Welcome to this week’s Oddsmaker Top 25 Best and Worst. First, a brief update on the recently weekly performance of the Oddsmaker Top 25 Best and Worst Picks:
Average weekly long/short spread of +9.3%, positive in 12 of 16 weeks. Three weeks were negative (8-31 at −4%, 9-7 at −3%, 9-14 at −2%) and one was flat (7-20 at 0.0%).
The long book was up in 12 of 16 weeks, in a range of −6% to +11%, averaging +3.6%. It fell in three straight weeks (9-7 −6%, 9-14 −4%, 9-21 −2%) and was flat on 8-31.
Longs outperformed SPY in 12 of 16 weeks, averaging +2.4% excess. They trailed SPY in four straight weeks from 8-31 through 9-21. The stated long hit rate is 54%.
Widest spread: 6-15 at +28% (longs +5%, shorts −24%), followed by 6-22 at +27% and 6-8 at +25%.
The spread has been positive again for the last two weeks, after three negative weeks in a row. On 9-21 the spread was +5% because shorts fell more (−7%) than longs (−2%). On 9-28 it was +2%, with longs up 3% and shorts flat.
Top 25 Best Stocks In The Market Now
1. MU, Micron Technology | OM Score 112.5 | SMP 233.7 | OM2 Long 92.9 | Near Pass | 5/5 signature. RAVG 99.4, FRM 99.0, EQS 92.5, CAS 90.6, TRS 94.6, Trifecta Ratio 0.997, ROIC 79.2%, fwd EV/EBITDA 4.6x, fwd FCF/EV 12.6%, 0.70x sell-side target, 31% above its 200-day average. Micron makes DRAM, NAND and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI servers, PCs and phones. The market sees it as a core AI-infrastructure winner in a memory upcycle. Bull: HBM demand and tight supply keep pricing and margins elevated. Bear: memory is cyclical, and peak margins invite new capacity. Biggest upside factor: RAVG at 99.4, near the top of the universe for estimate revisions. Long risks: a memory-pricing downturn, high volatility (beta 2.87), and data flags (margin>70%, fwd-rev) that may overstate forward numbers.
2. NEM, Newmont | OM Score 112.5 | SMP 214.9 | OM2 Long 87.1 | Near Pass | 5/5 signature. RAVG 90.8, FRM 86.8, EQS 84.5, CAS 84.6, Trifecta Ratio 0.981, ROIC 18.5%, fwd EV/EBITDA 6.7x, fwd FCF/EV 9.1%, forward EBITDA growth 55.9%, 0.83x OM target, 0.83x sell-side target. Newmont is the world's largest gold miner, with mines across the Americas, Australia and Africa. The market treats it as the large-cap way to own gold. Bull: high gold prices turn into record free cash flow and buybacks. Bear: cost inflation and mine-level execution misses. Biggest upside factor: RAVG at 90.8. Analysts keep raising estimates. Long risks: a fall in the gold price, operating cost overruns, and execution risk across a large, multi-country portfolio.
3. SLDE, Slide Insurance | OM Score 124.2 | SMP 262.7, highest in the book | OM2 Long 87.0 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. EQS 98.0, CAS 88.2, TRS 88.7, Trifecta Ratio 0.997, ROIC 51.8%, fwd EV/EBITDA 2.1x, net cash 43% of market cap, 0.82x OM target, 0.91x sell-side target. No revision data (RAVG shown at 50); TTM flag. Slide is a Florida-focused homeowners and condo insurer that grew by assuming Citizens policies and acquiring books. The market views it as a high-return insurtech. Bull: strong underwriting margins and excess capital compound book value. Bear: earnings depend on a quiet hurricane season. Biggest upside factor: EQS at 98.0. Long risks: a major Florida hurricane, higher reinsurance costs, and R4 boundary status: excluded last week, re-entered at 2.09x.
4. STNG, Scorpio Tankers | OM Score 106.7 | SMP 216.9 | OM2 Long 86.3 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. CAS 92.7, FRM 86.9, OLI 82.1, EQS 79.5, RAVG 57.1, Trifecta Ratio 0.984, ROIC 17.6%, fwd EV/EBITDA 5.7x, fwd FCF/EV 9.2%, net cash 28% of market cap, 0.84x OM target. Scorpio runs one of the largest product-tanker fleets, carrying refined fuels such as diesel and gasoline. The market prices it as a cyclical rate play. Bull: refinery dislocation and longer trade routes keep day rates high. Bear: newbuild deliveries and rate normalization compress earnings. Biggest upside factor: CAS at 92.7. The balance sheet has moved to net cash. Long risks: a drop in product-tanker rates, normalizing trade routes, and revisions just below the 60 gate (RAVG 57.1).
5. CMCL, Caledonia Mining | OM Score 136.6 | SMP 254.3 | OM2 Long 85.1 | Strict Pass, the only one in the universe | 5/5 signature. RAVG 93.2, CAS 85.0, EQS 74.9, Trifecta Ratio 0.964, ROIC 11.7%, fwd EV/EBITDA 2.8x, 0.53x sell-side target, 0.80x OM target, fwd FCF/EV −24.8%. Caledonia runs the Blanket gold mine in Zimbabwe and is developing the larger Bilboes project. The market discounts it heavily for jurisdiction risk. Bull: high gold prices fund Bilboes and lift production. Bear: Zimbabwe currency, royalty and policy risk cap the multiple. Biggest upside factor: it clears all four backtested gates. Long risks: Zimbabwe political and fiscal risk, negative forward free cash flow during the growth buildout, and small-cap volatility (beta 2.01).
6. EOG, EOG Resources | OM Score 103.6 | SMP 215.9 | OM2 Long 83.0 | Near Pass | 5/5 signature. RAVG 96.2, FRM 77.2, EQS 76.5, CAS 74.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.976, ROIC 12.7%, fwd EV/EBITDA 4.6x, fwd FCF/EV 10.2%, 0.84x OM target, 0.86x sell-side target. EOG is a large US oil and gas producer with positions in the Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford and Utica, run with low debt. The market sees it as a disciplined, low-cost operator. Bull: a 10% FCF yield funds dividends and buybacks. Bear: earnings move with crude prices it cannot control. Biggest upside factor: RAVG at 96.2. Long risks: lower oil and gas prices, slowing well productivity, and neutral momentum (TRS 59.3).
7. AU, AngloGold Ashanti | OM Score 95.6 | SMP 210.4 | OM2 Long 83.0 | Near Pass | 5/5 signature. FRM 93.1, EQS 90.8, CAS 81.3, RAVG 60.4, Trifecta Ratio 0.994, ROIC 10.9%, fwd EV/EBITDA 5.6x, fwd FCF/EV 8.3%, forward revenue growth 54.6%, 0.79x sell-side target. Margin>70% flag. AngloGold mines gold across Africa, Australia and the Americas, with a growth district in Nevada. The market rewards its turnaround and cost focus. Bull: higher gold and better execution expand margins and payouts. Bear: African jurisdiction risk and mine-level problems. Biggest upside factor: FRM at 93.1. Long risks: a fall in the gold price, operating or jurisdiction setbacks, and revisions barely above the 60 gate.
8. HCI, HCI Group | OM Score 128.8 | SMP 247.5 | OM2 Long 82.6 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. EQS 95.3, CAS 86.4, TRS 77.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.975, ROIC 27.7%, fwd EV/EBITDA 3.4x, net cash 35% of market cap, 0.76x sell-side target. No revision data (RAVG shown at 50); TTM flag. HCI is a Florida homeowners insurer (Homeowners Choice, TypTap) that also holds a majority stake in insurance-software spinoff Exzeo. The market views it as a well-run Florida insurer with a tech kicker. Bull: underwriting profits plus the Exzeo stake drive book value. Bear: one major storm can erase a year of earnings. Biggest upside factor: EQS at 95.3. Long risks: Florida hurricane exposure, reinsurance pricing, and a Score that slipped from 132.5 to 128.8 this week.
9. MGY, Magnolia Oil & Gas | OM Score 117.1 | SMP 239.3 | OM2 Long 81.2 | Near Pass | 5/5 signature. RAVG 95.6, EQS 80.2, CAS 76.7, OLI 76.4, Trifecta Ratio 0.985, ROIC 12.4%, fwd EV/EBITDA 3.2x, fwd FCF/EV 16.0%, 0.73x sell-side target, TRS 22.2. Margin>70% flag. Magnolia is a South Texas oil and gas producer focused on the Eagle Ford and Giddings field, with a policy of spending within cash flow. The market treats it as a steady, low-growth cash-return story. Bull: a 16% FCF yield supports buybacks and dividend growth. Bear: modest growth and full commodity exposure. Biggest upside factor: fwd FCF/EV at 16.0%, second-highest in the book. Long risks: lower oil prices, weak momentum, 12.5% below its 200-day, and 10.6% short interest.
10. ADBE, Adobe | OM Score 98.6 | SMP 202.4 | OM2 Long 80.8 | Near Pass | 5/5 signature. EQS 93.4, RAVG 87.8, CAS 83.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.982, ROIC 39.4%, fwd EV/EBITDA 6.9x, fwd FCF/EV 11.8%, forward FCF margin 42.4%, 0.86x sell-side target. Adobe sells Creative Cloud, Document Cloud (Acrobat) and Experience Cloud software. The market worries that generative AI tools will erode its creative franchise, and prices it at a value multiple. Bull: Firefly and AI features monetize through existing subscriptions while buybacks shrink the share count. Bear: AI-native competitors cut seat growth and pricing power. Biggest upside factor: EQS at 93.4, paired with an 11.8% FCF yield. Long risks: AI disruption of creative workflows, 12% forward revenue growth, and SMP of 202.4, just above the 200 gate.
11. KYIV, Kyivstar Group | OM Score 110.0 | SMP 213.1 | OM2 Long 80.6 | Near Pass | 5/5 signature. RAVG 88.6, FRM 85.7, EQS 73.5, CAS 73.7, Trifecta Ratio 0.923, ROIC 9.0%, fwd EV/EBITDA 4.0x, fwd FCF/EV 11.0%, forward revenue growth 23.4%, 0.83x OM target. The 0.015x sell-side target reading looks like a currency mismatch; ignore it. Kyivstar is Ukraine's largest mobile operator, controlled by VEON and listed on Nasdaq. The market prices it with a steep war discount. Bull: a ceasefire and reconstruction re-rate it toward peer multiples. Bear: war damage, hryvnia weakness and capital controls. Biggest upside factor: RAVG at 88.6. Long risks: escalation of the war, currency and capital-control limits on cash flow, and a thin US float.
12. SM, SM Energy | OM Score 103.9 | SMP 228.6 | OM2 Long 80.5 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. RAVG 94.3, FRM 92.5, TRS 81.8, CAS 41.7, Trifecta Ratio 0.985, ROIC 7.3%, fwd EV/EBITDA 2.9x, fwd FCF/EV 12.8%, forward revenue growth 65.3%, 0.84x OM target. SM Energy is a US oil and gas producer with assets in the Midland Basin, South Texas and the Uinta Basin. The market views it as a cheap, leveraged growth producer. Bull: production growth and strong revisions push free cash flow toward debt paydown. Bear: leverage amplifies any commodity downturn. Biggest upside factor: RAVG at 94.3. Long risks: net debt near 81% of market cap (CAS 41.7, its only signature miss), lower oil prices, and execution risk on newer acreage.
13. CF, CF Industries | OM Score 99.9 | SMP 200.9 | OM2 Long 80.3 | Near Pass | 5/5 signature. RAVG 89.2, FRM 80.5, EQS 77.2, CAS 73.6, Trifecta Ratio 0.968, ROIC 15.1%, fwd EV/EBITDA 6.4x, fwd FCF/EV 9.4%, 0.85x OM target, 0.90x sell-side target. CF is North America's largest nitrogen fertilizer producer (ammonia, urea, UAN), with a cost edge from cheap US natural gas, and is building low-carbon ammonia capacity. The market sees it as a high-quality cyclical. Bull: tight global nitrogen supply and low US gas costs sustain margins. Bear: nitrogen prices fall as new supply arrives. Biggest upside factor: RAVG at 89.2. Long risks: falling nitrogen prices, a spike in US natural gas costs, and SMP of 200.9, right at the gate.
14. SNDK, Sandisk | OM Score 90.8 | SMP 208.0 | OM2 Long 79.6 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. FRM 99.0, EQS 95.7, CAS 88.6, TRS 90.0, Trifecta Ratio 0.999, highest in the book, ROIC 84.0%, fwd EV/EBITDA 6.2x, fwd FCF/EV 12.2%, forward revenue growth 175%, 20% above its 200-day average. Margin>70% flag. Sandisk makes NAND flash memory and SSDs and was spun off from Western Digital in 2025. The market treats it as an AI storage winner in a NAND upcycle. Bull: enterprise SSD demand for AI keeps NAND supply tight. Bear: the cycle turns and margins fall back. Biggest upside factor: FRM at 99.0. Long risks: RAVG of only 16.8, the weakest revisions in the book, NAND cyclicality, and extreme volatility (beta 3.55).
15. AII, American Integrity Insurance | OM Score 123.5 | SMP 261.8 | OM2 Long 79.5 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. EQS 93.7, TRS 93.4, CAS 86.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.996, ROIC 19.3%, fwd EV/EBITDA 2.1x, fwd EV/Sales 0.54x, net cash 50% of market cap, 0.82x OM target. No revision data (RAVG shown at 50); TTM flag. American Integrity is a Florida homeowners insurer that went public in 2025. The market still treats it as an under-followed small cap. Bull: profitable growth from Citizens takeouts at a very low multiple. Bear: concentrated catastrophe exposure. Biggest upside factor: EQS at 93.7. Long risks: Florida hurricane exposure, a Score drop from 147.5 to 123.5 this week, and OLI of 9.8, lowest in the book: small and thinly held.
16. XZO, Exzeo Group | OM Score 127.0 | SMP 205.6 | OM2 Long 79.2 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. EQS 94.8, FRM 87.5, CAS 81.0, Trifecta Ratio 0.933, ROIC 48.3%, fwd EV/EBITDA 9.2x, fwd FCF/EV 11.4%, forward FCF margin 57.7%, 0.55x sell-side target. No revision data (RAVG shown at 50). Exzeo is an insurance software company spun out of HCI Group that provides underwriting, policy and claims platforms to property insurers. The market treats it as a newly listed, under-followed carve-out. Bull: wins with outside carriers turn it from a captive vendor into a scaled SaaS business. Bear: revenue still depends heavily on HCI. Biggest upside factor: EQS at 94.8 with a 48% ROIC. Long risks: customer concentration in HCI, weak momentum (TRS 35.7), and beta of 1.99.
17. YOU, Clear Secure | OM Score 109.9 | SMP 217.3 | OM2 Long 79.1 | Near Pass | 5/5 signature. CAS 92.8, RAVG 86.4, EQS 84.4, FRM 84.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.995, ROIC 31.4%, fwd EV/EBITDA 8.3x, fwd FCF/EV 13.4%, net cash 20% of market cap, 0.68x sell-side target. Clear runs biometric identity verification at airports, stadiums and online. The market has sold the stock to 19% below its 200-day average on competition and growth worries. Bull: subscription pricing, TSA PreCheck enrollment and digital identity partnerships drive cash flow. Bear: government ID technology makes the airport lane less necessary. Biggest upside factor: CAS at 92.8. Long risks: TSA or airport policy changes, 12.4% short interest, and weak momentum (TRS 12.6).
18. VFF, Village Farms | OM Score 128.3 | SMP 194.6 | OM2 Long 78.4 | Near Pass (on Score; SMP below 200) | 2/5 signature, weakest in the book. CAS 77.2, FRM 70.5, TRS 84.5, EQS 48.4, Trifecta Ratio 0.610, ROIC 6.5%, fwd EV/EBITDA 5.7x, forward EBITDA growth 290%, 0.49x sell-side target. No revision data (RAVG shown at 50). Village Farms is a greenhouse operator whose main business is now Canadian cannabis (Pure Sunfarms), with a licensed operation in the Netherlands. The market treats it as a speculative cannabis stock. Bull: export growth and Dutch adult-use sales lift profits. Bear: cannabis pricing pressure and regulatory delays. Biggest upside factor: Score of 128.3, above the 125 gate. Long risks: cannabis price deflation, SMP below the 200 gate, and a sub-$3 share price.
19. HRTG, Heritage Insurance | OM Score 132.8 | SMP 247.0 | OM2 Long 77.8 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. EQS 94.5, TRS 90.3, CAS 88.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.910, ROIC 37.2%, fwd EV/EBITDA 1.6x, net cash 51% of market cap, 0.81x OM target, FRM 38.2. No revision data (RAVG shown at 50); TTM flag. Heritage writes homeowners and commercial residential insurance in Florida, the Northeast, Hawaii and California. The market has re-rated it after an underwriting turnaround. Bull: adequate rates keep returns high on a cash-rich balance sheet. Bear: 1.5% forward revenue growth and catastrophe exposure across several coastal states. Biggest upside factor: EQS at 94.5. Long risks: hurricane and wildfire losses, flat growth (FRM 38.2), and R4 boundary: EV/MktCap 0.495 against the 0.5 limit.
20. HLNE, Hamilton Lane | OM Score 109.8 | SMP 202.0 | OM2 Long 77.7 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. EQS 84.8, FRM 83.1, CAS 73.8, OLI 69.7, Trifecta Ratio 0.989, ROIC 7.7%, fwd EV/EBITDA 10.0x, fwd FCF/EV 8.6%, forward revenue growth 24.0%, 0.67x sell-side target. Hamilton Lane is a private-markets asset manager running funds, separate accounts and evergreen vehicles for institutions and wealthy individuals. The market values it as a growth play on retail access to private equity. Bull: evergreen fund growth lifts fee-related earnings. Bear: slower fundraising and fewer exits weigh on performance fees. Biggest upside factor: FRM at 83.1. Long risks: a private-markets slowdown, weak revisions (RAVG 40.6), and 8.6% short interest.
21. CDE, Coeur Mining | OM Score 97.9 | SMP 201.9 | OM2 Long 77.5 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. FRM 97.5, CAS 78.3, EQS 66.1, RAVG 57.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.974, ROIC 11.6%, fwd EV/EBITDA 6.1x, fwd FCF/EV 12.5%, forward revenue growth 117%, forward FCF margin 70.0%, 0.74x sell-side target. Coeur is a US-based silver and gold producer with mines in the US, Mexico and Canada, expanded by its 2025 purchase of SilverCrest. The market treats it as a high-beta precious-metals growth story. Bull: Rochester and Las Chispas lift output into strong metal prices. Bear: execution slips and precious metals pull back. Biggest upside factor: FRM at 97.5. Long risks: silver and gold price declines, high volatility (beta 2.69), and revisions below the 60 gate (RAVG 57.5).
22. MCY, Mercury General | OM Score 89.8 | SMP 201.0 | OM2 Long 77.5 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. EQS 89.2, OLI 86.8, highest in the book, CAS 81.4, Trifecta Ratio 0.953, ROIC 27.3%, fwd EV/EBITDA 3.9x, fwd EV/Sales 0.76x, net cash 13% of market cap, 0.85x sell-side target. No revision data (RAVG shown at 50); TTM flag. Mercury is a California-focused auto and homeowners insurer. The market discounts it for wildfire exposure after the 2025 Los Angeles fires. Bull: rate increases restore underwriting margins and subrogation recoveries help. Bear: California's regulatory regime and fire risk limit returns. Biggest upside factor: EQS at 89.2. Long risks: another major California wildfire, regulatory limits on rate increases, and SMP of 201.0, right at the gate.
23. INTU, Intuit | OM Score 112.6 | SMP 205.9 | OM2 Long 77.3 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. EQS 86.6, OLI 79.9, CAS 77.4, FRM 74.8, Trifecta Ratio 0.956, ROIC 12.0%, fwd EV/EBITDA 7.3x, fwd FCF/EV 11.6%, forward FCF margin 41.2%, 0.69x sell-side target, 17% below its 200-day average. Intuit makes TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma and Mailchimp. The market worries that AI agents will commoditize tax and accounting software. Bull: Intuit's data and AI assistants deepen the QuickBooks platform, and the stock is cheap on cash flow. Bear: AI lowers switching costs and pressures pricing. Biggest upside factor: EQS at 86.6, plus an 11.6% FCF yield. Long risks: AI disruption, weak momentum (TRS 14.9), and middling revisions (RAVG 51.2).
24. MNTN, MNTN Inc. | OM Score 111.0 | SMP 219.3 | OM2 Long 77.1 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. CAS 95.4, highest in the book, EQS 84.6, FRM 85.7, Trifecta Ratio 0.952, ROIC 19.7%, fwd EV/EBITDA 4.3x, fwd FCF/EV 20.7%, highest in the book, net cash 32% of market cap, 0.55x sell-side target, OLI 15.9. No revision data (RAVG shown at 50). MNTN sells self-serve connected-TV advertising software that lets small and mid-size businesses buy TV ads measured like search ads. The market treats it as a small, overlooked 2025 IPO. Bull: CTV ad growth and operating leverage. Bear: competition from larger ad platforms. Biggest upside factor: a 20.7% FCF yield. Long risks: ad-spend cyclicality, competition from Amazon, Roku and The Trade Desk, and low OLI (15.9).
25. CARG, CarGurus | OM Score 106.7 | SMP 201.8 | OM2 Long 77.0 | Near Pass | 5/5 signature. EQS 92.6, CAS 82.3, RAVG 78.7, FRM 77.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.961, ROIC 32.6%, fwd EV/EBITDA 7.5x, fwd FCF/EV 10.6%, 0.72x sell-side target, 11% below its 200-day average. CarGurus runs an online car marketplace that sells listing subscriptions to dealers and uses pricing data to rate deals. The market views it as a cash-generative marketplace with slowing growth. Bull: dealer pricing power, data products and buybacks compound earnings. Bear: AI search and rival marketplaces divert car-shopping traffic. Biggest upside factor: EQS at 92.6. Long risks: dealer budget cuts in a softer auto market, weak momentum (TRS 25.1), and SMP of 201.8, just above the gate.
Top 25 Worst Stocks In The Market Now
1. NVTS, Navitas Semiconductor | OM Score −243.4 | SMP −378.9 | OM2 Short 96.7 | Strict Pass | 3/5 signature. MCR 99.0, VSR 96.4, BDR 88.1, FRM 1.3, EQS 34.6, Trifecta Ratio 0.177, ROIC −52.1%, fwd EV/Sales 43.7x, forward revenue growth −46.4%, 1.79x OM target, short interest 15.4%, beta 4.51. Navitas designs gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide power chips for chargers, EVs and AI data-center power supplies. The market prices it as an AI power-architecture winner. Bear: 44x sales on a shrinking top line, with the stock 79% above its OM target. Bull: AI data-center design wins ramp faster than expected. Biggest downside factor: MCR at 99.0, extreme valuation against falling revenue. Short risks: AI partnership headlines, a squeeze with 15.4% short interest and a 4.51 beta, and net cash of 17% of market cap that funds the wait.
2. AEHR, Aehr Test Systems | OM Score −184.6 | SMP −373.6 | OM2 Short 96.4 | Strict Pass | 2/5 signature. MCR 98.1, VSR 96.7, BDR 87.5, FRM 12.0, EQS 41.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.443, ROIC −3.9%, fwd EV/EBITDA 140x, fwd EV/Sales 24.9x, forward revenue growth −15.2%, 1.50x OM target, 23% above its 200-day average. Beta 4.74, highest in the book. Aehr makes wafer-level burn-in and test systems for silicon carbide and AI processors. The market treats it as an AI test-equipment play. Bear: 140x EBITDA on falling revenue and lumpy orders. Bull: AI processor burn-in orders scale into a new market. Biggest downside factor: MCR at 98.1. Short risks: large AI customer order announcements, a squeeze with 15.7% short interest, and positive momentum (23% above its 200-day).
3. PI, Impinj | OM Score −53.8 | SMP −218.0 | OM2 Short 93.4 | Near Pass | 2/5 signature. BDR 94.6, MCR 91.3, VSR 89.2, EQS 55.9, Trifecta Ratio 0.551, ROIC −5.5%, fwd EV/EBITDA 60.4x, fwd EV/Sales 13.8x, forward revenue growth 3.5%, 1.11x OM target, 1.05x sell-side target, 32% above its 200-day average. Impinj makes RAIN RFID chips and readers used to tag and track retail, logistics and healthcare items. The market values it as a secular RFID growth leader. Bear: 60x EBITDA for low-single-digit growth, trading above both targets. Bull: new endpoint chips and food and logistics adoption reaccelerate growth. Biggest downside factor: BDR at 94.6. The stock has outrun its targets. Short risks: a growth reacceleration, a real business moat (EQS 55.9), and weak core signals (OM Score only −53.8).
4. AI, C3.ai | OM Score −188.2 | SMP −246.1 | OM2 Short 93.2 | Near Pass | 3/5 signature. VSR 93.6, BDR 87.6, MCR 86.1, FRM 1.8, EQS 31.3, Trifecta Ratio 0.189, ROIC −55.3%, fwd EV/Sales 5.2x, forward revenue growth −37.5%, fwd FCF/EV −11.1%, 1.52x OM target, 1.33x sell-side target, short interest 26.4%. C3.ai sells enterprise AI application software to industry and government. The market sees a fallen AI name with shrinking sales and leadership turnover. Bear: revenue is falling sharply while losses continue. Bull: a sale of the company or large federal contracts. Biggest downside factor: FRM at 1.8. Revenue is contracting. Short risks: a takeover bid, a squeeze with 26.4% short interest, and net cash of 33% of market cap.
5. SDGR, Schrödinger | OM Score −165.9 | SMP −235.0 | OM2 Short 92.2 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. BDR 93.5, VSR 90.5, MCR 78.9, EQS 12.9, Trifecta Ratio 0.032, ROIC −12.2%, fwd EV/Sales 8.3x, fwd FCF/EV −7.5%, 1.43x OM target, 1.41x sell-side target, 85% above its 200-day average, short interest 14.9%. Schrödinger sells physics-based computational drug-discovery software and develops its own drug pipeline. The market has re-rated it sharply on AI-driven drug discovery enthusiasm. Bear: cash-burning, priced 41% above sell-side targets after an 85% run above its 200-day. Bull: pipeline milestones or partnership deals validate the platform. Biggest downside factor: BDR at 93.5. The price has run far past fundamentals. Short risks: clinical or partnership news, momentum that can keep running, and a squeeze with 14.9% short interest.
6. FCEL, FuelCell Energy | OM Score −108.8 | SMP −171.1 | OM2 Short 91.1 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. VSR 91.2, BDR 90.7, MCR 78.8, EQS 9.0, Trifecta Ratio 0.027, ROIC −18.1%, fwd EV/Sales 4.8x, fwd FCF/EV −12.4%, forward revenue growth 1.1%, 1.25x OM target. Short interest 31.1%, highest in the book. FuelCell makes carbonate fuel cell power plants and sells electricity from projects it owns. The market treats it as a data-center power option. Bear: decades of losses, flat revenue and repeated dilution. Bull: data-center demand for on-site power converts into large orders. Biggest downside factor: EQS at 9.0. Short risks: a crowded short (31.1% of float), data-center power contract announcements, and net cash of 33% of market cap.
7. ASST, Strive | OM Score −100.2 | SMP −240.2 | OM2 Short 90.9 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. VSR 97.8, BDR 87.6, MCR 72.7, EQS 29.4, Trifecta Ratio 0.279, ROIC −141.5%, fwd EV/Sales 280x, 83% above its 200-day average, 1.22x OM target, short interest 28.0%, beta 3.16. Strive is a bitcoin treasury company that also owns Semler Scientific's diagnostics business. The market prices it largely on its bitcoin holdings and share-issuance strategy. Bear: 280x sales with value tied to bitcoin and continued dilution. Bull: a bitcoin rally lifts the treasury and the premium. Biggest downside factor: VSR at 97.8. Short risks: a bitcoin rally, a squeeze with 28.0% short interest, and strong momentum (83% above its 200-day).
8. TSAT, Telesat | OM Score −25.6 | SMP −139.6 | OM2 Short 90.5 | Composite tier | 4/5 signature. MCR 96.2, VSR 88.6, BDR 81.7, CAS 7.1, FRM 1.7, Trifecta Ratio 0.307, ROIC −7.1%, fwd EV/EBITDA 37.6x, fwd FCF/EV −26.1%, forward revenue growth −26.1%, net debt 4.7x market cap, beta 3.40. No sell-side target in the data. Telesat is a Canadian satellite operator building Lightspeed, a low-Earth-orbit broadband constellation, while its legacy geostationary revenue declines. The market treats it as a leveraged LEO option. Bear: shrinking revenue, heavy capex and a debt-dominated balance sheet. Bull: Lightspeed launches on time and wins government contracts. Biggest downside factor: CAS at 7.1. Short risks: Lightspeed contract wins, a thin float and 3.40 beta, and weak core signals (OM Score only −25.6).
9. SPCE, Virgin Galactic | OM Score −126.2 | SMP −197.9 | OM2 Short 89.6 | Near Pass | 5/5 signature. VSR 98.0, highest in the book, MCR 92.0, EQS 1.9, FRM 0.7, Trifecta Ratio 0.000, tied lowest, ROIC −35.2%, fwd EV/Sales 8.0x, fwd FCF/EV −52.1%, forward revenue growth −38.9%, 1.30x OM target, short interest 22.3%, beta 3.67. Virgin Galactic is developing Delta-class spaceships for suborbital space tourism after pausing flights. The market treats it as a speculative restart story. Bear: years of cash burn with no revenue until Delta flies. Bull: Delta flights begin on schedule and ticket demand holds. Biggest downside factor: fwd FCF/EV at −52.1%, the worst in the book. Short risks: Delta test-flight milestones, a squeeze with 22.3% short interest, and retail-driven spikes (beta 3.67).
10. MXL, MaxLinear | OM Score −84.7 | SMP −161.5 | OM2 Short 89.1 | Near Pass | 2/5 signature. BDR 98.2, highest in the book, MCR 76.8, VSR 77.6, FRM 92.3, EQS 38.1, Trifecta Ratio 0.547, ROIC −16.4%, fwd EV/EBITDA 35.2x, fwd EV/Sales 11.0x, forward revenue growth 50.5%, 1.18x OM target, 1.06x sell-side target, 53% above its 200-day average, beta 3.53. MaxLinear makes RF and mixed-signal chips for broadband, Wi-Fi, infrastructure and data-center optical links. The market has rerated it on AI optical interconnect demand. Bear: the rally has outrun earnings, and the stock trades above its targets. Bull: optical DSP wins in AI data centers keep growth near 50%. Biggest downside factor: BDR at 98.2. Short risks: strong forward growth (FRM 92.3), AI optical momentum, and high beta (3.53).
11. ALMU, Aeluma | OM Score −147.7 | SMP −287.7 | OM2 Short 89.0 | Near Pass | 3/5 signature. MCR 96.8, VSR 97.3, BDR 52.2, FRM 15.7, EQS 35.9, Trifecta Ratio 0.019, ROIC −23.5%, fwd EV/Sales 57.0x, forward revenue growth −4.4%, 1.36x OM target, short interest 18.8%, beta 3.82, 26% below its 200-day average. Aeluma develops semiconductor sensors built on large-diameter substrates for defense, AI and mobile markets. The market treats it as a micro-cap AI and defense photonics story. Bear: 57x sales on tiny, shrinking revenue. Bull: government contracts and commercial design wins scale quickly. Biggest downside factor: MCR at 96.8. Short risks: contract announcements in a $253M micro-cap, a squeeze with 18.8% short interest, and micro-cap volatility (beta 3.82).
12. LITE, Lumentum | OM Score −98.6 | SMP −174.0 | OM2 Short 88.3 | Near Pass | 2/5 signature. BDR 93.9, MCR 77.6, VSR 75.4, FRM 96.2, EQS 43.9, Trifecta Ratio 0.600, ROIC −137.9% (likely distorted by charges), fwd EV/EBITDA 33.9x, fwd EV/Sales 15.2x, forward revenue growth 83.2%, 1.22x OM target, 26% above its 200-day average. Lumentum makes lasers, optical transceivers and photonic components, now driven by AI data-center networking. The market treats it as a core AI optics winner at a $97B valuation. Bear: 15x sales prices in sustained hypergrowth. Bull: AI optical demand keeps growing faster than supply. Biggest downside factor: BDR at 93.9. The price is 22% above its OM target. Short risks: AI capex upside, strong forward growth (FRM 96.2), and a large, liquid stock with momentum behind it.
13. RBRK, Rubrik | OM Score −51.9 | SMP −209.7 | OM2 Short 87.3 | Near Pass | 2/5 signature. BDR 87.8, MCR 79.5, VSR 77.6, FRM 89.7, EQS 37.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.733, ROIC −40.6%, fwd EV/EBITDA 246x, fwd EV/Sales 13.0x, forward revenue growth 42.4%, 1.10x OM target, 56% above its 200-day average. Rubrik sells data security and backup software that helps companies recover from ransomware attacks. The market values it as a premium cybersecurity growth name. Bear: 246x EBITDA for a business still losing money. Bull: 42% growth and operating leverage close the gap fast. Biggest downside factor: fwd EV/EBITDA at 246x. Short risks: strong growth (FRM 89.7), a Trifecta Ratio of 0.733 that conflicts with the short case, and cybersecurity M&A interest.
14. CEVA, CEVA | OM Score −21.4 | SMP −83.8 | OM2 Short 87.2 | Composite tier | 2/5 signature. VSR 91.2, MCR 81.3, BDR 81.1, CAS 64.3, EQS 49.8, Trifecta Ratio 0.523, ROIC −3.5%, fwd EV/EBITDA 33.4x, fwd EV/Sales 6.3x, forward revenue growth 8.8%, 1.04x OM target, short interest 11.2%, beta 2.92. CEVA licenses wireless connectivity, DSP and edge-AI processor IP to chipmakers. The market treats it as an edge-AI royalty story. Bear: 33x EBITDA for single-digit growth and near-breakeven returns. Bull: edge-AI NPU licensing drives a royalty inflection. Biggest downside factor: MCR at 81.3. Short risks: the weakest OM Score in the book (−21.4), net cash of 19% of market cap, and edge-AI licensing announcements.
15. HTFL, HeartFlow | OM Score −105.6 | SMP −178.0 | OM2 Short 87.0 | Near Pass | 3/5 signature. BDR 92.9, VSR 75.0, MCR 71.6, EQS 32.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.305, ROIC −61.4%, fwd EV/Sales 14.8x, forward revenue growth 42.8%, 1.24x OM target, 1.07x sell-side target, 47% above its 200-day average. HeartFlow sells AI software that analyzes coronary CT scans to assess blockages without invasive testing. The market treats it as a high-growth AI medtech IPO. Bear: 15x sales for a loss-making company trading above its targets. Bull: reimbursement and guideline adoption drive sustained 40%+ growth. Biggest downside factor: BDR at 92.9. Short risks: expanded Medicare reimbursement, strong growth momentum, and medtech takeover interest.
16. QUIK, QuickLogic | OM Score −69.7 | SMP −100.9 | OM2 Short 86.8 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. MCR 91.4, VSR 86.3, BDR 67.0, FRM 6.4, EQS 26.6, CAS 39.4, Trifecta Ratio 0.709, ROIC −30.9%, fwd EV/EBITDA 29.1x, fwd EV/Sales 7.8x, forward revenue growth −9.0%, 1.14x OM target, beta 2.55. QuickLogic licenses embedded FPGA IP and sells FPGAs, with a focus on aerospace and defense. The market treats it as a micro-cap defense-semiconductor option. Bear: shrinking revenue at nearly 8x sales. Bull: radiation-hardened defense programs turn into production revenue. Biggest downside factor: MCR at 91.4. Short risks: defense contract awards, a $217M market cap that moves on small news, and a Trifecta Ratio of 0.709 that conflicts with the short case.
17. RKLB, Rocket Lab | OM Score −85.9 | SMP −299.6, a hair from the −300 strict line | OM2 Short 86.7 | Near Pass | 3/5 signature. VSR 84.8, MCR 80.7, BDR 71.7, EQS 37.6, Trifecta Ratio 0.382, ROIC −6.9%, fwd EV/Sales 36.4x, forward EBITDA near zero, forward revenue growth 52.5%, 1.18x OM target, beta 3.85, market cap $44B. Rocket Lab launches small satellites with Electron, builds spacecraft components and is developing the larger Neutron rocket. The market treats it as the leading SpaceX alternative. Bear: 36x sales with Neutron still unproven. Bull: Neutron succeeds and defense constellation contracts scale. Biggest downside factor: SMP at −299.6. Short risks: a successful Neutron launch, defense and space contract wins, and a dedicated retail following.
18. MASS, 908 Devices | OM Score −75.9 | SMP −119.3 | OM2 Short 86.6 | Near Pass | 2/5 signature. BDR 93.9, VSR 78.4, MCR 70.0, EQS 35.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.728, ROIC −24.4%, fwd EV/Sales 5.6x, forward revenue growth 13.3%, 1.16x OM target, 51% above its 200-day average, recent price change +16.0%. 908 Devices makes handheld mass spectrometry devices that identify chemicals, drugs and explosives for defense, public safety and labs. The market has bid it up on defense and fentanyl-detection demand. Bear: loss-making, and the price has run ahead of its targets. Bull: government procurement drives steady double-digit growth. Biggest downside factor: BDR at 93.9. Short risks: government contract awards, net cash of 19% of market cap, and a Trifecta Ratio of 0.728 that conflicts with the short case.
19. SHMD, SCHMID Group | OM Score −69.4 | SMP −224.9 | OM2 Short 86.6 | Near Pass | 5/5 signature. BDR 97.9, MCR 76.4, CAS 10.2, EQS 17.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.192, ROIC −542.7%, worst in the book, fwd EV/EBITDA 52.2x, net debt 49% of market cap, 1.14x OM target, recent price change +24.2%. No sell-side target in the data. SCHMID is a German maker of production equipment for printed circuit boards, IC substrates and solar cells, listed via SPAC. The market treats it as a speculative AI-packaging equipment play. Bear: heavy losses, leverage and a weak balance sheet. Bull: advanced-packaging equipment orders for AI chips ramp. Biggest downside factor: ROIC at −542.7%. Short risks: AI substrate order announcements, a $264M market cap with a 3.44 beta, and thin liquidity.
20. IE, Ivanhoe Electric | OM Score −90.8 | SMP −230.8 | OM2 Short 86.5 | Near Pass | 3/5 signature. MCR 99.2, highest in the book, VSR 83.0, FRM 1.5, EQS 36.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.031, ROIC −7.2%, fwd EV/Sales 434x, highest in the book, fwd FCF/EV −25.8%, 1.20x OM target, 0.49x sell-side target, beta 3.51. Ivanhoe Electric is a copper explorer developing the Santa Cruz project in Arizona, with a geophysical survey technology business on the side. The market values it on copper optionality. Bear: almost no revenue and heavy development spending. Bull: rising copper prices and a construction decision re-rate Santa Cruz. Biggest downside factor: MCR at 99.2. Short risks: a copper rally, Santa Cruz financing or permitting milestones, and a sell-side target twice the current price.
21. SMR, NuScale Power | OM Score −123.1 | SMP −251.0 | OM2 Short 86.3 | Near Pass | 4/5 signature. MCR 98.9, VSR 97.3, EQS 3.4, FRM 0.4, lowest in the book, Trifecta Ratio 0.001, ROIC −33.0%, fwd EV/Sales 36.3x, forward revenue growth −81.0%, 1.29x OM target, short interest 18.5%, beta 3.93. NuScale designs small modular nuclear reactors and holds the first NRC-approved SMR design. The market treats it as the flagship SMR trade. Bear: collapsing near-term revenue and no firm orders converting to cash. Bull: a signed utility or data-center deployment validates the design. Biggest downside factor: FRM at 0.4. Short risks: deployment or power-purchase announcements, nuclear policy tailwinds, and a squeeze with 18.5% short interest.
22. OUST, Ouster | OM Score −78.3 | SMP −144.2 | OM2 Short 86.2 | Near Pass | 2/5 signature. VSR 90.0, BDR 79.5, MCR 69.2, EQS 31.7, FRM 61.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.327, ROIC −17.0%, fwd EV/Sales 11.8x, forward revenue growth 62.8%, 1.17x OM target, beta 4.12, 25% above its 200-day average. Ouster makes digital lidar sensors for industrial automation, robotics, smart infrastructure and vehicles. The market treats it as the surviving lidar consolidator. Bear: still loss-making at nearly 12x sales. Bull: 63% forward growth and margin gains push it to profitability. Biggest downside factor: VSR at 90.0. Short risks: strong forward growth, robotics and physical-AI enthusiasm, and a 4.12 beta that makes squeezes violent.
23. LPTH, LightPath Technologies | OM Score −26.0 | SMP −180.0 | OM2 Short 86.1 | Composite tier | 3/5 signature. VSR 94.9, BDR 74.7, MCR 73.2, EQS 33.8, FRM 70.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.384, ROIC −17.5%, fwd EV/EBITDA 77.6x, forward revenue growth 92.8%, 1.05x OM target, short interest 16.3%, recent price change +12.5%. LightPath makes optical components and infrared lenses and cameras, including germanium-free glass for defense applications. The market treats it as a defense-optics growth story. Bear: 78x EBITDA on unproven profitability. Bull: defense infrared camera orders nearly double revenue. Biggest downside factor: VSR at 94.9. Short risks: defense order wins, a squeeze with 16.3% short interest, and weak core signals (OM Score only −26.0).
24. GPRO, GoPro | OM Score −339.4, lowest in the universe | SMP −387.3 | OM2 Short 86.0 | Strict Pass | 4/5 signature. BDR 92.6, VSR 97.5, MCR 39.8, CAS 17.4, EQS 21.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.194, ROIC −118.0%, forward revenue growth −23.9%, 2.59x OM target, 2.70x sell-side target, net debt 24% of market cap, short interest 18.0%, beta 4.57. GoPro makes action cameras and sells subscriptions. The market treats it as a shrinking consumer-hardware brand trading at $1.35. Bear: falling sales, losses and debt, with the stock far above its targets. Bull: at 0.47x sales, any stabilization or a sale could re-rate it. Biggest downside factor: price at 2.70x its sell-side target. Short risks: a cheap valuation (MCR only 39.8), meme-style squeezes with an 18.0% short interest, and a takeover or licensing deal.
25. CDZI, Cadiz | OM Score −158.1 | SMP −283.1 | OM2 Short 85.8 | Near Pass | 5/5 signature. MCR 98.4, VSR 78.5, EQS 2.2, FRM 1.9, CAS 15.6, Trifecta Ratio 0.000, tied lowest, ROIC −33.7%, fwd EV/Sales 34.6x, forward revenue growth −21.3%, net debt 35% of market cap, 1.40x OM target, 0.37x sell-side target. Cadiz owns water rights and land over a Mojave Desert aquifer and is building pipeline and water-treatment infrastructure to supply Southern California. The market values it on a long-dated water supply story. Bear: minimal revenue, ongoing losses and debt. Bull: signed water-supply agreements and pipeline progress unlock the asset. Biggest downside factor: MCR at 98.4. Short risks: water-supply contract announcements, a sell-side target 2.7x the current price, and drought headlines in California.
Thank you for reading this week’s issue of The Oddsmaker. If you would like to view more content like this, or access the Oddsmaker Universe and find every stock tracked by the Oddsmaker all in one place, visit our website:
See you next week.
- The Oddsmaker Team
Disclosure & Disclaimer
The Oddsmaker is a financial media and research publication provided for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or legal, tax, or accounting advice. The Oddsmaker, its affiliates, employees, contributors, related parties, and associated accounts may hold long, short, or other positions in securities discussed and may buy or sell such securities without notice. Any scores, rankings, ratings, probabilities, expected returns, forecasts, analytics, models, simulations, or backtested results are hypothetical analytical opinions based on assumptions and methodologies that may prove incorrect. They are not guarantees of future performance or outcomes. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, The Oddsmaker makes no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting qualified financial, legal, tax, and accounting professionals before making investment decisions.
© The Oddsmaker. All rights reserved.

