Welcome to this week’s Oddsmaker Top 25 Best and Worst. First, a brief update on the recently weekly performance of the Oddsmaker Top 25 Best and Worst Picks:

  • +11.7% average weekly long/short spread — positive in 11 of 13 weeks, with one flat (7-20) and zero negative weeks. The core "does the ranking work" number, and it remains clearly positive.

  • Longs green in 11 of 12 scored weeks (+2% to +11%), with only 8-24 down at -1%. Still the most consistent line in the record.

  • Longs beat SPY in 11 of 12 scored weeks — +3.8% avg weekly excess, 56% long hit rate.

  • Best week: 6-15 at +28% (longs +5%, shorts -24%), followed by 6-22 at +27% and 6-8 at +25%.

Top 25 Best Stocks In The Market Now

  • SLDE, Slide Insurance Holdings, OM Score 120.1. EQS 98.0, CAS 88.2, TRS 92.3, ROIC 51.8%, net cash 41.6% of market cap, fwd EV/EBITDA 2.26x. Florida homeowners insurer using a tech-driven pricing stack; market shuns it as a coastal-catastrophe IPO. Bull: tort reform lowered loss costs and it compounds book at 50%+ ROIC. Bear: one bad hurricane season resets everything. Biggest upside is EQS 98.0, the best earnings quality in the book, at 2.3x EBITDA. Risks: single-state cat concentration, reinsurance cost inflation, no analyst revision data.

  • GRND, Grindr, OM Score 99.4. FRM 88.3, EQS 89.0, RAVG 82.8, ROIC 22.4%, fwd revenue growth 32.4%, fwd FCF margin 37.3%, 12.3x EBITDA. Dominant LGBTQ social network monetized via subscriptions and ads; market sees a niche app with governance overhangs. Bull: category monopoly converting 30%+ growth into 37% FCF margins. Bear: net debt 14.5% of market cap and a capped user base. Biggest upside is FRM 88.3, growth and margin accelerating together. Risks: leverage, app-store fee changes, platform competition.

  • MU, Micron Technology, OM Score 104.1. FRM 98.6, TRS 95.8, ROIC 57.3%, fwd revenue growth 167%, 5.42x fwd EBITDA, 0.66x sell-side target. DRAM and NAND maker, now the main HBM beneficiary; market still applies a trough cyclical multiple. Bull: HBM sold out and pricing holds, making 5.4x absurd. Bear: memory always cycles and consensus is extrapolating a peak. Biggest upside is FRM 98.6, top of the universe. Risks: beta 3.00, RAVG only 42.2.

  • DAVE, Dave Inc., OM Score 89.0. FRM 94.3, TRS 94.1, RAVG 88.7, EQS 92.7, ROIC 57.9%, fwd revenue growth 48.6%, short interest 19.1%. Neobank offering small cash advances to underbanked consumers; nearly a fifth of the float is short. Bull: unit economics inflected, 58% ROIC, 5/5 on top-1% traits. Bear: late-cycle consumer credit and shifting CFPB posture. Biggest upside is FRM 94.3 with RAVG 88.7, fundamentals and estimates both accelerating. Risks: squeeze volatility, regulation of fee-based advances, subprime credit losses.

  • WDC, Western Digital, OM Score 88.7. RAVG 94.6, EQS 92.3, FRM 91.9, ROIC 90.4%, fwd revenue growth 35.7%, 16.9x fwd EBITDA, 0.70x sell-side target. HDD maker repositioned as the nearline storage supplier for AI data centers; market still prices it as legacy hardware. Bull: tight HDD supply, 90% ROIC, estimates rising at the 95th percentile. Bear: 16.9x is no longer cheap and NAND substitution looms. Biggest upside is RAVG 94.6. Risks: beta 2.42, TRS only 52.4 so momentum stalled, hyperscaler capex digestion.

  • HLNE, Hamilton Lane, OM Score 93.7. RAVG 97.0, EQS 84.7, OLI 77.9, fwd revenue growth 24.0%, 12.0x fwd EBITDA, 0.77x sell-side target. Private-markets asset manager earning fees on committed capital; market sees a quality but fully-valued compounder. Bull: 97th-percentile revisions, 24% growth, fees contracted years forward. Bear: fundraising slows and incentive fees prove cyclical. Biggest upside is RAVG 97.0, the highest revision score in the book. Risks: ROIC only 7.7%, a private-markets marks reset, fee compression.

  • HCI, HCI Group, OM Score 127.4. EQS 95.2, CAS 86.5, TRS 74.8, ROIC 27.7%, net cash 34.5% of market cap, 3.45x fwd EV/EBITDA, 0.80x OM target. Florida homeowners insurer that also owns TypTap plus a real-estate segment; same market aversion as Slide. Bull: 95th-percentile earnings quality with a third of market cap in cash at 3.5x EBITDA. Bear: hurricane exposure and reserve adequacy. Biggest upside is the balance sheet, net cash at 34.5% of market cap. Risks: cat concentration, no revision data.

  • TNK, Teekay Tankers, OM Score 80.7. CAS 96.8, RAVG 96.3, TRS 88.9, ROIC 25.9%, net cash 36.3% of market cap, fwd FCF/EV 31.9%, 4.78x EBITDA, beta 0.35. Mid-size crude and product tanker fleet on spot charters; market refuses to capitalize peak cyclical cash flows. Bull: 31.9% forward cash yield, 36% of cap in net cash, 97th-percentile capital allocation. Bear: spot rates are at cycle highs. Biggest upside is CAS 96.8 with the 31.9% FCF/EV, the highest cash yield here. Risks: rate cyclicality, trade-route normalization, already at 0.99x sell-side target.

  • NVDA, NVIDIA, OM Score 78.0. FRM 96.4, EQS 91.7, RAVG 90.8, ROIC 98.3%, fwd revenue growth 83.4%, fwd FCF margin 86.2%, 15.6x fwd EBITDA, 0.70x sell-side target. Designs the GPU and networking stack behind nearly all AI compute; debate is durability, not quality. Bull: 98% ROIC and 86% FCF margin at 15.6x. Bear: customer concentration among hyperscalers building their own silicon. Biggest upside is ROIC 98.3%, essentially the top of the universe. Risks: hyperscaler capex is a single point of failure, custom ASIC substitution, export controls.

  • SNDK, Sandisk, OM Score 88.6. FRM 99.0, EQS 95.6, TRS 94.9, Trifecta 0.999, ROIC 84.0%, fwd revenue growth 175%, 6.31x fwd EBITDA. NAND flash business spun out of Western Digital; not yet re-rated as a standalone AI-storage name. Bull: highest Trifecta in the book, 175% growth, 84% ROIC at 6.3x. Bear: NAND is brutally cyclical and spin-off financials are hard to trust. Biggest upside is FRM 99.0, the top of the universe. Risks: beta 3.87 is the highest here, RAVG only 36.1.

  • SM, SM Energy, OM Score 95.6. FRM 92.2, RAVG 92.1, TRS 86.9, ROIC 7.3%, net debt 78.6% of market cap, fwd revenue growth 65.3%, 3.06x fwd EBITDA. Permian and Eagle Ford producer; market prices it as a levered, low-return E&P. Bull: 3.1x EBITDA, 65% growth, 92nd-percentile revisions. Bear: leverage makes it a call option on the oil strip. Biggest upside is the 3.06x multiple against 92nd-percentile revisions, the widest valuation-to-momentum gap in the book. Risks: highest leverage here, CAS 41.3 fails the ≥50 gate, unhedged commodity exposure.

  • EVER, EverQuote, OM Score 101.6. CAS 96.6, TRS 89.6, EQS 84.7, ROIC 53.0%, net cash 21.7% of market cap, fwd FCF/EV 14.1%, 0.82x fwd sales, short interest 17.5%. Online insurance marketplace matching consumers with carriers; market sees a carrier-ad-spend proxy. Bull: 53% ROIC and net cash at 0.82x sales while carriers spend heavily. Bear: ad budgets vanish when loss ratios turn. Biggest upside is CAS 96.6 with a real net-cash balance sheet. Risks: 17.5% short interest, total dependence on auto-insurance marketing cycles, OLI 18.6.

  • ADSK, Autodesk, OM Score 96.6. EQS 88.2, RAVG 85.8, OLI 83.1, TRS 22.2, ROIC 26.2%, trailing FCF margin 40.5%, 12.3x fwd EBITDA, 0.69x sell-side target. Subscription design software for architecture, construction, and manufacturing; seen as mature and slow-growing with an activist overhang. Bull: 40% FCF margin and entrenched workflows at 12.3x with estimates rising. Bear: 17.9% growth decelerating and AI-native design tools are a real threat. Biggest upside is the 0.69x sell-side target with 85.8 revisions. Risks: TRS 22.2 is deeply out of favor, end-market cyclicality, generative-design displacement.

  • KYIV, Kyivstar Group, OM Score 105.0. FRM 85.8, RAVG 81.6, EQS 73.3, ROIC 9.0%, fwd revenue growth 23.4%, fwd FCF/EV 9.7%, 4.47x fwd EBITDA. Ukraine's largest mobile and digital services operator, recently US-listed; carries a severe war-risk discount. Bull: national telecom monopoly growing 23% at 4.5x, with ceasefire or reconstruction as a re-rating catalyst. Bear: the discount is justified by an active war. Biggest upside is the 4.47x multiple against 23.4% growth, a geopolitical rather than operational gap. Risks: infrastructure destruction, capital-repatriation limits, essentially no usable analyst coverage.

  • IMPP, Imperial Petroleum, OM Score 151.2, the highest in the book. CAS 93.7, EQS 75.5, ROIC 13.1%, net cash 88.8% of market cap, 0.19x fwd EV/EBITDA, market cap $239M. Micro-cap Greek owner of product tankers and drybulk vessels on spot charters; the market ignores it. Bull: net cash equals 89% of market cap, so the operating fleet is effectively free. Bear: the controlling shareholder has repeatedly issued equity. Biggest upside is the balance sheet, the deepest value setup in the list. Risks: dilution and governance history, severe liquidity constraints, no revision data.

  • SMCI, Super Micro Computer, OM Score 94.1, 3/5 signature, the weakest here. RAVG 99.5, TRS 91.5, EQS 53.9, Trifecta 0.740, fwd revenue growth 77.8%, fwd FCF/EV -3.9%, 0.48x fwd sales, short interest 13.9%. Builds AI server racks and liquid cooling; market stays skeptical after the accounting and auditor issues. Bull: 77.8% growth at 0.48x sales with the top revision score in the book. Bear: 53.9 earnings quality and 0.740 Trifecta are the weakest here for a reason. Biggest upside is RAVG 99.5. Risks: negative forward FCF, governance credibility, beta 2.98.

  • EOG, EOG Resources, OM Score 99.2. RAVG 88.9, FRM 77.0, EQS 76.4, ROIC 12.7%, fwd FCF/EV 9.7%, 4.91x fwd EBITDA, 0.91x sell-side target. Large-cap Permian and Eagle Ford producer with best-in-class well economics; the quality name in a disliked sector. Bull: disciplined capital returns, 9.7% forward cash yield, 89th-percentile revisions under 5x. Bear: still a price-taker with no pricing power. Biggest upside is RAVG 88.9 with the multiple staying compressed. Risks: unhedged oil exposure, only 9% upside to consensus target, long-run shale inventory depletion.

  • QNST, QuinStreet, OM Score 95.9. TRS 93.7, RAVG 92.9, CAS 85.9, ROIC 24.8%, fwd FCF/EV 12.5%, 0.68x fwd sales, market cap $1.07B. Performance-marketing marketplaces in insurance, financial services, and home services; seen as a bet on carrier ad budgets. Bull: 0.68x sales and 12.5% cash yield with 93rd-percentile momentum and rising estimates. Bear: customer concentration and zero advertiser switching costs. Biggest upside is TRS 93.7 paired with RAVG 92.9, price and estimates moving together. Risks: single demand driver, OLI 17.0, beta 1.96 on a $1B cap.

  • FRO, Frontline, OM Score 76.9. RAVG 96.7, FRM 94.2, TRS 89.5, ROIC 13.7%, fwd revenue growth 48.8%, fwd FCF margin 59.3%, 6.09x fwd EBITDA, net debt 20.6% of market cap. Operates one of the largest VLCC and Suezmax crude fleets; market treats current rates as unsustainable. Bull: 48.8% growth and a 59% cash margin at 6.1x with 97th-percentile revisions. Bear: already at 0.98x sell-side target with the cycle near peak. Biggest upside is FRM 94.2. Risks: rate mean-reversion, leverage in a cyclical.

  • HRB, H&R Block, OM Score 93.0. TRS 93.0, RAVG 89.9, EQS 80.2, FRM 34.2, ROIC 24.1%, 6.41x fwd EBITDA, net debt 18.9% of market cap, short interest 14.5%. Assisted and DIY tax preparation across a large retail footprint; viewed as a melting ice cube. Bull: 24% ROIC, heavy buybacks, 6.4x for an annuity-like revenue stream. Bear: 4.9% forward growth and FRM 34.2 confirm the decline thesis. Biggest upside is TRS 93.0 with RAVG 89.9, price and estimates improving against the narrative. Risks: weakest FRM in the book, 14.5% short interest, long-run disintermediation.

  • FIVE, Five Below, OM Score 84.3. RAVG 94.0, TRS 80.4, FRM 79.4, ROIC 14.7%, fwd revenue growth 25.6%, 15.47x fwd EBITDA. Discount specialty retailer for teens with most items under $5; market remains unsure on mature-store unit economics. Bull: 25.6% growth from new stores with 94th-percentile revisions. Bear: 15.5x is the third-highest multiple here and offers no cushion. Biggest upside is RAVG 94.0, with the estimate cycle inflecting after a period of cuts. Risks: low-income discretionary spending, tariff and freight pass-through, richest valuation among the non-mega-caps.

  • INSW, International Seaways, OM Score 88.6. TRS 91.1, CAS 76.4, FRM 73.6, ROIC 16.2%, fwd revenue growth 57.9%, 7.52x fwd EBITDA, beta 0.50, 1.01x sell-side target. Diversified crude and product tanker fleet with a stated capital-return policy; same market aversion as the other tankers. Bull: 57.9% growth and 91st-percentile momentum at a beta of just 0.50. Bear: at 1.01x consensus target there is no modeled upside left. Biggest upside is 57.9% growth against 7.5x, the widest gap among the shipping names. Risks: third tanker in the book so the cycle is concentrated, RAVG 62.0 is weakest of the three.

  • ADBE, Adobe, OM Score 83.6. EQS 93.7, CAS 83.6, OLI 81.1, ROIC 39.5%, trailing FCF margin 36.6%, fwd FCF/EV 10.0%, 8.19x fwd EBITDA, 0.96x sell-side target. Subscription creative, document, and marketing software; de-rated on the belief AI commoditizes creative tooling. Bull: 39.5% ROIC and 36.6% FCF margin at 8.2x with real switching costs. Bear: 11.5% growth is the slowest here and the AI thesis is unfalsifiable near-term. Biggest upside is EQS 93.7 at 8.2x, the cheapest large-cap quality setup in the list. Risks: generative-AI competition, decelerating growth, little consensus upside.

  • RELY, Remitly Global, OM Score 80.1. CAS 93.0, TRS 90.2, RAVG 85.5, FRM 85.2, ROIC 31.1%, net cash 11.5% of market cap, fwd revenue growth 23.8%, 10.8x fwd EBITDA. Digital cross-border remittance platform for migrant workers; framed as a low-margin business fighting Wise and incumbents. Bull: 31% ROIC and 23.8% growth with net cash at under 11x. Bear: remittance pricing is a race to zero. Biggest upside is CAS 93.0, real capital efficiency in a business assumed to have none. Risks: immigration policy hitting corridor volumes, take-rate compression, beta 2.15 with OLI 30.8.

  • STRL, Sterling Infrastructure, OM Score 119.6. FRM 91.1, RAVG 92.9, CAS 85.5, TRS 6.6, ROIC 28.9%, fwd revenue growth 60.8%, 14.60x fwd EBITDA, 0.51x sell-side target, the widest consensus upside here. Builds data center foundations, highways, and water infrastructure in the southern US; recently punished despite the backlog. Bull: 60.8% growth and 28.9% ROIC at half the sell-side target with estimates still rising. Bear: 14.6x assumes the data-center cycle runs indefinitely. Biggest upside is the 0.51x target gap with 92.9 revisions. Risks: TRS 6.6 means fighting the tape, hyperscaler capex concentration, fixed-price contract execution.

Exec Sum

Exec Sum

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Top 25 Worst Stocks In The Market Now

  • NVTS, Navitas Semiconductor, OM Score -219.8, Strict Pass. MCR 99.1, VSR 96.6, ROIC -52.1%, fwd revenue growth -46.4%, 41.1x fwd sales, short interest 15.4%, beta 4.69, 1.74x OM target. GaN and SiC power semis for chargers, data centers, and EVs; bid up as an NVIDIA-adjacent 800V play. Bear: revenue contracting 46% at 41x sales with a -141% forward FCF margin. Bull: the NVIDIA design win is real and revenue inflects. Biggest downside is MCR 99.1, top of the universe. Risks: beta 4.69, 15.4% short interest on a low float, any confirmed hyperscaler win.

  • SMR, NuScale Power, OM Score -151.4. MCR 99.3, VSR 96.8, EQS 3.2, FRM 0.3, Trifecta 0.001, ROIC -33.0%, fwd revenue growth -81.0%, 48.0x fwd sales, net cash 26.8% of market cap, short interest 16.5%, beta 4.14. Small modular reactor developer with the only NRC-certified design; the purest listed AI-power-demand proxy. Bear: 3rd-percentile earnings quality and a first reactor years out. Bull: one utility or hyperscaler order transforms the backlog. Biggest downside is MCR 99.3, the highest in the book. Risks: squeeze on 16.5% short interest, a long cash runway, policy headlines.

  • SPCE, Virgin Galactic, OM Score -129.8, 5/5 signature. VSR 98.5, MCR 91.7, EQS 1.8, FRM 0.7, Trifecta 0.001, ROIC -35.2%, fwd revenue growth -38.9%, fwd FCF/EV -51.9%, short interest 25.7%, beta 3.71, market cap $461M. Suborbital space tourism, currently between vehicle generations. Bear: 2nd-percentile earnings quality, revenue down 39%, a -52% cash yield on EV. Bull: the Delta-class ship enters service and cadence scales. Biggest downside is VSR 98.5, an extremely unstable price base. Risks: 25.7% short interest, beta 3.71 on a small cap, retail-driven melt-ups.

  • AEHR, Aehr Test Systems, OM Score -173.2, Strict Pass, 2/5 signature. MCR 97.9, VSR 95.5, EQS 41.1, Trifecta 0.444, fwd revenue growth -15.2%, 111.9x fwd EBITDA, short interest 13.3%, beta 4.76, 1.51x OM target. Wafer-level burn-in and test systems pivoting from silicon carbide toward AI processor test. Bear: 112x EBITDA on revenue declining 15%. Bull: AI packaging test orders inflect the small base. Biggest downside is MCR 97.9 against 112x, leaving no room for slippage. Risks: beta 4.76 is the highest here, one large order changes the optics, Trifecta 0.444 is above the signature threshold.

  • DFDV, DeFi Development Corp., OM Score -81.8, 5/5 signature. BDR 97.1, VSR 95.4, EQS 0.9, CAS 8.4, ROIC -189.8%, net debt 62.8% of market cap, 18.8x fwd sales, short interest 16.1%, beta 3.07, market cap $182M. Former real-estate software company converted into a Solana treasury vehicle. Bear: 1st-percentile earnings quality, -190% ROIC, heavy net debt. Bull: Solana rallies and the treasury mark expands. Biggest downside is BDR 97.1, price furthest detached from any fundamental anchor. Risks: direct crypto beta, thin borrow on $182M, accretive-looking token purchase announcements.

  • ASST, Strive Inc., OM Score -167.6, Strict Pass. VSR 98.0, BDR 86.0, EQS 29.4, ROIC -141.5%, 257.7x fwd sales, fwd revenue growth 71.6%, short interest 21.3%, beta 3.86, 1.48x OM target. Anti-ESG asset manager with a bitcoin treasury attached. Bear: 258x sales and -142% ROIC. Bull: AUM gathering accelerates and bitcoin appreciates. Biggest downside is VSR 98.0 with the 257.7x multiple, the most extreme valuation-plus-instability pairing here. Risks: 21.3% short interest with beta 3.86, direct bitcoin sensitivity, a Health Care sector tag that is a shell-merger artifact and can distort sector-neutral sizing.

  • AI, C3.ai, OM Score -172.3. VSR 95.1, MCR 83.6, FRM 1.7, EQS 33.2, ROIC -55.5%, fwd revenue growth -37.5%, net cash 36.7% of market cap, short interest 31.0%, the highest in the book, 1.19x sell-side target. Enterprise AI application software shifting to consumption pricing after repeated guidance resets. Bear: revenue down 37.5% with 2nd-percentile forward momentum, still above consensus target. Bull: 37% of cap in net cash and a federal contract base. Biggest downside is FRM 1.7, the bottom of the universe. Risks: crowded borrow, a hard cash floor, AI sentiment waves.

  • MSTR, Strategy Inc., OM Score -109.3, Strict Pass, 5/5 signature. MCR 90.9, VSR 86.2, EQS 17.1, Trifecta 0.065, ROIC -56.7%, 1922x fwd EBITDA, 143x fwd sales, short interest 8.3%, beta 2.74, market cap $54.9B. Legacy BI software company turned largest corporate bitcoin holder, funded by converts and equity. Bear: 0.065 Trifecta and almost no operating cash beneath a 1922x multiple. Bull: bitcoin rises and the mNAV issuance flywheel compounds coins per share. Biggest downside is MCR 90.9 against the mNAV premium. Risks: direct bitcoin beta, accretive dilution, index inclusion decisions.

  • KEEL, Keel Infrastructure, OM Score -81.4, 5/5 signature. VSR 97.4, MCR 85.5, EQS 5.6, CAS 28.9, Trifecta 0.002, ROIC -41.2%, 28.9x fwd sales, fwd FCF/EV -11.8%, short interest 18.8%, beta 3.77, 0.54x sell-side target. Data-center and digital-infrastructure developer priced on future capacity contracts. Bear: 6th-percentile earnings quality and 28.9x sales while burning cash. Bull: signed hyperscaler leases convert the pipeline. Biggest downside is VSR 97.4. Risks: 18.8% short interest with beta 3.77, analysts see nearly double the price, one lease announcement re-rates the pipeline.

  • OKLO, Oklo Inc., OM Score -66.3. MCR 94.8, VSR 95.6, EQS 8.8, FRM 11.2, Trifecta 0.030, ROIC -7.7%, 1020x fwd sales, net cash 32.1% of market cap, short interest 14.0%, beta 4.12, 0.51x sell-side target. Compact fast-reactor developer aiming to sell power directly to data centers. Bear: 1020x sales on pre-revenue operations. Bull: NRC licensing progresses and the first Aurora unit deploys. Biggest downside is MCR 94.8 against the second-most extreme revenue multiple in the book. Risks: beta 4.12, a large cash runway, consensus at double the current price.

  • SLDP, Solid Power, OM Score -93.0. MCR 99.4, VSR 80.9, FRM 0.5, Trifecta 0.004, ROIC -20.2%, fwd revenue growth -64.3%, 57.3x fwd sales, net cash 40.9% of market cap, beta 1.25, 0.37x sell-side target. Solid-state battery cell and electrolyte developer working with BMW and Ford. Bear: revenue down 64% at 57x sales with commercialization undefined. Bull: a partner converts development work into a production contract. Biggest downside is MCR 99.4, tied for highest here. Risks: the largest cash cushion in the book, 0.37x sell-side target, beta 1.25 means it won't fall in a high-beta unwind.

  • HUT, Hut 8 Corp., OM Score -145.8, Strict Pass, 5/5 signature. MCR 80.1, VSR 92.4, EQS 7.3, CAS 17.9, ROIC -10.7%, net debt 64.5% of market cap, 213x fwd EBITDA, fwd FCF/EV -13.4%, beta 3.29, 1.39x OM target. Bitcoin miner converting sites to AI and HPC hosting. Bear: 7th-percentile earnings quality and heavy net debt at 213x EBITDA. Bull: megawatt capacity gets contracted to AI tenants at far better margins. Biggest downside is the leverage-plus-quality combination, the weakest in the book. Risks: bitcoin exposure, hosting contract announcements, beta 3.29.

  • CIFR, Cipher Digital, OM Score -84.4, 5/5 signature. VSR 93.7, MCR 82.6, EQS 4.5, CAS 15.2, Trifecta 0.003, ROIC -31.5%, net debt 64.6% of market cap, 38.2x fwd EBITDA, fwd FCF/EV -22.4%, short interest 15.8%, 0.55x sell-side target. Bitcoin miner building HPC capacity in Texas. Bear: 5th-percentile earnings quality with 65% net debt while burning 22% of EV annually. Bull: Texas power access and signed AI contracts justify the build. Biggest downside is CAS 15.2, bottom-15% capital allocation on a levered balance sheet. Risks: bitcoin beta, large consensus upside, contract announcements moving the stock 30%+ in a session.

  • WULF, TeraWulf, OM Score -130.7, 5/5 signature. VSR 94.3, MCR 84.7, EQS 2.5, CAS 15.3, ROIC -64.3%, net debt 31.8% of market cap, 39.3x fwd EBITDA, fwd FCF/EV -31.0%, short interest 21.5%, 0.45x sell-side target. Mines bitcoin on nuclear and hydro power, converting sites to AI hosting with a named anchor tenant. Bear: 3rd-percentile earnings quality and a -31% cash yield on EV. Bull: contracted hosting revenue arrives and proves stickier than mining. Biggest downside is EQS 2.5. Risks: 21.5% short interest, consensus more than double the price, a real announced AI tenant.

  • CDZI, Cadiz Inc., OM Score -155.0, 5/5 signature. MCR 98.5, EQS 2.2, FRM 1.8, CAS 16.1, Trifecta 0.000, the lowest in the book, ROIC -33.7%, fwd revenue growth -21.3%, 36.8x fwd sales, net debt 32.5% of market cap, beta 1.26, market cap $353M. Owns Mojave groundwater rights and is trying to build a conveyance pipeline. Bear: no operating asset, declining revenue, a project pending over 20 years. Bull: one regulatory approval or utility offtake. Biggest downside is MCR 98.5 at 36.8x sales. Risks: binary regulatory catalysts, limited borrow, beta 1.26.

  • PLSE, Pulse Biosciences, OM Score -178.4, Strict Pass. BDR 98.8, MCR 94.8, VSR 48.9, the lowest in the book, EQS 30.7, ROIC -73.1%, 910x fwd sales, short interest 3.9%, beta 0.68, 1.18x sell-side target. Pre-commercial developer of nanosecond pulsed-field ablation devices backed by a deep-pocketed anchor investor. Bear: 910x sales, -73% ROIC, above both target anchors. Bull: FDA clearance in cardiac turns the platform into real revenue. Biggest downside is BDR 98.8. Risks: binary FDA and trial catalysts, a shareholder who keeps funding it, and low short interest with beta 0.68 so it won't fall with the rest of the book.

  • RIOT, Riot Platforms, OM Score -65.2, 5/5 signature. VSR 92.3, MCR 81.0, EQS 11.4, Trifecta 0.137, ROIC -36.6%, 92.0x fwd EBITDA, fwd FCF/EV -18.0%, fwd revenue growth 24.5%, short interest 13.3%, beta 2.60, 0.67x sell-side target. One of the largest listed bitcoin miners, converting Texas capacity to AI and HPC. Bear: 11th-percentile earnings quality at 92x EBITDA with an -18% cash yield. Bull: the power portfolio is genuinely scarce and gets contracted at data-center economics. Biggest downside is MCR 81.0 at 92x, a multiple assuming the conversion is done. Risks: bitcoin correlation, contract announcements, beta 2.60.

  • CLSK, CleanSpark, OM Score -61.2, the least negative in the book, 5/5 signature. VSR 97.3, MCR 85.0, EQS 20.7, CAS 12.0, the lowest here, ROIC -37.5%, net debt 48.6% of market cap, 36.5x fwd EBITDA, fwd revenue growth 7.5%, short interest 28.7%, 0.53x sell-side target. Bitcoin miner across a US site portfolio starting to pursue HPC hosting. Bear: worst capital allocation in the book, heavy net debt, weakest growth in the miner group. Bull: bitcoin appreciation plus a hosting pivot. Biggest downside is CAS 12.0. Risks: 28.7% short interest, the thinnest model conviction of the 25, large consensus upside.

  • SDGR, Schrödinger, OM Score -74.4. VSR 91.9, BDR 83.0, MCR 72.4, EQS 12.5, Trifecta 0.030, ROIC -12.2%, fwd revenue growth 8.9%, 5.05x fwd sales, net cash 20.3% of market cap, short interest 15.3%, 0.94x sell-side target. Physics-based molecular simulation software plus an internal drug pipeline. Bear: 13th-percentile earnings quality, 8.9% growth, a -12% cash yield on EV. Bull: AI drug-discovery interest re-rates the software and a pipeline asset succeeds. Biggest downside is BDR 83.0, price stretched while growth decelerated to single digits. Risks: binary clinical readouts, a net-cash floor, AI-for-biology sentiment cycles.

  • HTFL, HeartFlow, OM Score -108.2. BDR 89.5, VSR 80.9, MCR 71.9, EQS 32.4, FRM 59.1, ROIC -61.4%, fwd revenue growth 42.8%, 14.7x fwd sales, short interest 7.8%, 1.09x sell-side target. AI-based coronary CT analysis used to assess blockages non-invasively; a recent IPO in a growing category. Bear: -61% ROIC and trading above consensus target at 14.7x sales. Bull: 42.8% growth with expanding reimbursement defends the multiple. Biggest downside is BDR 89.5, past both target anchors. Risks: the strongest fundamentals in this book, low 7.8% short interest so the bear case isn't consensus, reimbursement expansion as a live catalyst.

  • BLSH, Bullish, OM Score -99.7. BDR 91.9, MCR 78.3, FRM 94.5, the highest forward momentum in the book, EQS 25.0, ROIC -44.7%, fwd revenue growth 80.5%, 39.2x fwd EBITDA, short interest 5.5%, 0.92x sell-side target. Institutional digital-asset exchange that also owns CoinDesk. Bear: -45% ROIC and 25th-percentile earnings quality at 39x EBITDA. Bull: 80.5% growth and FRM 94.5 mean fundamentals are inflecting, which is rare in this book. Biggest downside is BDR 91.9. Risks: FRM 94.5 directly contradicts the thesis and is the best reason to skip it, crypto volume leverage, only 5.5% confirming short positioning.

  • ASTS, AST SpaceMobile, OM Score -87.4. VSR 93.2, BDR 75.8, MCR 70.9, EQS 21.4, ROIC -17.5%, 56.8x fwd sales, fwd FCF/EV -8.5%, short interest 19.2%, market cap $18.7B, 0.76x sell-side target. Building a satellite constellation for direct-to-cellphone broadband with major carriers. Bear: $18.7B cap on 57x sales with essentially no revenue. Bull: AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone agreements convert once enough satellites are up. Biggest downside is VSR 93.2, extreme instability around a valuation resting entirely on execution. Risks: 19.2% short interest, launches are visible re-rating catalysts, unreliable growth inputs.

  • QBTS, D-Wave Quantum, OM Score -93.2. MCR 99.4, tied for highest, VSR 97.8, BDR only 39.8, FRM 0.8, Trifecta 0.308, ROIC -26.7%, fwd revenue growth -44.2%, 87.2x fwd sales, short interest 18.0%, beta 4.74, 0.46x sell-side target. Quantum annealing systems and quantum cloud access, one of few listed pure-plays. Bear: revenue down 44% with 1st-percentile forward momentum at 87x sales. Bull: quantum sentiment cycles are powerful and contracts grow off a tiny base. Biggest downside is MCR 99.4 on shrinking revenue. Risks: beta 4.74 with 18.0% short interest, BDR 39.8 means price isn't actually stretched versus targets, sector-wide melt-ups.

  • CHPT, ChargePoint Holdings, OM Score -504.2, by far the most negative in the universe, Strict Pass. BDR 99.9, the highest in the book, VSR 97.0, MCR only 35.3, CAS 9.5, ROIC -57.4%, net debt 58.3% of market cap, 0.93x fwd sales, short interest 21.4%, market cap $266M, 42.8x the OM target. EV charging networks plus hardware and software subscriptions, largely written off after years of dilution. Bear: the worst OM Score in the model, 10th-percentile capital allocation, heavy debt on a tiny cap. Bull: 0.93x sales is genuinely cheap on revenue. Biggest downside is BDR 99.9. Risks: expensive borrow and violent squeezes, MCR 35.3 makes the valuation leg weak, limited remaining dollar downside.

  • NNE, NANO Nuclear Energy, OM Score -80.1. VSR 99.0, the highest in the book, MCR 94.3, BDR only 42.7, EQS 35.6, FRM 14.7, CAS 64.7, Trifecta 0.029, ROIC -8.0%, 57.1x fwd sales, net cash 60.8% of market cap, short interest 27.2%, beta 4.18, 0.39x sell-side target. Portable microreactor designs plus nuclear fuel transportation assets, grouped with SMR and OKLO. Bear: 0.029 Trifecta and 57x sales on pre-revenue operations. Bull: the fuel-transport business has real assets and the cash pile funds years of work. Biggest downside is VSR 99.0. Risks: the largest cash floor in the book, the most squeeze-prone setup here, consensus at 2.5x the price.

Thank you for reading this week’s issue of The Oddsmaker. If you would like to view more content like this, or access the Oddsmaker Universe and find every stock tracked by the Oddsmaker all in one place, visit our website:

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- The Oddsmaker Team

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