miner converting Corsicana toward AI hosting. Bear: 91x EBITDA with −37% ROIC. Bull: low-cost ERCOT power is genuinely scarce. Biggest downside: EQS 11.3 under a 91x multiple. Risks: weakest signal, mildest dislocation, growth trend against the short.
BBAI, BigBear.ai, OM Score −81.9. SMP −143.1. MCR 90.1, VSR 98.6, FRM 3.6, revenue −13.7%, 7.06x fwd EV/Sales, net cash 22% of market cap, short interest 30.3% — tied highest in the book, beta 3.41, BDR 49.0. Defense and government decision-intelligence and computer vision, heavily retail-traded. Bear: revenue down 13.7% with FRM 3.6 on a services business priced as AI software. Bull: a large defense program award resets the trajectory in a quarter. Biggest downside: FRM 3.6, bottom-4% momentum — the AI framing isn't in the numbers. Risks: 30.3% short interest at beta 3.41, price already corrected, binary awards.
MARA, MARA Holdings, OM Score −68.7. SMP −71.4, the least negative in the book, 5/5. EQS 2.4, CAS 12.0 — the weakest in the book, Trifecta 0.001, ROIC −59.2%, 9.24x fwd EV/EBITDA, net debt 44% of market cap, short interest 28.5%, margin>70% flag. Largest listed bitcoin miner with a large BTC treasury. Bear: −59% ROIC and repeated convertible issuance deployed into non-earning assets. Bull: treasury bitcoin appreciates faster than mining destroys value. Biggest downside: CAS 12.0 with EQS 2.4. Risks: 28.5% short interest on the most retail-traded miner, it's a leveraged bitcoin short, weakest SMP of all 25.
ACHR, Archer Aviation, OM Score −97.6. SMP −237.6. MCR 94.5, VSR 93.8, ROIC −42.0%, 59.3x fwd EV/Sales, forward EBITDA −$739M, revenue growth 0.0%, net cash 33% of market cap, beta 3.32, 0.51x sell-side target. Midnight eVTOL developer pursuing FAA type certification with UAE and defense deals. Bear: zero revenue growth and $739M of negative EBITDA at 59x sales. Bull: certification converts a developer into a manufacturer with a stated backlog. Biggest downside: MCR 94.5 against zero growth — pricing a business that doesn't exist yet. Risks: $1.4B cash floor, binary certification catalysts, ~2x consensus upside.
RGTI, Rigetti Computing, OM Score −78.6. SMP −218.6, 2/5 — the weakest signature in the book. VSR 97.2, EQS 61.4, FRM 59.6, Trifecta 0.826, ROIC −43.1%, 161.9x fwd EV/Sales, revenue +68.5%, beta 4.05, 0.51x sell-side target. Superconducting gate-model quantum processors and cloud access. Bear: 162x sales with −43% ROIC on single-digit-million revenue. Bull: 69% growth with mid-pack EQS and FRM — not a distressed profile. Biggest downside: 162x forward sales, second-most extreme in the book. Risks: Trifecta 0.826 reads as a long-side profile and contradicts the thesis, 2/5 signature, sector sentiment at beta 4.05.
EOSE, Eos Energy, OM Score −90.3. SMP −148.4. VSR 99.1 — the highest squeeze read in the book, EQS 1.4 — the lowest earnings quality in the universe, ROIC −526.3%, net debt 23% of market cap, short interest 30.6% — the highest here, beta 3.96, price +12.9%, FRM 62.8, fwd-rev flag. Zinc-based long-duration grid storage. Bear: −526% ROIC and the worst earnings quality in the universe, levered. Bull: FRM 62.8 with a large backlog suggests the ramp is converting. Biggest downside: EQS 1.4 — nothing in the statements supports the equity. Risks: 30.6% short interest with VSR 99.1 and beta 3.96 is the most dangerous setup in the book, already up 12.9%, fwd-rev flag.
NN, NextNav, OM Score −106.5. SMP −246.5. MCR 99.6 — the highest in the book, FRM 0.9, Trifecta 0.002, ROIC −39.7%, 639.8x fwd EV/Sales — by far the most extreme valuation here, revenue −36.5%, BDR 43.1, 0.45x sell-side target. Terrestrial positioning and vertical location, pursuing an FCC rulemaking on its 900 MHz spectrum. Bear: 640x sales with revenue down 36.5% while value rests on a regulatory petition. Bull: a favorable FCC ruling makes the spectrum worth multiples of the cap. Biggest downside: 640x sales with MCR 99.6. Risks: binary FCC decision, price already partly corrected, >2x consensus upside.
PESI, Perma-Fix Environmental, OM Score −77.7. SMP −141.8. MCR 83.6, EQS 12.2, FRM 7.1, Trifecta 0.020, ROIC −34.0%, forward EBITDA −$2M, revenue −4.7%, beta 1.29, $398M market cap — the smallest in the book. Nuclear and mixed hazardous waste treatment for DOE sites, promoting a PFAS destruction technology. Bear: shrinking revenue with bottom-decile quality and momentum on a small government contractor priced as a technology company. Bull: DOE volumes are committed and PFAS finds a licensee. Biggest downside: EQS 12.2 with FRM 7.1 and no forward EBITDA. Risks: thin liquidity, lumpy DOE awards, beta 1.29 means less payoff per unit of risk.
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