Welcome to this week’s Oddsmaker Top 25 Best and Worst. First, a brief update on the recently weekly performance of the Oddsmaker Top 25 Best and Worst Picks:
+14.6% average weekly long/short spread — positive in 6 of 9 weeks. The core "does the ranking work" number, and it's still clearly positive (avg 131 spread-points / 9 weeks).
Only one losing week in nine — The spread ran hot early (+43% → +31% → +29% → +24%), then compressed hard: +8%, +4%, 0%, −8%, 0% over the last five weeks. Almost all of the recent flattening is the short book, not the longs — shorts rose (worked against the position) in four straight weeks (7-13 through 8-3), while longs stayed green throughout.
Longs beat SPY every single week — 9 of 9, +7.0% avg weekly excess, 62% long hit rate. The long side is carrying the record; SPY excess never dipped below +1% and hit +12% in four of the first five weeks.
Best week: 5-18 at +43% spread (longs +17%, shorts −27%). Worst: 7-27 at −8%.
Top 25 Best Stocks In The Market Now
1. GRND — Grindr Inc. | OM Score 96.2 (SMP 193.2, Composite, 5/5 signature; CAS 90.5, FRM 87.6, EQS 86.6, ROIC 22.4%, Holy Trinity 0.99, ~+20% to OM target). Grindr runs the largest LGBTQ+ social/dating platform, monetizing via subscriptions and ads. The market views it as a high-margin, cash-generative niche monopoly still early in monetizing its user base. Bull case: pricing power, expanding ARPU, and near-90th-percentile capital allocation with a top-decile Holy Trinity. Bear case: single-app concentration, reputational/regulatory scrutiny, and a levered balance sheet (net cash/mkt cap −0.14). Biggest upside factor: capital-allocation efficiency (CAS 90.5) converting a loyal base into rising free cash flow. Three main risks: user-growth saturation, content/regulatory or app-store risk, and debt refinancing.
2. TNK — Teekay Tankers Ltd. | OM Score 87.0 (SMP 224.9, Near Pass, 5/5; EQS 91.8, FRM 92.7, RAVG 88.8, ROIC 25.9%, net cash/mkt cap +0.40, fwd EV/EBITDA 4.1x, ~+18%). A mid-size crude/product tanker operator levered to spot rates. The market treats it as a deep-cyclical cash machine trading at a low multiple with a fortress balance sheet. Bull case: strong estimate revisions, high earnings quality, and net-cash position funding buybacks/dividends. Bear case: rates are cyclical and could mean-revert hard. Biggest upside factor: forward revisions momentum (FRM 92.7, RAVG 88.8) as tanker rates stay elevated. Three main risks: tanker-rate collapse, fleet/newbuild oversupply, and geopolitical shipping-route normalization.
3. DAVE — Dave Inc. | OM Score 101.7 (SMP 205.7, Near Pass, 5/5; FRM 95.5, CAS 93.4, EQS 90.7, ROIC 57.9%, Holy Trinity 0.99, ~+21%). A neobank offering cash advances and banking to underserved consumers. The market now views it as a profitable fintech after a rough post-SPAC stretch. Bull case: rapid revenue growth, exceptional ROIC (57.9%), and top-tier quality/growth scores. Bear case: exposure to subprime credit and regulatory attention on advance-fee models. Biggest upside factor: growth-plus-returns combination (FRM 95.5 with 58% ROIC). Three main risks: consumer-credit deterioration, CFPB/regulatory action on fee structure, and low OLI/insider score (27.9) signaling thin smart-money support.
4. LPG — Dorian LPG Ltd. | OM Score 104.5 (SMP 177.8, Composite, 3/5; RAVG 97.4, FRM 97.2, TRS 89.2, fwd EV/EBITDA 7.4x, ~+21%). A very-large-gas-carrier (VLGC) operator shipping LPG globally. The market prices it as a shipping cyclical riding strong US export volumes. Bull case: near-max analyst revisions and forward-growth scores plus firm momentum. Bear case: only a 3/5 signature — middling EQS (54) and low Holy Trinity (0.71) suggest the setup leans on cyclical tailwinds. Biggest upside factor: estimate revisions (RAVG 97.4) as freight rates firm. Three main risks: VLGC rate volatility, US–Asia arbitrage compression, and vessel oversupply.
5. MU — Micron Technology, Inc. | OM Score 105.7 (SMP 229.2, Near Pass, 4/5; FRM 98.9, TRS 96.7, EQS 84.7, ROIC 57.3%, fwd EV/EBITDA 5.2x, Holy Trinity 0.98, ~+22%). The leading US memory maker (DRAM/NAND) with heavy HBM exposure to AI. The market views it as the cheapest large-cap AI-memory play. Bull case: best-in-class forward growth (FRM 98.9) and momentum (TRS 96.7) on an HBM/DRAM up-cycle, at ~5x forward EBITDA. Bear case: memory is brutally cyclical and pricing can turn quickly. Biggest upside factor: forward-revenue/margin acceleration (FRM 98.9). Three main risks: memory pricing rollover, capex-cycle overbuild, and China/export-control exposure.
6. SNDK — Sandisk Corporation | OM Score 85.2 (SMP 221.0, Near Pass, 5/5; FRM 99.8, TRS 97.4, EQS 94.9, ROIC 84.6%, Holy Trinity 0.999, ~+18%). The NAND-flash pure-play spun out of Western Digital. The market sees it as a leveraged bet on the NAND up-cycle. Bull case: the top forward-growth and quality profile in the book (FRM 99.8, EQS 94.9) with an 85% ROIC and a perfect Holy Trinity. Bear case: NAND is even more commoditized/cyclical than DRAM. Biggest upside factor: forward growth (FRM 99.8) as NAND pricing recovers. Three main risks: NAND price war, standalone-company execution, and cyclical demand air-pocket.
7. PARR — Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | OM Score 87.3 (SMP 193.7, Composite, 5/5; RAVG 98.2, TRS 94.5, CAS 92.2, fwd EV/Sales 0.65x, ~+18%). A refiner and logistics/retail operator concentrated in Hawaii, the Rockies, and the Pacific NW. The market treats it as a niche, undervalued refiner. Bull case: peak-tier revisions (98.2), momentum, and capital allocation at a rock-bottom sales multiple. Bear case: refining margins (crack spreads) drive earnings and are volatile; net cash/mkt cap −0.24. Biggest upside factor: analyst revisions (RAVG 98.2) on strengthening cracks. Three main risks: crack-spread compression, single-region refinery outages, and leverage.
8. ISSC — Innovative Solutions & Support (Innovative Aerosystems) | OM Score 103.0 (SMP 176.2, Composite, 5/5; RAVG 91.1, FRM 86.5, EQS 75.9, fwd EV/EBITDA 14.6x, small-cap $412mm, ~+21%). A vertically integrated avionics/cockpit-systems maker growing via Honeywell/Moog product-line acquisitions. The market views it as a small-cap aerospace roll-up with real IP. Bull case: strong revisions and growth as retrofit demand rises and acquisitions scale; ~54% gross margins. Bear case: the richest forward multiple in the long book (14.6x) and acquisition-integration dependence. Biggest upside factor: revisions/growth momentum (RAVG 91.1). Three main risks: integration missteps, defense/OEM order lumpiness, and multiple compression from the high valuation.
9. MNTN — MNTN, Inc. | OM Score 88.6 (SMP 203.5, Near Pass, 4/5; FRM 97.1, EQS 87.0, TRS 89.3, net cash/mkt cap +0.25, fwd EV/Sales 1.8x, ~+18%). A self-serve connected-TV (CTV) advertising software platform. The market sees it as a high-growth adtech IPO with a clean balance sheet. Bull case: top-quartile forward growth and earnings quality with net cash and a reasonable sales multiple. Bear case: adtech spend is discretionary and competitive; RAVG only 51.8. Biggest upside factor: forward growth (FRM 97.1) as CTV budgets shift from linear. Three main risks: ad-budget cyclicality, CTV competition (The Trade Desk, Amazon), and post-IPO lockup/dilution.
10. QNST — QuinStreet, Inc. | OM Score 89.0 (SMP 197.3, Composite, 5/5; TRS 97.2, RAVG 89.8, CAS 82.5, ROIC 24.9%, fwd EV/Sales 0.75x, ~+18%). A performance-marketing/lead-generation platform for financial services and home services. The market views it as a cyclical marketplace leveraged to insurance-carrier ad budgets. Bull case: top-decile momentum and revisions with a cheap sales multiple. Bear case: revenue concentration in auto-insurance advertising; low OLI (21.1). Biggest upside factor: price momentum (TRS 97.2) plus revisions on the insurance-ad rebound. Three main risks: insurance-carrier spend pullback, client concentration, and Google/traffic-cost dependence.
11. HIPO — Hippo Holdings Inc. | OM Score 88.6 (SMP 172.8, Composite, 5/5; RAVG 88.2, OLI 70.7, fwd FCF/EV 0.26, net cash/mkt cap +0.22, Holy Trinity 0.99, ~+18%). A tech-enabled home-insurance carrier and platform. The market treats it as a turnaround insurtech finally moving toward underwriting profit. Bull case: strong revisions, healthy FCF/EV, net cash, and the best insider/ownership score in the book (OLI 70.7). Bear case: catastrophe exposure and a still-unproven underwriting model. Biggest upside factor: FCF generation (fwd FCF/EV 0.26) as the loss ratio improves. Three main risks: catastrophe/weather losses, reinsurance-cost spikes, and growth-vs-profitability tension.
12. SEZL — Sezzle Inc. | OM Score 98.6 (SMP 186.2, Composite, 5/5; FRM 90.9, EQS 88.9, CAS 86.4, ROIC 52.3%, fwd EV/Sales 6.4x, Holy Trinity 0.99, ~+20%). A buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) provider focused on subprime/near-prime consumers. The market views it as a high-growth, high-ROIC BNPL that has swung to profitability. Bull case: elite growth, quality, and 52% ROIC. Bear case: the priciest sales multiple in the book (6.4x), subprime credit exposure, and low OLI (21.0). Biggest upside factor: forward growth (FRM 90.9) with high returns. Three main risks: consumer-credit losses, BNPL regulation, and valuation compression.
13. JCAP — Jefferson Capital, Inc. | OM Score 106.3 (SMP 179.1, Composite, 3/5; fwd FCF/EV 0.28, RAVG 87.8, TRS 86.4, net cash/mkt cap −1.01, ~+22%). An analytics-driven buyer of charged-off/insolvency consumer debt across the US, Canada, UK, and Latin America (IPO'd June 2025, ~67% J.C. Flowers-owned). The market sees a countercyclical, high-FCF-yield specialty finance name. Bull case: highest FCF/EV in the book, strong revisions, and a business that benefits from rising charge-offs. Bear case: heavy leverage (net cash/mkt cap −1.01), low ROIC (5.4%), weak EQS (46.8), and a 3/5 signature — the bear thesis questions underlying recovery economics. Biggest upside factor: free-cash-flow yield (fwd FCF/EV 0.28). Three main risks: leverage/refinancing, regulatory (CFPB) friction, and portfolio-pricing/recovery misses.
14. SM — SM Energy Company | OM Score 100.6 (SMP 240.6, Near Pass, 5/5; FRM 90.3, RAVG 79.7, fwd EV/EBITDA 3.0x, net cash/mkt cap −0.85, Holy Trinity 0.99, ~+21%). A Permian/South Texas oil & gas E&P. The market prices it as a cheap, levered oil producer. Bull case: strongest SMP in the long book (240.6), 3x forward EBITDA, and strong forward growth. Bear case: high leverage (net cash/mkt cap −0.85) and full commodity-price sensitivity; modest ROIC (7.3%). Biggest upside factor: valuation/SMP re-rating (3.0x EBITDA) if oil holds. Three main risks: crude-price decline, debt load, and Permian cost inflation/well-productivity fade.
15. RCMT — RCM Technologies, Inc. | OM Score 90.0 (SMP 190.0, Composite, 5/5; TRS 98.6, RAVG 88.7, fwd EV/Sales 0.73x, micro-cap $249mm, ~+18%). A specialty staffing/engineering-solutions firm (healthcare, engineering, IT). The market views it as a cheap micro-cap with momentum. Bull case: the highest momentum in the book (TRS 98.6) plus strong revisions at 0.73x sales. Bear case: micro-cap illiquidity and a weak forward-growth read (FRM 47.6). Biggest upside factor: price momentum/revisions. Three main risks: staffing-demand cyclicality, micro-cap liquidity, and client concentration.
16. VLO — Valero Energy Corporation | OM Score 68.8 (SMP 181.2, Composite, 5/5; CAS 93.1, RAVG 97.6, TRS 94.1, fwd EV/Sales 0.78x, ~+14%). One of the largest independent refiners, with growing renewable-diesel exposure. The market treats it as a best-in-class refiner returning heavy cash. Bull case: top-tier capital allocation and revisions with strong momentum. Bear case: lowest OM Score in the book (68.8) and P/SS target above 1.0 (least SS upside); refining is margin-cyclical. Biggest upside factor: capital returns/allocation (CAS 93.1). Three main risks: crack-spread compression, renewable-diesel margin pressure, and demand cyclicality.
17. HRTG — Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. | OM Score 131.9 (SMP 259.2, Near Pass, 4/5; highest OM Score & SMP in book; EQS 86.2, ROIC 37.2%, net cash/mkt cap +0.51, fwd EV/EBITDA 1.6x, ~+27%). A super-regional property & casualty (coastal home) insurer. The market sees a hard-market P&C winner trading dirt cheap. Bull case: the strongest raw OM Score/SMP in the entire long book, 37% ROIC, big net-cash position, and ~1.6x EBITDA. Bear case: coastal-catastrophe concentration and reserve risk; RAVG only 50. Biggest upside factor: the extreme Score+SMP signal (131.9 / 259.2). Three main risks: hurricane/catastrophe losses, reinsurance-cost inflation, and reserve adequacy.
18. EVER — EverQuote, Inc. | OM Score 105.1 (SMP 222.8, Near Pass, 4/5; CAS 93.9, EQS 87.3, ROIC 53.0%, net cash/mkt cap +0.22, fwd EV/Sales 0.80x, ~+22%). An online insurance-shopping marketplace. The market views it as a high-return, asset-light lead-gen leader. Bull case: 94th-percentile capital allocation, 53% ROIC, net cash, cheap sales multiple. Bear case: like QNST, tied to auto-insurance-carrier ad budgets; RAVG only 43. Biggest upside factor: capital efficiency (CAS 93.9, ROIC 53%). Three main risks: carrier-ad-spend cyclicality, marketplace concentration, and traffic-acquisition costs.
19. DLO — DLocal Limited | OM Score 96.2 (SMP 223.5, Near Pass, 5/5; EQS 91.9, CAS 87.3, RAVG 76.4, ROIC 26.3%, net cash/mkt cap +0.19, Holy Trinity 0.996, ~+20%). A cross-border payments platform for emerging markets (LatAm, Africa, Asia). The market sees a high-growth EM-payments enabler. Bull case: elite earnings quality and capital allocation with a near-perfect Holy Trinity. Bear case: the weakest momentum in the book (TRS 54.5) and EM FX/regulatory exposure. Biggest upside factor: earnings quality + returns (EQS 91.9). Three main risks: EM currency volatility, take-rate compression from competition, and country-specific regulation.
20. MGY — Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | OM Score 109.8 (SMP 245.9, Near Pass, 5/5; RAVG 99.4 [top in book], CAS 86.6, fwd EV/EBITDA 3.5x, Holy Trinity 0.98, ~+23%). A disciplined South Texas (Eagle Ford/Austin Chalk) E&P known for free-cash-flow returns. The market views it as one of the highest-quality small-cap oil names. Bull case: the strongest analyst revisions in the entire book (99.4), strong SMP, and low leverage. Bear case: momentum is the weakest here (TRS 21.7), and it's fully oil-price exposed. Biggest upside factor: revisions surge (RAVG 99.4). Three main risks: crude-price decline, inventory-runway/drilling-location depletion, and Eagle Ford cost inflation.
21. CARG — CarGurus, Inc. | OM Score 91.3 (SMP 192.1, Composite, 4/5; CAS 94.8, EQS 89.3, OLI 73.9, ROIC 32.6%, fwd EV/EBITDA 9.4x, ~+19%). The leading US auto-shopping marketplace. The market treats it as a high-margin marketplace recovering after wind-down of its wholesale unit. Bull case: best-in-book capital allocation (94.8), strong quality, and a high insider/ownership score (73.9). Bear case: weak revisions (RAVG 42.5) and dealer-budget dependence. Biggest upside factor: capital-allocation efficiency (CAS 94.8, ROIC 32.6%). Three main risks: dealer-ad-spend softness, used-car-market cyclicality, and marketplace competition.
22. GCT — GigaCloud Technology Inc. | OM Score 89.5 (SMP 186.0, Composite, 5/5; CAS 88.1, TRS 88.4, RAVG 87.2, fwd EV/Sales 1.25x, ~+18%). A B2B marketplace connecting Asian furniture/large-parcel manufacturers with Western resellers, plus logistics. The market views it as a fast-growing but China-linked, low-multiple platform. Bull case: strong capital allocation, momentum, and revisions at ~1.25x sales. Bear case: tariff/China-supply-chain exposure and disclosure/short-seller history. Biggest upside factor: the balanced capital-allocation-plus-growth profile (CAS 88.1). Three main risks: tariff/trade-policy shocks, customer concentration, and governance/accounting scrutiny.
23. STRL — Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. | OM Score 100.7 (SMP 175.8, Composite, 5/5; FRM 90.6, RAVG 85.0, EQS 83.7, ROIC 28.9%, fwd EV/EBITDA 17.4x, ~+21%). An e-infrastructure/data-center-site, transportation, and building-solutions contractor. The market sees a prime beneficiary of data-center and reshoring construction. Bull case: strong forward growth and revisions riding the data-center capex wave. Bear case: the priciest EBITDA multiple in the book (17.4x) and weak momentum (TRS 33.3). Biggest upside factor: forward growth (FRM 90.6) on data-center backlog. Three main risks: construction-cycle/backlog rollover, project-margin execution, and valuation compression from the high multiple.
24. EOG — EOG Resources, Inc. | OM Score 99.6 (SMP 225.4, Near Pass, 4/5; CAS 87.7, OLI 68.4, EQS 79.4, fwd EV/EBITDA 4.8x, Holy Trinity 0.98, ~+20%). A premier large-cap US shale E&P known for capital discipline and low breakevens. The market treats it as the quality/blue-chip name in the energy sleeve. Bull case: strong capital allocation, high smart-money score, and a near-top Holy Trinity at under 5x EBITDA. Bear case: weak revisions/momentum (RAVG 48.9, TRS 52.4) and full commodity exposure. Biggest upside factor: capital-allocation quality (CAS 87.7). Three main risks: oil-price decline, inventory/well-productivity concerns, and capital-return-vs-growth balance.
25. NUTX — Nutex Health Inc. | OM Score 119.9 (SMP 208.6, Near Pass, 3/5; 2nd-highest OM Score in book; TRS 96.0, EQS 81.9, fwd EV/EBITDA 5.5x, ~+25%). An operator of micro-hospitals/ER facilities and a physician-network business. The market views it as a volatile, high-beta healthcare turnaround with big No-Surprises-Act arbitration upside. Bull case: very high raw OM Score/SMP and top-tier momentum at a modest multiple. Bear case: weakest signature in this group (3/5) with low RAVG (40.2) and Holy Trinity (0.73); earnings hinge on disputed arbitration collections. Biggest upside factor: the strong Score+momentum signal (OM 119.9, TRS 96.0). Three main risks: arbitration/collections reversal, reimbursement-policy change, and balance-sheet/liquidity volatility.
Top 25 Worst Stocks In The Market Now
1. AEHR — Aehr Test Systems, Inc. | OM Score −231.7 (SMP −426.7, Strict Pass, 3/5; MCR 89.0, BDR 98.5, VSR 96.6, fwd EV/EBITDA 176x, fwd EV/Sales 31x, ROIC −3.9%, SI 13%, Beta 4.4, ~−47% to OM target). Aehr makes semiconductor burn-in/test systems, historically levered to silicon-carbide (EV/AI) wafer test. The market treats it as a boom-bust momentum name that re-rated on AI/SiC hype. Bear case: the most extreme Score/SMP in the entire book, a nosebleed 176x forward EBITDA, negative ROIC, and price ~90% above the OM target. Bull case (short risk): customer-concentration orders can spike and the 4.4 beta makes it squeeze-prone. Biggest downside factor: behavioral dislocation (BDR 98.5) — price stretched far above fundamentals. Three main risks to the short: a large SiC/test order announcement, a broad AI-semi rally, and a violent short squeeze (high beta).
2. FEIM — Frequency Electronics, Inc. | OM Score −47.8 (SMP −196.5, Composite, 3/5; MCR 95.7, BDR 91.7, VSR 90.3, fwd EV/EBITDA 58x, fwd EV/Sales 11x, ROIC −1.4%, Beta 2.4, ~−10%). Makes precision timing/frequency-control products for satellites and defense/aerospace. The market views it as a small defense-timing niche that ran hard on space/defense enthusiasm. Bear case: highest multiple-compression risk in the book (95.7) at 58x forward EBITDA with negative ROIC. Bull case (short risk): defense/space backlog and contract wins can lift a thin float. Biggest downside factor: multiple compression (MCR 95.7). Three main risks to the short: defense-budget/contract catalysts, small-float illiquidity, and modest OM Score (−47.8) meaning the core signal is weaker than the multiple.
3. PI — Impinj, Inc. | OM Score −35.8 (SMP −190.2, Composite, 3/5; MCR 95.4, BDR 92.0, VSR 90.6, fwd EV/EBITDA 56x, fwd EV/Sales 13x, ROIC −5.5%, Beta 3.0, ~−7%). The leader in RAIN RFID chips and readers (retail/logistics item tagging). The market sees a secular RFID-adoption story that periodically overshoots on inventory cycles. Bear case: 56x forward EBITDA, negative ROIC, and top-tier compression risk. Bull case (short risk): RFID unit-volume inflections and enterprise-endpoint wins can drive sharp beats. Biggest downside factor: multiple compression (MCR 95.4). Three main risks to the short: an RFID demand re-acceleration, large retailer rollouts, and a soft OM Score (−35.8) that leaves the thesis reliant on valuation.
4. UMAC — Unusual Machines, Inc. | OM Score −231.6 (SMP −301.7, Strict Pass, 4/5; VSR 98.5, MCR 83.9, BDR 79.2, fwd EV/Sales 18x, ROIC −2.9%, SI 19%, Beta 4.4, ~−47%). A small maker of drone components/FPV parts positioned on US-made-drone and defense-reshoring themes. The market treats it as a speculative retail-momentum drone play. Bear case: extreme negative Score/SMP, tiny revenue against an 18x sales multiple, and price ~90% above the OM target. Bull case (short risk): highest-in-book squeeze risk (VSR 98.5) with 19% short interest and 4.4 beta — policy headlines can rip it higher. Biggest downside factor: volatility/squeeze profile cuts both ways but the raw Score/SMP drives the negative thesis. Three main risks to the short: US-drone policy/defense catalysts, a retail-driven squeeze, and dilution-funded narrative extensions.
5. LPTH — LightPath Technologies, Inc. | OM Score −117.3 (SMP −165.9, Near Pass, 3/5; VSR 95.3, BDR 88.1, MCR 80.3, fwd EV/Sales 10x, ROIC −24.9%, SI 16%, Beta 2.9, ~−24%). Makes infrared optics and optical components, repositioned toward defense/imaging. The market sees a legacy optics maker chasing a defense-growth pivot. Bear case: deeply negative ROIC (−24.9%), a rich sales multiple, and negative forward EBITDA. Bull case (short risk): defense-imaging contracts and 16% short interest create squeeze potential. Biggest downside factor: squeeze/volatility profile aside, the negative returns (ROIC −24.9%) anchor the short. Three main risks to the short: a defense-optics contract win, squeeze on 16% SI, and execution on the germanium-free product pivot.
6. VOYG — Voyager Technologies, Inc. | OM Score −97.7 (SMP −147.6, Near Pass, 5/5; VSR 97.5, BDR 91.8, MCR 75.4, EQS 20.5, fwd FCF/EV −0.11, ROIC −18.8%, SI 16%, Beta 4.7, ~−20%). A space-infrastructure and defense-tech firm (Starlab station, defense systems) that IPO'd in 2025. The market prices it as a high-beta space/defense growth story. Bear case: full 5/5 short signature, negative free cash flow and ROIC, weak earnings quality (EQS 20.5). Bull case (short risk): the highest beta in the book (4.7) plus space/defense contract headlines make it explosively squeezy. Biggest downside factor: volatility/squeeze and cash burn (fwd FCF/EV −0.11). Three main risks to the short: NASA/defense award news, a space-sector momentum rally, and a squeeze on 16% short interest.
7. SNOW — Snowflake Inc. | OM Score −104.7 (SMP −262.6, Near Pass, 3/5; BDR 98.0, MCR 88.3, VSR 73.8, fwd EV/EBITDA 98x, fwd EV/Sales 17x, ROIC −24.4%, Beta 1.5, ~−21%). The leading cloud data-warehouse/AI-data platform. The market views it as a premium large-cap data-cloud compounder priced for perfection. Bear case: near-max behavioral dislocation (98.0), 98x forward EBITDA and 17x sales with negative ROIC. Bull case (short risk): durable ~30% revenue growth and AI-data tailwinds can sustain the premium; low short interest (5.5%) and beta (1.5) limit squeeze mechanics but make it a "grind-up" risk. Biggest downside factor: behavioral dislocation (BDR 98.0). Three main risks to the short: an AI-driven consumption re-acceleration, continued multiple support for quality software, and beat-and-raise quarters.
8. RBRK — Rubrik, Inc. | OM Score −71.2 (SMP −219.3, Near Pass, 3/5; BDR 96.5, MCR 87.2, VSR 79.4, fwd EV/EBITDA 336x, fwd EV/Sales 12x, ROIC −122%, Beta 2.0, ~−15%). A cyber-resilience/data-security (backup and recovery) SaaS. The market sees a fast-growing cybersecurity name riding ransomware-recovery demand. Bear case: an extreme 336x forward EBITDA and deeply negative ROIC (−122%) with high behavioral dislocation. Bull case (short risk): strong ARR growth and cyber-spend durability can keep momentum; secular tailwind is real. Biggest downside factor: multiple compression risk against absurd EBITDA multiple (MCR 87.2, 336x). Three main risks to the short: strong ARR/net-retention prints, cyber-sector re-rating, and post-lockup momentum.
9. HTFL — HeartFlow, Inc. | OM Score −135.0 (SMP −197.3, Near Pass, 4/5; BDR 91.4, VSR 84.7, MCR 82.3, EQS 31.1, CAS 7.8, ROIC −61.4%, HolyTrin 0.29, ~−28%). Provides AI-based non-invasive coronary artery analysis (FFR-CT) from CT scans. The market treats it as a recent-IPO medtech growth story. Bear case: 4/5 short signature, ROIC −61%, very weak capital allocation (CAS 7.8) and low Holy Trinity. Bull case (short risk): reimbursement expansion and clinical-guideline adoption could accelerate volumes. Biggest downside factor: cash-burn/returns profile (ROIC −61.4%). Three main risks to the short: a reimbursement/coverage win, guideline-driven adoption, and post-IPO volatility.
10. BFLY — Butterfly Network, Inc. | OM Score −104.4 (SMP −171.4, Near Pass, 3/5; VSR 92.3, BDR 84.3, MCR 83.8, fwd EV/Sales 17x, ROIC −32.3%, SI 12%, Beta 2.3, ~−21%). Makes handheld, semiconductor-based ("chip-on") point-of-care ultrasound. The market sees a still-unproven medtech disruptor. Bear case: negative ROIC, 17x sales, and elevated squeeze/dislocation. Bull case (short risk): device-adoption inflection or new AI features could re-rate it; 12% SI adds squeeze risk. Biggest downside factor: volatility/valuation (VSR 92.3, 17x sales). Three main risks to the short: an adoption/partnership catalyst, a squeeze on 12% SI, and new-product momentum.
11. FCEL — FuelCell Energy, Inc. | OM Score −117.6 (SMP −184.5, Near Pass, 5/5; VSR 96.1, BDR 84.5, MCR 78.3, EQS 22.8, CAS 4.4, fwd FCF/EV −0.06, ROIC −25.6%, SI 20%, Beta 2.6, HolyTrin 0.03, ~−24%). A stationary fuel-cell power-platform maker chronically unprofitable. The market treats it as a perennial hydrogen/clean-energy speculation. Bear case: full 5/5 signature, near-zero Holy Trinity (0.03), negative FCF and ROIC, weakest-tier capital allocation. Bull case (short risk): 20% short interest plus any hydrogen-policy or contract headline can spark a squeeze. Biggest downside factor: cash burn and capital destruction (CAS 4.4, ROIC −25.6%). Three main risks to the short: hydrogen-subsidy/policy news, a squeeze on 20% SI, and dilution-funded order announcements.
12. OUST — Ouster, Inc. | OM Score −101.2 (SMP −163.8, Near Pass, 4/5; VSR 90.4, BDR 86.0, MCR 82.6, fwd EV/Sales 13x, ROIC −17.0%, Beta 4.0, ~−21%). A digital-lidar maker for automotive, industrial, and robotics. The market sees a lidar consolidator still far from profitability. Bear case: negative ROIC, 13x sales, high beta (4.0) and 4/5 signature. Bull case (short risk): autonomy/robotics design-wins and lidar-sector sentiment can drive sharp rallies. Biggest downside factor: volatility/valuation (VSR 90.4). Three main risks to the short: a major lidar design-win, an AV/robotics sector rally, and high-beta squeeze moves.
13. NVTS — Navitas Semiconductor Corporation | OM Score −245.0 (SMP −385.0, Strict Pass, 4/5; VSR 95.7, MCR 85.0, BDR 71.7, fwd EV/Sales 52x, ROIC −52.1%, SI 15%, Beta 4.7, HolyTrin 0.15, ~−50%). Designs GaN and SiC power semiconductors (AI-datacenter power, fast charging). The market treats it as a high-beta AI-power-semi lottery ticket after a Nvidia-partnership pop. Bear case: the most negative OM Score in the book (−245), 52x sales, ROIC −52%, price ~2x the OM target. Bull case (short risk): the single biggest short risk here — AI-power-partnership headlines (e.g., 800V datacenter) plus 4.7 beta and 15% SI make it a squeeze machine. Biggest downside factor: raw Score/SMP extreme, but the practical driver is multiple compression (MCR 85.0, 52x sales). Three main risks to the short: an AI-power partnership/design-win, a semiconductor rally, and a violent squeeze.
14. SPCE — Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. | OM Score −164.9 (SMP −221.8, Near Pass, 5/5; VSR 98.6, EQS 12.1, CAS 2.5, fwd FCF/EV −0.48, ROIC −35.2%, SI 26%, Beta 3.7, HolyTrin 0.22, ~−34%). Space-tourism operator with minimal revenue and heavy cash burn ahead of next-gen spaceships. The market views it as a perennial cash-burning story stock. Bear case: full 5/5 signature, worst-tier earnings quality (12.1) and capital allocation (2.5), FCF/EV −0.48. Bull case (short risk): the highest squeeze risk in the book (VSR 98.6) with 26% short interest — any flight/manufacturing milestone can rip it. Biggest downside factor: catastrophic cash burn (fwd FCF/EV −0.48). Three main risks to the short: a Delta-class spaceship milestone, a squeeze on 26% SI, and equity raises that paradoxically spark momentum.
15. INDI — indie Semiconductor, Inc. | OM Score −118.5 (SMP −264.4, Near Pass, 5/5; VSR 98.4, EQS 11.2, fwd FCF/EV −0.08, ROIC −19.5%, SI 32%, Beta 3.2, ~−24%). An automotive-semiconductor (ADAS, radar, connectivity) supplier. The market sees an auto-chip growth story tied to design-win ramps. Bear case: 5/5 signature, weakest earnings quality (11.2), negative FCF/ROIC. Bull case (short risk): the highest short interest in the book (32%) plus a $6bn+ design-win backlog makes squeezes and backlog-conversion beats a real threat. Biggest downside factor: volatility/squeeze aside, negative cash generation drives the thesis. Three main risks to the short: backlog-to-revenue conversion beats, an auto-semi recovery, and a squeeze on 32% SI.
16. GTLB — GitLab Inc. | OM Score −41.4 (SMP −88.6, Composite, 3/5; BDR 96.1, VSR 88.2, MCR 78.5, EQS 65.3, fwd EV/EBITDA 39x, fwd EV/Sales 5x, ROIC −2.7%, Beta 1.7, ~−9%). A DevSecOps software platform. The market views it as a quality growth-software name that de-rated but stays richly valued. Bear case: high behavioral dislocation and a 39x EBITDA multiple. Bull case (short risk): this is a weaker short — decent EQS (65.3), only slightly negative ROIC, and a mild OM Score (−41.4); AI-coding tailwinds could re-accelerate growth. Biggest downside factor: behavioral dislocation (BDR 96.1). Three main risks to the short: AI-native DevOps demand, an M&A bid, and its relatively solid fundamentals limiting downside.
17. TSAT — Telesat Corporation | OM Score −38.2 (SMP −144.0, Composite, 4/5; MCR 96.5, VSR 86.7, BDR 76.6, fwd EV/Sales 14x, ROIC −7.1%, Beta 3.4, ~−8%). A Canadian satellite operator whose legacy GEO business is declining while it builds the Lightspeed LEO constellation. The market sees a high-capex, high-debt telecom bet on LEO. Bear case: the top multiple-compression score in the book (96.5) with negative ROIC and heavy capex ahead. Bull case (short risk): Lightspeed funding/contract milestones or government backing could re-rate it sharply. Biggest downside factor: multiple compression (MCR 96.5). Three main risks to the short: Lightspeed contract/financing news, government-connectivity awards, and a mild OM Score (−38.2) limiting the core signal.
18. PLSE — Pulse Biosciences, Inc. | OM Score −158.8 (SMP −298.8, Near Pass, 5/5; BDR 98.8, MCR 85.6, EQS 28.8, CAS 13.1, ROIC −73.1%, HolyTrin 0.28, ~−33%). A pre-commercial medtech developing nanosecond pulsed-field ("Nano-Pulse") ablation for cardiac and dermatologic uses. The market treats it as a binary, milestone-driven clinical story with negligible revenue. Bear case: 5/5 signature, ROIC −73%, near-max behavioral dislocation, and effectively no revenue base. Bull case (short risk): FDA clearances or clinical readouts can double it overnight; low short interest (4%) and beta (0.9) keep it a fundamental (not squeeze) short. Biggest downside factor: extreme cash burn/returns (ROIC −73.1%). Three main risks to the short: an FDA clearance or positive trial data, a well-capitalized-insider backstop (Robert Duggan), and headline-driven spikes.
19. RDW — Redwire Corporation | OM Score −56.0 (SMP −102.2, Near Pass, 4/5; VSR 96.5, BDR 84.9, MCR 73.3, ROIC −16.4%, SI 15%, Beta 4.3, ~−11%). A space-infrastructure firm (components, payloads, and — via Edge Autonomy — drones). The market sees a space/defense roll-up with lumpy contracts. Bear case: negative ROIC, high beta (4.3), 4/5 signature. Bull case (short risk): defense/space awards and the Edge Autonomy drone angle can drive squeezy rallies on 15% SI. Biggest downside factor: volatility/squeeze (VSR 96.5). Three main risks to the short: a space/defense contract catalyst, a squeeze on 15% SI, and a modest OM Score (−56.0).
20. CRWD — CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | OM Score −106.0 (SMP −295.9, Near Pass, 3/5; BDR 97.4, MCR 89.0, fwd EV/EBITDA 114x, fwd EV/Sales 35x, EQS 64.7, ROIC −0.6%, Beta 1.7, HolyTrin 0.82, ~−22%). The premier endpoint/cloud-security platform. The market views it as a best-in-class cybersecurity compounder at a premium multiple. Bear case: extreme valuation (114x EBITDA, 35x sales) and high behavioral dislocation. Bull case (short risk): this is a "quality" short — strong EQS (64.7), high Holy Trinity (0.82), near-breakeven ROIC, durable ~30% ARR growth, low SI (2.5%). Multiple can stay elevated for a long time. Biggest downside factor: multiple compression (MCR 89.0, 35x sales). Three main risks to the short: continued beat-and-raise execution, a cyber-sector re-rating, and premium-software multiple persistence.
21. AI — C3.ai, Inc. | OM Score −144.2 (SMP −205.1, Near Pass, 3/5; VSR 96.1, BDR 73.3, MCR 69.5, EQS 33.8, fwd FCF/EV −0.10, ROIC −58.4%, SI 30%, Beta 2.4, HolyTrin 0.01, ~−30%). An enterprise-AI application-software vendor with persistent losses and slowing growth. The market treats it as an "AI" ticker whose narrative outruns fundamentals. Bear case: near-zero Holy Trinity (0.01), ROIC −58%, negative FCF, and a very negative OM Score. Bull case (short risk): 30% short interest plus any AI-headline or partnership can force a squeeze. Biggest downside factor: capital destruction (ROIC −58.4%). Three main risks to the short: AI-sentiment spikes, a large partnership/contract, and a squeeze on 30% SI.
22. S — SentinelOne, Inc. | OM Score −61.7 (SMP −139.4, Near Pass, 3/5; BDR 95.6, MCR 80.4, EQS 55.0, fwd EV/Sales 5.8x, ROIC −21.3%, Beta 1.2, ~−13%). An AI-native endpoint-security platform competing with CrowdStrike. The market sees a second-tier cyber grower still losing money. Bear case: negative ROIC and high behavioral dislocation. Bull case (short risk): weaker short — decent EQS (55) and FRM (57.5), low beta (1.2), and cyber tailwinds; a take-out bid is a recurring rumor. Biggest downside factor: behavioral dislocation (BDR 95.6). Three main risks to the short: an acquisition bid, share gains vs. peers, and cyber-sector strength.
23. AEVA — Aeva Technologies, Inc. | OM Score −69.4 (SMP −167.7, Near Pass, 5/5; MCR 84.6, VSR 87.5, EQS 14.9, CAS 3.7, fwd EV/Sales 30x, ROIC −479%, Beta 4.3, HolyTrin 0.25, ~−14%). An FMCW-lidar developer for automotive and industrial sensing. The market sees a pre-scale lidar story on design-win hopes. Bear case: catastrophic ROIC (−479%), 30x sales, weakest-tier quality/capital-allocation, 5/5 signature. Bull case (short risk): OEM/industrial design-wins and 4.3 beta make it prone to sharp rallies. Biggest downside factor: capital destruction (ROIC −479%). Three main risks to the short: a major automotive design-win, a lidar-sector rally, and high-beta squeeze moves.
24. KMTS — Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd. | OM Score −98.8 (SMP −158.1, Near Pass, 5/5; BDR 86.2, MCR 80.8, VSR 74.0, EQS 29.7, CAS 5.7, fwd EV/Sales 11x, ROIC −47.3%, HolyTrin 0.28, ~−20%). Makes the ASSURE wearable cardioverter defibrillator, challenging ZOLL's WCD monopoly (IPO'd March 2025, ~50% revenue growth but widening losses). The market sees a high-growth medtech disruptor. Bear case: 5/5 signature, ROIC −47%, weak capital allocation, 11x sales while unprofitable. Bull case (short risk): ~50% revenue growth and monopoly-disruption narrative with analyst Buy ratings ($27 targets) could drive continued momentum. Biggest downside factor: cash burn/returns (ROIC −47.3%). Three main risks to the short: continued 50%-plus growth prints, WCD share gains vs. ZOLL, and reimbursement/coverage wins.
25. MDB — MongoDB, Inc. | OM Score −56.6 (SMP −179.3, Near Pass, 2/5; BDR 95.9, MCR 86.1, CAS 44.1, EQS 63.0, fwd EV/EBITDA 54x, fwd EV/Sales 11x, ROIC −1.0%, Beta 2.1, HolyTrin 0.75, ~−12%). The leading document-database (Atlas cloud) platform. The market views it as a core modern-data-stack name with an AI-workload tailwind. Bear case: 54x forward EBITDA and high behavioral dislocation. Bull case (short risk): the weakest short in the book — only a 2/5 signature, solid EQS (63.0) and FRM (61.0), near-breakeven ROIC, high Holy Trinity (0.75), and Atlas/AI-driven consumption growth. Biggest downside factor: behavioral dislocation vs. valuation (BDR 95.9). Three main risks to the short: an AI-workload consumption re-acceleration, quality-software multiple support, and beat-and-raise quarters.
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