Welcome to this week’s Oddsmaker Top 25 Best and Worst. First, a brief update on the recently weekly performance of the Oddsmaker Top 25 Best and Worst Picks:
Average weekly long/short spread of +7.9%, positive in 14 of 19 weeks. Four weeks were negative (the worst, 7-27, at −9.0%), and the newest week (10-19) is flat at 0.0%.
The long book was mixed over the six most recent weeks, ranging from −4% (9-14) to +5% (9-28), and was flat or down in four of those six.
Longs beat SPY by an average +1.4% per week, with a stated long hit rate of 54%. Over the last six weeks, excess return ranged from −6% (9-14) to +5% (9-28).
Widest spread: 9-28 at +25% (longs +5%, shorts −20%). It was part of a three-week run with 9-21 at +17% and 10-5 at +22%.
The short book’s contribution is concentrated in late September and early October. Shorts returned −17%, −20% and −20% in the 9-21, 9-28 and 10-5 weeks, then −2% and 0.0% in the two most recent weeks. The short hit rate is 68%, with an average short return of −6.1% per week.
Top 25 Best Stocks In The Market Now
#1 MU – Micron Technology, Inc. | OM Score 132.1 | Strict Pass, 5/5 signature, Super Multiple 251.6, Trifecta Ratio 1.00. Micron makes DRAM, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and NAND flash for AI data centers, PCs and phones. The market treats it as a core AI-memory winner: shares sit near their 200-day average while sell-side targets imply ~74% upside. Bull: ROIC 79%, FRM 99 and RAVG 99 point to compounding earnings and rising estimates at just 3.7x forward EV/EBITDA. Bear: memory is cyclical, and peak-margin earnings make low multiples look cheaper than they are. Biggest upside factor: estimate revisions (RAVG 99), analysts are still chasing the numbers. Risks: (1) HBM/DRAM pricing rolls over as supply catches up; (2) a pause in hyperscaler capex; (3) data flags (implied margin >70%, forward-revenue mismatch) mean forward multiples may look lower than they are.
#2 STNG – Scorpio Tankers Inc. | OM Score 110.6 | Near Pass, 5/5 signature, Super Multiple 221.3, Trifecta Ratio 0.99. Scorpio runs one of the largest fleets of modern product tankers carrying gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. The market likes it: TRS 77, shares ~10% above their 200-day average, and targets still ~18% higher. Bull: CAS 93 with net cash ~28% of market cap, plus a 30% forward FCF yield at 4.4x EV/EBITDA. Bear: rates are spot-driven and can halve quickly, so today’s cash flow may be peak-cycle. Biggest upside factor: capital allocation (CAS 93), a net-cash balance sheet gives room for buybacks and dividends. Risks: (1) product tanker rates normalize as new ships deliver; (2) shifts in refinery and trade routes shorten voyages; (3) geopolitical easing reduces ton-mile disruption.
#3 SLDE – Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. | OM Score 106.1 | Near Pass, 4/5 signature, Super Multiple 233.9, Trifecta Ratio 1.00. Slide is a tech-driven Florida homeowners and condo insurer. The market loves it: TRS 97, shares 37% above their 200-day average, and the stock now trades ~3% above the average sell-side target. Bull: EQS 98 (top earnings quality in the book), ROIC 52%, net cash ~36% of market cap, all at 2.9x EV/EBITDA. Bear: the stock has already run past its targets, and Florida underwriting profits can vanish in one storm season. Biggest upside factor: earnings quality (EQS 98). Risks: (1) a major hurricane hit to the Florida book; (2) rising reinsurance costs at renewal; (3) no analyst revision data and a TTM-fallback flag, so the forward EBITDA multiple is really trailing.
#4 INSW – International Seaways, Inc. | OM Score 108.7 | Near Pass, 5/5 signature, Super Multiple 207.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.96. International Seaways owns crude and product tankers. Momentum is strong (TRS 91, shares ~22% above their 200-day average) and targets sit ~16% higher. Bull: RAVG 99.6, the strongest estimate revisions in the long book, plus FRM 96, a 22% forward FCF yield and 4.6x EV/EBITDA. Bear: like all tankers it rides spot rates, and the stock has already rerated. Biggest upside factor: estimate revisions (RAVG 99.6). Risks: (1) tanker rates fall as fleet supply grows; (2) a weak OLI 30 means little insider or ownership support; (3) the implied-margin >70% flag means the EBITDA multiple may be understated.
#5 WDC – Western Digital Corporation | OM Score 120.7 | Near Pass (new this week), 5/5 signature, Super Multiple 212.0, Trifecta Ratio 1.00. After separating from Sandisk, Western Digital is a pure hard-disk-drive maker selling high-capacity drives to cloud data centers. Fundamentals and price disagree: TRS 9, shares 27% below their 200-day average, but targets imply ~79% upside. Bull: RAVG 99, EQS 94, FRM 94 and ROIC 93%, with AI data growth driving nearline storage demand. Bear: at 9.3x EV/EBITDA it is pricier than most of the book, and the tape is broken. Biggest upside factor: the gap between rising estimates and a falling price. Risks: (1) momentum keeps deteriorating; (2) hyperscalers digest inventory and pause drive orders; (3) the multiple compresses if storage pricing softens.
#6 MGY – Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | OM Score 110.8 | Near Pass, 5/5 signature, Super Multiple 226.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.99. Magnolia produces oil and gas in South Texas (Eagle Ford and Giddings) and is known for low leverage and disciplined spending. The market is neutral (TRS 46), with targets ~26% above the price. Bull: RAVG 98.6, OLI 77 (strong ownership and insider support), a 15% FCF yield at 3.3x EV/EBITDA and near-zero net debt. Bear: forward revenue growth is just 11%, so returns depend on oil prices more than growth. Biggest upside factor: estimate revisions (RAVG 98.6). Risks: (1) a drop in oil prices; (2) weaker Giddings well results; (3) the implied-margin >70% flag may understate the true multiple.
#7 SNDK – Sandisk Corporation | OM Score 123.8 | Near Pass, 5/5 signature, Super Multiple 244.2, Trifecta Ratio 1.00. Sandisk, spun off from Western Digital, makes NAND flash and SSDs for data centers, PCs and phones. The stock is pulling back: TRS 18, shares 18% below their 200-day average and down 4% over 10 days, while targets imply ~72% upside. Bull: FRM 99, EQS 96, ROIC 84%, forward revenue growth of 175%, and 4.4x EV/EBITDA with a 17% FCF yield. Bear: NAND is among the most volatile commodity chip markets, and the growth is a pricing cycle. Biggest upside factor: forward revenue and margins (FRM 99). Risks: (1) NAND prices turn as capacity returns; (2) momentum stays weak; (3) the implied-margin >70% flag.
#8 HCI – HCI Group, Inc. | OM Score 120.4 | Near Pass, 4/5 signature, Super Multiple 230.7, Trifecta Ratio 0.98. HCI is a Florida homeowners insurer (including TypTap) with an in-house insurance software arm, Exzeo. The market is enthusiastic: TRS 88, shares 18% above their 200-day average, and targets ~18% higher. Bull: EQS 95, ROIC 28%, net cash ~32% of market cap and 3.9x EV/EBITDA. Bear: one bad hurricane season can erase a year of earnings, and the stock prices in a benign one. Biggest upside factor: earnings quality (EQS 95) backed by a cash-heavy balance sheet. Risks: (1) Florida hurricane losses; (2) higher reinsurance costs; (3) no analyst revision data and a TTM-fallback flag, so the forward multiple is really trailing.
#9 AUGO – Aura Minerals Inc. | OM Score 113.1 | Near Pass, 5/5 signature, Super Multiple 233.4, Trifecta Ratio 1.00. Aura is a mid-tier gold and copper producer with mines in Brazil, Honduras and Mexico. Shares fell 13% over 10 days but sit near their 200-day average, with targets ~35% higher. Bull: FRM 96, RAVG 95 and forward revenue growth of 89% as new mines ramp, at 4.4x EV/EBITDA. Bear: the recent drop shows how tied it is to gold, and OLI 29 means little ownership support. Biggest upside factor: production growth (FRM 96). Risks: (1) a further pullback in gold; (2) Latin American political, tax and permitting risk; (3) delays or cost overruns ramping new mines.
#10 CMCL – Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc | OM Score 145.0 | Strict Pass, 5/5 signature, highest Score (145.0) and Super Multiple (260.5) in the book, Trifecta Ratio 0.97. Caledonia operates the Blanket gold mine in Zimbabwe and is developing a second project. Shares fell 10% over 10 days, yet targets imply ~111% upside. Bull: RAVG 98, CAS 85, net cash ~13% of market cap and the cheapest multiple in the book, 2.4x EV/EBITDA. Bear: forward FCF/EV is -30% as development spending eats cash, and the jurisdiction caps the multiple. Biggest upside factor: the strength of its core signals (Score 145, SMP 260). Risks: (1) Zimbabwe currency, royalty and political risk; (2) negative free cash flow during the build; (3) a $411M market cap brings thin liquidity and gold-price sensitivity.
#11 SM – SM Energy Company | OM Score 99.2 | Near Pass, 4/5 signature, Super Multiple 217.0, Trifecta Ratio 0.99. SM produces oil and gas in the Permian, South Texas and Utah’s Uinta Basin. The market is buying it: TRS 91, shares ~23% above their 200-day average, and targets ~17% higher. Bull: RAVG 97, FRM 93, forward revenue growth of 65% and 3.0x EV/EBITDA with a 13% FCF yield. Bear: CAS 43, the weakest balance sheet among the top 11, with net debt ~71% of market cap and ROIC of only 7%. Biggest upside factor: estimate revisions plus momentum (RAVG 97, TRS 91). Risks: (1) leverage amplifies any oil-price drop; (2) execution on the growth assets; (3) a momentum reversal after a 23% run above trend.
#12 KYIV – Kyivstar Group Ltd. | OM Score 105.0 | Near Pass, 5/5 signature, Super Multiple 201.7, Trifecta Ratio 0.93. Kyivstar is Ukraine’s largest mobile operator, controlled by VEON. The stock rose 7% over 10 days. Note: its Price/SS Target (0.015) is a currency artifact (targets are in hryvnia), so ignore it as an upside signal. Bull: RAVG 93, FRM 86, 4.2x EV/EBITDA and a 10% FCF yield, a cheap way to own Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction. Bear: wartime operations and a weak currency make dollar earnings fragile. Biggest upside factor: a ceasefire or reconstruction rerating on top of rising estimates (RAVG 93). Risks: (1) war damage to infrastructure and customers; (2) hryvnia devaluation; (3) a concentrated controlling shareholder and limited float.
#13 PARR – Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | OM Score 102.9 | Near Pass (new this week), 5/5 signature, Super Multiple 202.7, Trifecta Ratio 0.90. Par Pacific runs refineries in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies, plus retail and logistics. The market has rewarded it (TRS 87, shares 17% above their 200-day average), with targets ~15% higher. Bull: RAVG 98.5, ROIC 29%, a 27% forward FCF yield and just 0.56x EV/Sales and 3.4x EV/EBITDA. Bear: refining margins are among the most volatile in energy, and net debt is ~25% of market cap. Biggest upside factor: free cash flow yield (27%) as estimates rise. Risks: (1) crack spreads compress; (2) an unplanned outage at a key refinery; (3) leverage limits flexibility in a downturn.
#14 AII – American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. | OM Score 115.6 | Near Pass, 4/5 signature, Super Multiple 244.8, Trifecta Ratio 1.00. American Integrity is a Florida-focused homeowners insurer. The market is very bullish: TRS 96, shares 36% above their 200-day average, and the price is ~3% above the sell-side target. Bull: EQS 94, net cash ~45% of market cap (the most cash-heavy name in the book), ROIC 19% and 2.5x EV/EBITDA. Bear: the stock has already passed analyst targets, and Florida earnings are storm-dependent. Biggest upside factor: a cash-rich balance sheet (CAS 86). Risks: (1) hurricane losses; (2) reinsurance repricing; (3) OLI 10 and a $565M market cap point to thin liquidity, with no revision data and a TTM-fallback flag.
#15 CHRD – Chord Energy Corporation | OM Score 104.0 | Near Pass, 4/5 signature, Super Multiple 208.0, Trifecta Ratio 0.93. Chord is one of the largest oil producers in North Dakota’s Williston Basin (Bakken). Momentum is solid (TRS 83, shares 14% above their 200-day average), with targets ~16% higher. Bull: RAVG 98, a 16.5% forward FCF yield and 3.0x EV/EBITDA, with net debt only ~10% of market cap. Bear: ROIC is just 6% and EQS 57, so cash flow depends on oil prices rather than standout efficiency. Biggest upside factor: estimate revisions (RAVG 98). Risks: (1) lower oil prices; (2) shrinking Bakken drilling inventory; (3) weak returns on capital limit its rerating potential.
#16 DEC – Diversified Energy Company | OM Score 129.1 | Near Pass, 2/5 signature, Super Multiple 205.8, Trifecta Ratio 0.67 (weakest validation in the book). Diversified buys and operates mature, low-decline natural gas wells, mostly in Appalachia, and retires them over time. Momentum is neutral (TRS 53), with targets ~41% higher. Bull: Score 129, RAVG 98.5, FRM 95, an 18% forward FCF yield and 3.3x EV/EBITDA. Bear: net debt is ~2.8x its market cap (CAS 38), so equity holders are highly leveraged to gas prices. Biggest upside factor: acquisition-driven forward growth (FRM 95) as estimates rise. Risks: (1) debt load and refinancing costs; (2) rising well-plugging liabilities; (3) a drop in natural gas prices.
#17 STRL – Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. | OM Score 125.8 | Strict Pass (new this week), 5/5 signature, Super Multiple 209.4, Trifecta Ratio 0.98. Sterling prepares sites for data centers and factories, and also builds transportation and residential projects. The tape is weak: TRS 4, shares 40% below their 200-day average and down 13% over 10 days, but targets imply ~127% upside. Bull: passes all four backtested gates, with FRM 91, CAS 86, RAVG 86 and ROIC 29%. Bear: at 10.6x EV/EBITDA it has one of the highest multiples in the book, and the market is pricing in a data-center slowdown. Biggest upside factor: the huge gap between price and targets while estimates hold. Risks: (1) momentum keeps falling; (2) data-center capex is cut; (3) the multiple compresses further.
#18 EVER – EverQuote, Inc. | OM Score 110.8 | Near Pass, 4/5 signature, Super Multiple 210.9, Trifecta Ratio 0.95. EverQuote runs an online insurance marketplace, mostly selling auto-insurance leads to carriers and agents. The market is neutral (TRS 61), with targets ~33% higher. Bull: CAS 97 (highest in the book), ROIC 53%, net cash ~24% of market cap, a 16% FCF yield and 4.9x EV/EBITDA. Bear: revenue depends on auto insurers’ ad budgets, which swing hard with their profits. Biggest upside factor: capital allocation (CAS 97). Risks: (1) carriers cut marketing spend; (2) reliance on a few large carriers; (3) OLI 17 and no revision data mean little ownership or analyst support.
#19 HL – Hecla Mining Company | OM Score 126.3 | Near Pass on Score only (Super Multiple 170.7, below the 200 gate), 3/5 signature, Trifecta Ratio 0.70. Hecla is the largest silver producer in the US, with mines in Alaska, Idaho and Canada’s Yukon. Shares are 20% below their 200-day average (TRS 16) and fell 9% over 10 days, while targets imply ~57% upside. Bull: FRM 95, EQS 87, CAS 86 and forward revenue growth of 90%. Bear: RAVG 47 (estimates aren’t rising) and 9.8x EV/EBITDA make it the weakest-validated mining name. Biggest upside factor: silver-driven revenue growth (FRM 95). Risks: (1) silver prices fall; (2) momentum keeps weakening; (3) its Super Multiple stays below the gate.
#20 NEM – Newmont Corporation | OM Score 111.9 | Near Pass, 4/5 signature, Super Multiple 209.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.98. Newmont is the world’s largest gold miner, with operations on five continents. Shares fell 8% over 10 days, with targets ~28% higher. Bull: EQS 86, CAS 85, ROIC 20%, a 10% FCF yield and a $113B scale advantage at 6.3x EV/EBITDA. Bear: RAVG 4.1: analysts are cutting estimates, the weakest revision score among the top 25. Biggest upside factor: balance sheet and earnings quality (EQS 86, CAS 85). Risks: (1) estimate cuts continue; (2) gold retreats from its highs; (3) cost inflation and execution issues across a large portfolio.
#21 AU – AngloGold Ashanti plc | OM Score 103.5 | Near Pass, 4/5 signature, Super Multiple 212.4, Trifecta Ratio 0.99. AngloGold mines gold across Africa, Australia and the Americas, including a growing Nevada business. Shares fell 8% over 10 days (TRS 30), with targets ~40% higher. Bull: EQS 91, FRM 93, forward revenue growth of 55%, OLI 78 and 5.4x EV/EBITDA. Bear: RAVG 4.8, analysts are cutting numbers even as the model likes the fundamentals. Biggest upside factor: forward revenue and margins (FRM 93). Risks: (1) continued estimate cuts; (2) a lower gold price; (3) political and fiscal risk in its African host countries.
#22 VFF – Village Farms International, Inc. | OM Score 128.3 | Near Pass on Score only (Super Multiple 193.0, below 200), 2/5 signature, Trifecta Ratio 0.62. Village Farms grows greenhouse produce and cannabis in Canada and the Netherlands. Momentum is neutral (TRS 61), but targets imply ~127% upside from a $2.58 share price. Bull: Score 128, CAS 78, 5.1x EV/EBITDA and growing international cannabis sales. Bear: EQS 48 and ROIC 6.5% are the weakest quality metrics among the top 25. Biggest upside factor: the gap to analyst targets. Risks: (1) cannabis price compression and regulation; (2) low earnings quality; (3) a $315M penny stock with high volatility.
#23 MNTN – MNTN, Inc. | OM Score 113.0 | Near Pass, 4/5 signature, Super Multiple 216.1, Trifecta Ratio 0.95. MNTN sells connected-TV performance advertising software, mainly to small and mid-sized brands. Shares are soft (TRS 37, down 6% over 10 days), with targets implying ~90% upside. Bull: CAS 95, net cash ~33% of market cap, a 21% forward FCF yield, ROIC 20% and 4.2x EV/EBITDA. Bear: a young public company in a crowded ad-tech market, with OLI 16 and no revision data. Biggest upside factor: cash-rich capital allocation (CAS 95) combined with the target gap. Risks: (1) ad budgets shrink in a slowdown; (2) competition from larger CTV platforms; (3) thin institutional ownership and analyst coverage.
#24 QNST – QuinStreet, Inc. | OM Score 108.8 | Near Pass, 4/5 signature, Super Multiple 204.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.94. QuinStreet is a performance-marketing company that generates customer leads, mostly for insurance and financial services. Momentum is solid (TRS 69), with targets ~41% higher. Bull: CAS 86, ROIC 25%, a 14% FCF yield, 5.8x EV/EBITDA and just 0.6x EV/Sales. Bear: low gross margins, and heavy exposure to auto-insurance ad cycles. Biggest upside factor: capital allocation (CAS 86). Risks: (1) insurance carriers pull back on marketing; (2) AI search changes disrupt its traffic sources; (3) OLI 17 and no revision data leave little analyst or ownership support.
#25 ELA – Envela Corporation | OM Score 130.2 | Near Pass on Score only (Super Multiple 189.3, below 200), 4/5 signature, Trifecta Ratio 0.88. Envela runs a recommerce business: luxury jewelry and bullion retail, plus electronics recycling and IT asset disposal. The tape is broken (TRS 4, shares 39% below their 200-day average), but targets imply ~118% upside. Bull: Score 130, CAS 91, EQS 82, ROIC 26% and forward revenue growth of 48%. Bear: at 12.7x EV/EBITDA it is the most expensive name in the book, and it barely made the list. Biggest upside factor: the target gap while fundamentals hold. Risks: (1) momentum keeps falling; (2) bullion and luxury volumes swing with metal prices; (3) a $292M market cap brings liquidity risk, and HRTG would replace it if R4 changes.
Top 25 Worst Stocks In The Market Now
#1 AI – C3.ai, Inc. | OM Score -237.4 | Near Pass, 3/5 signature, Super Multiple -299.3, Trifecta Ratio 0.19. C3.ai sells enterprise AI application software to industrial, energy and government customers. Traders have bid it up 15% over 10 days, and it now trades 46% above the OM target and 31% above the average sell-side target. Bear: forward revenue is expected to fall 37%, ROIC is -55%, and FRM 1.8 is near the bottom of the universe. Bull: net cash ~30% of market cap and a strategic AI label can keep buyers interested. Biggest downside factor: shrinking revenue against a stretched price (MCR 90, BDR 98.5). Risks to the short: (1) short interest 26% with beta 2.0 sets up a squeeze; (2) its cash pile and AI brand make it a takeover candidate; (3) a single large government or partner contract could reset the story.
#2 RBRK – Rubrik, Inc. | OM Score -94.9 | Near Pass (new this week), 2/5 signature, Super Multiple -259.7, Trifecta Ratio 0.74. Rubrik sells cloud data backup and cyber-recovery software. The market is enthusiastic: shares rose 21% over 10 days, sit 62% above their 200-day average, and trade 11% above sell-side targets. Bear: 268x forward EV/EBITDA and 14.1x EV/Sales, with ROIC of -41%. Bull: FRM 90 and forward revenue growth of 42% make it one of the fastest-growing names in security. Biggest downside factor: valuation stretch after the run (BDR 98.3). Risks to the short: (1) beta 2.4 means violent moves either way; (2) growth keeps beating estimates; (3) security software has been an active M&A sector, and a $27B company is a plausible target.
#3 SPCE – Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. | OM Score -112.5 | Near Pass, 5/5 signature, Super Multiple -181.9, Trifecta Ratio 0.00. Virgin Galactic is building its next-generation spaceships for suborbital tourism after pausing commercial flights. The market has largely given up: shares are 17% below their 200-day average, and the stock trades at a $2.52 price. Bear: EQS 1.9, FRM 0.8, ROIC -35% and a -65% forward FCF yield: it burns most of its value each year. Bull: sell-side targets still sit ~39% above the price if the new fleet launches on time. Biggest downside factor: cash burn versus market cap (FCF/EV -0.65), which points to more dilution. Risks to the short: (1) short interest 24% and beta 4.0; (2) a successful test flight can spark a rally; (3) a $373M market cap makes borrowing costly and liquidity thin.
#4 NN – NextNav Inc. | OM Score -105.0 | Near Pass, 3/5 signature, Super Multiple -245.0, Trifecta Ratio 0.00. NextNav develops 3D positioning and a GPS backup system, and holds valuable 900 MHz spectrum. Bulls trade it as a spectrum and policy story; sell-side targets sit ~3x the share price. Bear: MCR 99.5 (near-maximum multiple-compression risk), 405x forward EV/Sales, forward revenue falling 37% and ROIC -40%. Bull: if regulators approve its spectrum plan, the licenses could be worth far more than today’s $1.7B market cap. Biggest downside factor: a valuation built almost entirely on regulatory hope (EV/Sales 405x). Risks to the short: (1) a favorable FCC ruling could double the stock overnight; (2) beta 2.6 with 13% short interest; (3) a spectrum sale or partnership that crystallizes asset value.
#5 EAF – GrafTech International Ltd. | OM Score -112.5 | Near Pass (new this week), 5/5 signature, Super Multiple -177.6, Trifecta Ratio 0.19. GrafTech makes graphite electrodes used in electric-arc steel furnaces. Shares jumped 44% over 10 days on a Q3 revenue beat and cost cuts, and now trade 14% above sell-side targets. Bear: CAS 4.1 with net debt ~4.7x market cap, EQS 7.2 and 26x forward EV/EBITDA on depressed earnings. Bull: electrode pricing is recovering and cost savings are flowing through, giving it operating leverage. Biggest downside factor: the debt load (CAS 4.1), which gives equity holders little margin of safety. Risks to the short: (1) beta 2.8 and fresh positive momentum (BDR 99.0); (2) a sustained electrode price recovery rerates earnings; (3) a $229M market cap makes the borrow tight.
#6 HTZ – Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. | OM Score -65.2 | Near Pass (new this week), 3/5 signature, Super Multiple -164.8, Trifecta Ratio 0.61. Hertz rents cars in the US and abroad and is mid-turnaround on fleet costs. Shares rose 11% over 10 days but sit 44% below their 200-day average. Bear: CAS 13, net debt ~28x market cap (mostly fleet debt), 45.6x EV/EBITDA and ROIC near zero. Bull: used-car prices and fleet depreciation are improving, and small gains in margin have an outsized effect on a $727M equity. Biggest downside factor: extreme leverage (net debt/market cap 28x). Risks to the short: (1) short interest 35%, the highest in the book, with beta 3.2, prime squeeze conditions; (2) meme-stock trading history; (3) a used-car price spike lifts residual values and earnings.
#7 HTFL – HeartFlow, Inc. | OM Score -160.9 | Near Pass, 3/5 signature, Super Multiple -240.7, Trifecta Ratio 0.30. HeartFlow uses AI to turn coronary CT scans into 3D blood-flow maps that guide heart-disease treatment. The market is excited: shares rose 18% over 10 days, sit 57% above their 200-day average, and trade 12% above sell-side targets. Bear: 17x forward EV/Sales, negative EBITDA and ROIC of -61%, the weakest in the top 10. Bull: forward revenue growth of 43% and expanding reimbursement for CT-based testing. Biggest downside factor: price stretch after the run (BDR 98.6, Price/OM Target 1.45). Risks to the short: (1) new reimbursement or guideline wins keep momentum going; (2) a medtech acquirer could buy it; (3) strong growth may justify a premium multiple longer than expected.
#8 NVTS – Navitas Semiconductor Corporation | OM Score -196.5 | Near Pass, 3/5 signature, Super Multiple -299.8, Trifecta Ratio 0.18. Navitas designs gallium-nitride and silicon-carbide power chips for chargers, data centers and EVs. Shares are 45% below their 200-day average, but the stock still trades at 26.6x forward EV/Sales. Bear: forward revenue is expected to fall 46%, FRM 1.3, MCR 98.8 and ROIC -52%. Bull: AI data-center power designs could turn GaN into a growth market, and targets sit ~68% above the price. Biggest downside factor: shrinking revenue against a premium sales multiple (MCR 98.8). Risks to the short: (1) beta 4.3 with 18% short interest (VSR 97); (2) a major data-center design win; (3) net cash ~25% of market cap lowers dilution risk.
#9 CDZI – Cadiz Inc. | OM Score -165.5 | Near Pass, 5/5 signature, Super Multiple -297.8, Trifecta Ratio 0.00. Cadiz owns water rights and land over a Mojave Desert aquifer and is building pipelines to supply Southern California. Shares rose 10% over 10 days. Bear: EQS 2.1, FRM 1.9, MCR 98.7, 38x forward EV/Sales, ROIC -34% and net debt ~31% of market cap. Bull: sell-side targets sit ~142% above the price on the value of its water supply, if contracts and permits come through. Biggest downside factor: a valuation that depends on projects not yet producing revenue (EV/Sales 38x). Risks to the short: (1) a signed water-supply or pipeline contract would rerate it sharply; (2) California drought headlines drive speculative buying; (3) a $367M market cap makes it thin and hard to borrow.
#10 VIA – Via Transportation, Inc. | OM Score -59.3 | Near Pass, 3/5 signature, Super Multiple -212.8, Trifecta Ratio 0.35. Via sells software and operates on-demand public transit, paratransit and school-bus routing for cities. Shares rose 14% over 10 days and sit 69% above their 200-day average. Bear: 436x forward EV/EBITDA, ROIC -21% and BDR 92.9 after a sharp run. Bull: forward revenue growth of 29% on long-term government contracts gives it sticky, visible revenue. Biggest downside factor: extreme valuation stretch (EV/EBITDA 436x). Risks to the short: (1) momentum is strong and trend-following money is in it; (2) big municipal contract wins; (3) net cash ~11% of market cap means no near-term funding pressure.
#11 ASST – Strive, Inc. | OM Score -115.5 | Near Pass, 4/5 signature, Super Multiple -255.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.28. Strive is a bitcoin treasury company built around Vivek Ramaswamy’s asset manager; its Health Care tag comes from an acquired medical-device business. Shares rose 13% over 10 days and sit 48% above their 200-day average. Bear: ROIC of -142%, 272x forward EV/Sales and a share price driven by bitcoin and premium-to-holdings trading. Bull: sell-side targets sit ~51% higher, and a bitcoin rally lifts the whole sector. Biggest downside factor: a valuation tied to a premium over bitcoin holdings that can collapse fast. Risks to the short: (1) a bitcoin rally; (2) short interest 26%, beta 2.7, a classic squeeze setup; (3) further share issuance used to buy bitcoin can push the premium higher, not lower.
#12 UWMC – UWM Holdings Corporation | OM Score -83.8 | Near Pass (new this week), 5/5 signature, Super Multiple -141.0, Trifecta Ratio 0.04. UWM is the largest US wholesale mortgage lender, working through independent brokers. Shares jumped 37% over 10 days after it announced a $1.8B mortgage-servicing sale and debt-paydown plan with a preliminary Q3 profit. Bear: CAS 14, net debt ~31x market cap, 18x EV/EBITDA, ROIC near zero and EQS 14. Bull: lower mortgage rates drive refinancing volume, and the debt-paydown plan reduces risk. Biggest downside factor: leverage and earnings tied to the rate cycle (MCR 82). Risks to the short: (1) short interest 29%; (2) mortgage rates fall and refinancing booms; (3) further asset sales or deleveraging news extends the rally.
#13 AMPL – Amplitude, Inc. | OM Score -75.5 | Near Pass (new this week), 2/5 signature, Super Multiple -223.0, Trifecta Ratio 0.65. Amplitude sells product analytics software that shows companies how users behave in their apps. Shares rose 18% over 10 days, sit 72% above their 200-day average, and trade 8% above sell-side targets. Bear: 69x forward EV/EBITDA, ROIC -46% and BDR 97.4 after a sharp rerating. Bull: FRM 71, forward revenue growth of 18% and net cash ~7% of market cap. Biggest downside factor: price stretch after a 72% run above trend (BDR 97.4). Risks to the short: (1) AI-analytics product launches extend the rally; (2) small-cap software is a frequent private-equity target; (3) beta 2.0.
#14 NTSK – Netskope, Inc. | OM Score -160.2 | Near Pass (new this week), 4/5 signature, Super Multiple -216.9, Trifecta Ratio 0.71. Netskope sells cloud security (secure access and zero-trust networking) to enterprises. Shares jumped 33% over 10 days, are 88% above their 200-day average and trade 24% above sell-side targets. Bear: ROIC of -146%, 9.8x forward EV/Sales, EBITDA still deeply negative, and BDR 99.5, the highest in the short book. Bull: FRM 78 and forward revenue growth of 30% in one of the fastest-growing security segments. Biggest downside factor: price stretch (BDR 99.5). Risks to the short: (1) no deal news was found, but a large-cap security acquirer could step in; (2) beta 2.5; (3) strong earnings beats can keep growth stocks expensive.
#15 SGRY – Surgery Partners, Inc. | OM Score -79.2 | Near Pass (new this week), 3/5 signature, Super Multiple -91.6, Trifecta Ratio 0.28. DEAL PENDING: HealthSpan Partners agreed to take it private at $23.50 a share in cash, expected to close in Q1 2027. Recommend removing it from the book. Surgery Partners runs ambulatory surgery centers and surgical hospitals. Shares jumped 58% over 10 days to $23.06, which drives its BDR of 98.8. Bear: net debt ~1.9x market cap, CAS 17 and ROIC near zero. Bull: the cash deal sets a floor near $23.50. Biggest downside factor: only a deal break, since the price is now pinned. Risks to the short: (1) the deal closes and you lose the ~1.9% spread; (2) a higher bid; (3) there is little to gain unless the deal fails.
#16 SDGR – Schrödinger, Inc. | OM Score -79.2 | Near Pass, 4/5 signature, Super Multiple -145.4, Trifecta Ratio 0.03. Schrödinger sells physics-based drug-discovery software and develops its own drug pipeline. Shares rose 8% over 10 days, and it is back in the book after its Super Multiple returned this week. Bear: EQS 12.6, negative EBITDA, a -10% forward FCF yield and ROIC -12%. Bull: net cash ~17% of market cap, a software business that is growing, and sell-side targets ~23% above the price. Biggest downside factor: weak earnings quality and ongoing cash burn (EQS 12.6, FCF/EV -0.10). Risks to the short: (1) positive clinical data from its pipeline; (2) pharma partnership milestones; (3) beta 2.0 with 13.5% short interest.
#17 QBTS – D-Wave Quantum Inc. | OM Score -92.5 | Near Pass, 3/5 signature, Super Multiple -232.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.32. D-Wave builds quantum-annealing computers and sells cloud access to them. Shares are 40% below their 200-day average, but sell-side targets still imply ~209% upside. Bear: FRM 0.9, MCR 99.3, 59x forward EV/Sales and forward revenue expected to fall 44%. Bull: quantum computing is a high-attention theme, and net cash ~12% of market cap funds years of R&D. Biggest downside factor: a sales multiple far ahead of the business (MCR 99.3). Risks to the short: (1) beta 4.7, the highest in the book, with 19% short interest; (2) industry headlines (from big tech or government) can spark sector-wide rallies; (3) dilutive capital raises often come after rallies, not during declines.
#18 ASAN – Asana, Inc. | OM Score -86.3 | Near Pass (new this week), 4/5 signature, Super Multiple -104.4, Trifecta Ratio 0.56. Asana sells work-management and collaboration software. Shares rose 21% over 10 days, sit 48% above their 200-day average and trade 16% above sell-side targets. Bear: forward revenue growth of only 9.5%, ROIC -37% and BDR 98.4 after a sharp run. Bull: a 5% forward FCF yield, AI products gaining traction, and a founder who has historically bought shares. Biggest downside factor: slow growth combined with a stretched price (BDR 98.4). Risks to the short: (1) no deal news was found, but slower-growth SaaS is a common take-private target; (2) a founder buyout or large insider purchases; (3) margin gains that change the narrative.
#19 PLSE – Pulse Biosciences, Inc. | OM Score -145.0 | Near Pass, 3/5 signature, Super Multiple -285.0, Trifecta Ratio 0.30. Pulse Biosciences develops nanosecond pulsed-field energy systems for cardiac ablation and soft-tissue procedures. Shares rose 20% over 10 days and sit 50% above their 200-day average, and it is back in the book after its Super Multiple returned. Bear: a $3.8B market cap on almost no revenue (1,248x forward EV/Sales), ROIC -73% and MCR 94.6. Bull: pulsed-field ablation is a fast-growing cardiology market, and FDA clearances could unlock revenue. Biggest downside factor: valuation with no revenue base (EV/Sales 1,248x). Risks to the short: (1) FDA approval or positive trial data; (2) its controlling shareholder has funded it before; (3) acquisition interest from large cardiology device makers.
#20 S – SentinelOne, Inc. | OM Score -69.6 | Near Pass (new this week), 2/5 signature, Super Multiple -149.1, Trifecta Ratio 0.71. SentinelOne sells AI-driven endpoint and cloud security software. Shares rose 18% over 10 days and trade right at sell-side targets. Bear: 41x forward EV/EBITDA, ROIC -23% and BDR 95.6 after the run. Bull: FRM 77, forward revenue growth of 21% and net cash ~8% of market cap. Biggest downside factor: price stretch versus profitability (BDR 95.6). Risks to the short: (1) it has been the subject of recurring takeover speculation in a consolidating security sector; (2) strong earnings that show margin expansion; (3) a 2/5 signature means the model’s short case rests mostly on price, not broken fundamentals.
#21 MSTR – Strategy Inc | OM Score -86.2 | Strict Pass (the only one in the short book), 5/5 signature, Super Multiple -326.2, Trifecta Ratio 0.17. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, funded by stock and debt issuance. The stock trades with bitcoin, and sell-side targets sit ~68% above the price. Bear: 146x forward EV/Sales, ROIC -57%, MCR 90.7 and EQS 17, a leveraged bitcoin proxy with little operating business. Bull: a bitcoin rally lifts it with leverage. Biggest downside factor: the most negative Super Multiple in the book (-326). Risks to the short: (1) a bitcoin rally; (2) beta 2.6 and a $56B market cap that attracts momentum traders; (3) index inclusion or new capital raises can push the stock above its holdings value.
#22 GTLB – GitLab Inc. | OM Score -24.6 | Composite (passes neither strict gate), 2/5 signature, Super Multiple -139.4, Trifecta Ratio 0.74. GitLab sells a DevSecOps platform for writing, testing and shipping code. Shares rose 8% over 10 days and trade right at sell-side targets. Bear: 50x forward EV/EBITDA, ROIC -6% and MCR 77. Bull: EQS 56, FRM 81, forward revenue growth of 23% and net cash ~13% of market cap: fundamentally one of the stronger names on the list. Biggest downside factor: valuation (EV/EBITDA 50x). Risks to the short: (1) its weak OM Score (-24.6) is barely below the -20 eligibility line; (2) recurring takeover speculation; (3) AI coding tools could accelerate its growth.
#23 SAIL – SailPoint, Inc. | OM Score -55.7 | Near Pass (new this week), 2/5 signature, Super Multiple -149.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.76. SailPoint sells identity-security software that governs who can access what inside large companies, and is controlled by Thoma Bravo. Shares rose 18% over 10 days and trade at sell-side targets. Bear: 44x forward EV/EBITDA, 8.8x EV/Sales and BDR 95.7. Bull: EQS 62, FRM 79, forward revenue growth of 20% and ROIC near breakeven (-3%): the best fundamentals in the short book. Biggest downside factor: valuation after the rally (MCR 80). Risks to the short: (1) Thoma Bravo control means a buyout or secondary could move the stock quickly; (2) solid fundamentals; (3) a Trifecta Ratio of 0.76 is the highest in the book, so independent validation is weak.
#24 SMR – NuScale Power Corporation | OM Score -109.3 | Near Pass, 4/5 signature, Super Multiple -206.7, Trifecta Ratio 0.00. NuScale designs small modular nuclear reactors and has the first US-approved SMR design. Shares fell 8% over 10 days and sit 45% below their 200-day average, while targets imply ~107% upside. Bear: FRM 0.4, EQS 3.2, MCR 98.7, forward revenue expected to fall 81%, and 20.6x EV/Sales. Bull: net cash is ~48% of market cap, and nuclear demand from AI data centers is a powerful theme. Biggest downside factor: collapsing forward revenue (-81%). Risks to the short: (1) beta 4.3 with 19% short interest; (2) a signed reactor order or government support; (3) the nuclear theme can rally on headlines alone.
#25 PI – Impinj, Inc. | OM Score -30.6 | Composite, 2/5 signature, Super Multiple -193.5, Trifecta Ratio 0.55. Impinj makes RAIN RFID chips and readers used to tag retail goods, packages and supply-chain items. Shares fell 2% over 10 days, with targets ~7% higher. Bear: 55x forward EV/EBITDA, 12.3x EV/Sales, MCR 91.2 and only 3.5% forward revenue growth. Bull: EQS 56, a near-breakeven ROIC (-5.5%) and a dominant market position in RFID. Biggest downside factor: a premium multiple on flat growth (MCR 91). Risks to the short: (1) its weak OM Score (-30.6) is only modestly below the eligibility line; (2) a new retail or logistics adoption wave; (3) beta 2.9.
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